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Li Xunlei: The Channel Is More Efficient Than The Pool.

2010/12/8 9:30:00 52

Absorbing Liquidity Pool And Dredging Channels To Encourage Capital Investment

Recently, about building for hedging or

Absorb liquidity

"

Pond

"It has aroused heated debate. First of all, we are trying to figure out what the" pool "refers to by Zhou Xiaochuan's governor, and some say it is a stock market, but obviously this speculation is not very professional.

According to Ma Delun, vice president of the central bank, "Chi Zi" does not refer to specific market, but a series of policy combinations, including monetary policy tools such as management of foreign exchange, reserve ratio adjustment, open market hedging operation and so on.

However, these tools may be effective only to absorb incremental currencies, and they are also limited to the central bank's capabilities.

But how can we monitor and control such a large stock of M2, which has reached 70 trillion of the scale and nearly 30 trillion of household savings?

The 10 CPI suddenly increased to 4.4%, mainly because food prices rose sharply to 10% over the same period last year. At the same time, the stock market, commodity futures market and other varieties increased sharply in early October.

Is there any causality between the third quarter end of the State Council and the housing restriction measures again? It should exist because the restrictions on speculative investment purchase will inevitably lead to some hot money withdrawn from the real estate market to the stock market, commodities and agricultural [0.00 0.00%] market.

It is easy to think of the flow to the stock market, but the flow to the agricultural products market has led to a sharp rise in food prices, which is a bit of a surprise for policymakers.

Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that the real estate market is the largest pool to absorb liquidity. The total value of housing is about 100 trillion, while the total market capitalization of the stock market is only about 26 trillion, while the deposit reserve will increase by 5 percentage points, which will absorb about 3 trillion.

Therefore, the liquidity absorbed by the deposit reserve is only part of the incremental liquidity at best, while the liquidity of the central bank has only short-term effect.

The most frightening thing is that when the internal structure of M2 has changed, that is, the M2 growth rate has not been speeded up significantly, but a large number of time deposits are beginning to turn into demand, which means that the "cage tiger" is coming out.

Therefore, in China's continuous rapid growth of M2 for many years, the pool is also constantly increasing, absorbing liquidity. The real estate market is naturally the largest pool, and the prices of antiques, artworks, jadeite jade, mahogany furniture and other prices have skyrocketed, and in fact, there have been "small pools".

But we seldom think about it. Once the water in the biggest pool of real estate has overflowed, is there any?

Dredge

channel

Over the years, the investment channels of residents in China have been few. The most pparent, mobile and easily accessible stock market is a low return market, while other markets are not ideal enough, or the threshold is high, such as the real estate market.

Therefore, can we add more investment channels with low threshold, high standard and maturity? For example, overseas mature securities market.

Although we already have QDII, so far, the scale of US $about 70000000000 is not enough to relieve domestic liquidity pressure.

Since 1/3 of the 70 trillion of M2 in China is external inflow, can we also widen the channel of currency outflow? As long as it can flow out to 5%, that is 3 trillion and 500 billion yuan (530 billion US dollars), it is equivalent to the 11 reserve ratio (up 0.5% per time).

In terms of foreign exchange policy, we have always been lenient and strict. Can we change the width and width of imports and exports and balance them? Let us take a look at the increase of M2 in the medium term of the Japanese yen in the appreciation of the Japanese yen in the middle of 80s. We find that most of the year's growth is less than 10% and low inflation. One of the important reasons is that the government encourages overseas investment, and the total value of Japanese overseas investment has reached US $5 trillion and 900 billion.

Recently, the state has taken toll free and booth fees for the pportation and trading of major agricultural products, aiming to dredge circulation channels and reduce channel costs, and the price reduction effect is immediate. This is much more effective than raising the reserve ratio.

In the same way, the pool of A shares is short of water, a lot of big market value blue chips and H share prices have been upside down, and the gem of the gem has become a barrier lake.

Therefore, can we take some measures in the channel to release the flood from the barrier lake, and at the same time raise the water level of the big pool with water shortage by 38%, that is, the market value increased from 26 trillion to 36 trillion, so that the market value of the stock market reached 100% of the GDP ratio (which is a completely normal level in the international capital market).

10 trillion the increase in market value is considerable to absorb liquidity.

If in the external

Encourage capital investment

The channels are much more creative, and the pressure of appreciation and inflation will be greatly alleviated.