RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations Are Normal.

Since March 17, 2014, the central bank has allowed the RMB to double its daily fluctuation against the US dollar, fluctuating 2% around the middle price.

But over the past year, although the renminbi has increased the volatility, the daily volatility has not been so close to the "limit plate" as it was in January 26th.

This makes the market's expectation of the depreciation of the RMB in recent international environmental changes heating up again.

There is a background in it that has to be mentioned.

In January 22nd, the European Central Bank introduced quantitative easing policy. During the same period, the major central banks of the world implemented loose policies successively, which made the devaluation pressure of RMB sharply increase.

After the European Central Bank announced the QE, the Central Bank of China lowered its central parity price during the day, which has also become one of the factors driving RMB devaluation.

However, the assessment of the industry is that, despite the new QE of the European Central Bank, the yuan is against the RMB.

The downward pressure on cross-border capital flows has increased, but in the medium to long term, the overall exchange rate of the renminbi will remain stable.

In fact, despite the continued depreciation of the spot exchange rate since November last year, the central parity of exchange rate on behalf of the central bank has been very small, even slightly appreciating in December.

As of January 26th, the middle price of the exchange rate was 6.1384, corresponding to the maximum depreciation rate of spot exchange rate of 2%, and the upper limit was 6.24.

Some analysts believe that this means that the current spot rate is close to the lower limit.

If the central bank does not voluntarily reduce the middle price of the exchange rate, the space for the spot exchange rate to continue to depreciate sharply is almost the end.

Well, this is right.

Does it affect the geometry? Will it make A shares fall? Some analysts believe that China is fully equipped with foreign exchange reserves and relatively closed capital controls, unlike the current Russian or Asian financial turmoil in the current period. Therefore, financial markets and securities markets are not likely to have a vicious chain impact as long as there is no devaluation of the cliff type currency.

Therefore, the impact of the stock market may be more reflected in the psychological level.

Of course, one thing can not be ignored, that is, under the current circumstances, in the short term, whether the strengthening of the RMB devaluation expectation will lead to the trend of outflow of funds will continue to strengthen, which may make the A share market under pressure.

Such worries are understandable.

Because from overseas experience, every round of local currency in emerging markets.

Both are accompanied by capital outflows and stock market pullbacks.

Therefore, the depreciation of the renminbi may also lead to temporary capital outflow.

However, we should see that the devaluation of the Renminbi should be more influenced by the external market.

At the same time, considering the stabilizing effect of the central parity of RMB and the continuous large trade surplus in the first few months, it is not expected that the RMB will depreciate sharply.

Therefore, in the long run, the impact on the A share market will not be too great.