The Pressure Of State Cotton Stores Is Playing An Important Role In Restraining The Upward Trend Of Cotton Prices.

Last week, the focus of domestic cotton market spot prices moved slightly upward. Zheng cotton futures closed down after a few days of high inflation on Monday.

Some agencies issued a research report that, under the influence of the agricultural development policy, Xinjiang cotton enterprises under the pressure of a new round of loan repayment, the sales pressure increased further, plus the cotton on the market at present.

Still relatively abundant, some agencies believe that the actual market price of the spot market does not exclude the possibility of moving downward.

With the control of cotton imports in China, the impact of imported cotton on China has been significantly reduced.

At present, the import price of cotton in the quota is 11195 yuan / ton, lower than the domestic cotton price, and imports still have advantages, but the quota is only 890 thousand tons. Last year, the import volume was as high as 2 million 440 thousand tons.

In the first three months, 450 thousand tons of cotton were imported, accounting for half of the quotas, and subsequent cotton prices were further constrained.

Entering the May, the market began to pay attention to the 2015/2016 year.

The supply and demand situation, the new year's supply easing situation has tightened expectations, and this year's cotton planting area is expected to decline significantly.

According to statistics of China Cotton Association, in 2015, China's cotton planting area was 48 million 430 thousand mu, a decrease of 24% over the same period last year.

In addition, based on the expectation of El Nino extreme weather, it is estimated that the output per unit in 2015 is also lower than that in 2014. In 2015, China's output will decline, with a preliminary estimate of about 10%.

Consumer demand is expected to improve, with an increase of 1.5% to 2%.

Judging from past years, 5 and June are the relative peak season for cotton yarn and cotton cloth demand.

Downstream demand has gradually improved, while textile mill yarn and grey fabric inventory is relatively low, and there is a demand for replenishment of enterprises, which will form a certain support for cotton and cotton yarn market, and there is a stage of recovery.

Galaxy Futures Research Report shows that the current cotton textile market orders do have signs of improvement, mainly stimulated by seasonal seasonal demand, but this demand is phased. Once the peak season is over, the demand for cotton in the downstream will be very difficult to continue.

It is understood that

A large textile enterprise is the top ten textile enterprise in China. From the end of the year to the present, the order of cotton yarn has increased, and the initial cotton yarn inventory has been maintained for about 15 days.

Under the stimulation of orders after the year, the current stock of cotton yarn has increased, mainly in response to the demand of the latter market.

But in the past one or two weeks, the shipment of cotton yarn has slowed down, mainly because the new orders have not kept up.

The above report also shows that the substitution effect of imported cotton yarn on domestic cotton yarn also affects cotton demand.

When domestic cotton yarn demand is improving, traders' enthusiasm for importing cotton yarn has obviously improved. This year, under the seasonal consumption stimulation, the shipment date of some imported cotton yarns has been set to June and July.