Home >

It Is Not Just Political Storms That Plagued Emerging Markets.

2015/12/3 19:09:00 16

Emerging MarketsCommoditiesDebt Difficulties

Fitch Ratings, an international rating agency, warned that it seems not only political turmoil, commodity price collapse, and economic growth that plagued emerging markets, but their credit rating is also facing a new dimension of threat - the rapidly growing debt of families and businesses.

Brazil became the first BRIC to open up the great depression.

Last year, Brazil's economy grew by only 0.1%, but the inflation rate was 6.41%.

Brazil has shrunk in the three quarter of this year and inflation has risen more than 10% over the past quarter.

Alberto Ramos, chief economist of Latin America, quoted Goldman Sachs as saying: "the economic recession caused by macroeconomic imbalance has evolved into a complete economic depression under the current situation of severe domestic demand shrinking."

"The challenge facing Brazil is partly a reflection of the rapid growth and high level of private sector debt, and also highlights the downside risks faced by other countries," the Fitch report wrote.

Fitch reported on Wednesday that in seven large

emerging market

The proportion of private sector debt to GDP will reach 77% by the end of the year.

This proportion has surpassed the level of government debt, causing their economic and financial systems to face "downside risks", according to Fitch's analyst Ed Parker and James McCormack.

The report points out that the proportion of private sector debt in Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Mexico has risen sharply this year due to the sharp depreciation of the local currency.

This may drag down the government's credit rating by reducing GDP growth, worsening the fiscal deficit, putting pressure on foreign reserves or further fluctuations in foreign exchange markets.

"Past financial crises have shown that private sector debt is often pferred to the national balance sheet," Fitch wrote.

"Under pressure, it may put pressure on sovereign credit rating."

Among the countries covered by Fitch reports, Brazil's private sector debt accounted for the highest share of GDP, reaching 93% and Mexico's share of 47%.

The largest proportion of private sector debt rose in Brazil in 2005-2014.

In September this year, the S & P rating lowered its credit rating to "junk level".

along with

Brazil

The government has struggled against the longest recession since 1930s. Brazil's real estate has become one of the worst performing currencies in the year, and the US dollar has depreciated by 46% to 3.8671 this year.

The spread of Brazil's anti corruption operation has also made it difficult for the government to concentrate on coping with economic hardship. Dilma Rousseff's efforts to strengthen financial accounts and restore confidence have not stopped.

The Central Bank of Brazil has raised interest rates to the highest level since 2006, inhibiting demand and stimulating unemployment growth, but failed to curb inflation of up to two digits.

Last week, after the chairman and CEO Andre Esteves was arrested, the price of BTG Pactual, the largest independent investment bank in Brazil, plummeted, at a rate of 39%.

At the same time, he also arrested the leader of the ruling party in the house of Lords, Senator Delcidio Amaral. His failure will not only slow down the settlement process of the government's budget disputes, but also shake the view that the incumbent members can not shake the outside world.

Asset Management Co AZ Legan investment manager Fausto Gouveia said.

Brazil

All the members of Congress are considering how to protect themselves and avoid similar fate with Amaral rather than considering the economic measures that the government hopes to pass.

This also makes the key figure in Brazil's tightening policy, the Brazil finance minister Joaquim Levy more isolated, "he is the only person talking about financial measures, but no one is listening."


  • Related reading

Whether The A Share Market Should Be Liberalized "T+0" Has Attracted Much Attention.

financial news
|
2015/12/2 19:59:00
18

人民币入篮助推金融改革

financial news
|
2015/12/1 20:49:00
24

YOUNGOR Becomes Zhejiang Property Insurance Two Shareholder Or Investment Property Insurance Industry

financial news
|
2015/12/1 14:50:00
73

RMB Is Included In SDR "Face Is Bigger Than Inside".

financial news
|
2015/12/1 14:04:00
16

How Much Will RMB Affect The SDR Basket?

financial news
|
2015/12/1 9:02:00
149
Read the next article

A Woolen Coat Needs A Belt To Wear.

The dress in autumn and winter will be heavy. You can choose a lace coat, wear a belt, and look thinner and lighter. Next, let's take a look at the detailed information with Xiaobian.