Cotton Futures Rose After The Return To Spot Trading Volume Increased

Last week (September 13-20), the Sino US negotiating team resumed contact, and the two sides released good intentions. The cotton futures market was encouraged, and the internal and external markets rose on Monday. But the new cotton market is going to be listed on a large scale. There is no substantive good continuation of the negotiations. The relative price of cotton has steadily stabilized and the market confidence and real consumption have stabilized, and spot trading has increased slightly. Cotton spinning is coming to an end, and the cotton mill is preparing for the auction. The average price has risen by 179 yuan / ton. Picking cotton picking gradually expanded, the acquisition of sporadic scales, the overall time delayed, the acquisition of the main body relatively reduced, the mentality of entering the market more cautious, the purchase price rose slightly. Cotton price CNCottonB index price 13007 yuan / ton, week rose 31 yuan / ton, compared with Zheng cotton futures CF2001 contract, spot premium 57 yuan / ton.

Futures. Last Monday, Zheng cotton and high inflation, but Chen cotton still has about 1 million 600 thousand tons of inventory, new cotton will soon be listed, coupled with the continuous decline since May, the fear of falling thinking, cotton prices will soon return to calm after the high price, CF2001 contract back to 13000 yuan / ton below. At present, Chen cotton futures have about 400000 tons of Chen cotton warehouse receipt, and new cotton is gradually coming into the market, and sales pressure is greater. The disk will face pressure after the acquisition. The main factors that affect cotton prices in recent years are the progress of Sino US trade negotiations and the weather in cotton fields.

US market: Sino US negotiations have no follow-up good release, export data pessimistic, new cotton is coming to a large number of listing, production increased, the US disk continued callback, December contract closed on Friday 60.57 cents / pound, week fell 171 points, this week may test the 40 day moving average and 60 dollar integer support. Continue to track the progress of trade negotiations and cotton weather.

On the spot. Market confidence and consumption are getting warmer. Textile enterprises have been piecemeal replenishment, procurement has picked up, and daily shipments of main warehouses in the mainland have increased slightly. In 2019, the central reserve cotton production will end at the end of September, and the cotton mill will actively take stock of the stock. The turnover rate will occupy a high position and the average transaction price will also increase. In order to return the funds, fixed price resources are increased more, promotional efforts are changed to price, prices are close to or slightly lower than spot price resources, and the effect is obvious. Price point resources are similar in quality, different enterprises are different in terms of purchase cost and sales intention. The base price of the offer is relatively large. The price of the mainland library is concentrated at 12800-13300 yuan / ton, and hand picking cotton is slightly higher than that of machine picked cotton. Customs clearance India cotton 12500-13300 yuan / ton, relatively low, West Africa cotton, Brazil cotton maintained at 13000-13500 yuan / ton.

Acquisition of new cotton. The mainland and Xinjiang have sporadic acquisitions, driven by the increase in lint prices, prices rose slightly, the southern Xinjiang Price 2.8-3.1 yuan / Jin, North Xinjiang is higher than the southern Xinjiang in 3-3.1 yuan / Jin. According to the current price of 1 yuan / kg cottonseed price, the acquisition cost of new cotton is basically in line with the sales price of Chen cotton, and once the bulk listing is made, the sales of Chen cotton will become pressure. The cotton enterprises that have already started to weigh in the territory are still concentrated in the mainland's leasing enterprises in Xinjiang. Most of the processing enterprises have withdrawn from the acquisition this year due to the serious losses of last year or the sale of Chen cotton stocks. Some of the processing enterprises have withdrawn from the acquisition this year, and the Corps also plans to withdraw from the acquisition process. This year's acquisition body and strength are relatively reduced.

Operation suggestion. Chen cotton is well stocked, new cotton will soon be on the market. After that, consumption will remain low. Good results lie in the Sino US trade negotiations, and we will continue to pay attention to the weather in the cotton area and the progress of Sino US negotiations.