Market Analysis: There Is No Obvious Positive Factor In The Domestic And Foreign Cotton Market In The Short Term

Zheng Mian is dominated by weak operation. In terms of spot goods, the latest cotton price index at 328 level was 14836 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In terms of spot goods, most of the sales bases within 4129/29B/Miscellaneous 3.5 of Northern Xinjiang Machinery Mining on April 25, 2024 are CF01+600 or above, and a few are below 600. The sales bases of 3129/29B/Miscellaneous 1.5 of Southern Xinjiang Machinery Mining are CF01+650 or above, and a few are below this price, which are all self raised in Xinjiang.

The overall market of pure cotton yarn is weak, and downstream buying is not active. Although terminal orders have improved, the range is not large, and the operation is cautious. With the increase of stock orders in local markets, the growth of the inventory level of cotton mills has slowed down, but it is still high as a whole. The Guangdong market reflects that some textile mills have recovered slightly from the start up, with production orders as the main part. Weaving mills in other regions actively digest inventory, and their willingness to ship is dominant.

According to the statistics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of the week of December 12, 2024, the inspection volume of American upland cotton had reached 2.4198 million tons, and the inspection progress had reached 80.79%, 10.5% faster than that of the previous year. Pay attention to the changes in weekly contracted sales of American cotton this week and the interest rate reduction of the Federal Reserve. The domestic processing volume of new cotton reached 5.35 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 19.5%. The market has raised its cotton output forecast in the near future. The terminal retail data showed an average performance, and the retail sales of textiles and clothing in November fell 4.5% year on year. The reserve strength of the downstream industry before the Spring Festival is weak, and the inventory of finished products is rising steadily. There is no obvious positive factor in the short term, and the weak operation is maintained.

2、 Industry news

1. According to the national cotton trading market, as of December 17, 2024/2025, Xinjiang has processed 5.3483 million tons of cotton, an increase of 51000 tons over the previous day, and 871800 tons over the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%.

2. According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in November 2024, China imported 110000 tons of cotton, the same month on month, a year-on-year decrease of 200000 tons. From January to November 2024, China imported 2.5 million tons of cotton, a year-on-year increase of 800000 tons. In November 2024, China imported 120000 tons of cotton yarn, the same month on month, a year-on-year decrease of 30000 tons. From January to November 2024, China imported 1.37 million tons of cotton yarn, a year-on-year decrease of 160000 tons.

3. Conab said that the cotton output in 2024/25 may increase by 1.06%, reaching a record 3.74 million tons, an increase of 0.1% over 2023/24. The total area may reach 2.008 million hectares, up 0.32% month on month and 3.3% over 2023/24. Compared with the previous quarter, the productivity may decline by 3.1%, but compared with that in October 2024 Compared with the data released in August, the productivity increased by 0.73%, reaching 1845 kilograms per hectare.