Policy Expectations Dragged Down Cotton Futures

Zhengzhou cotton futures contract 1101 closed on Friday (May 21st) to 16895 yuan / ton, down 1.08%.

As the NDRC is seriously concerned about the rising trend of cotton prices, the policy is expected to bring pressure to the market. Even so, the gap between supply and demand is further expanded, and the decline of cotton futures is limited.

In terms of weather, the temperature in the northern part of Xinjiang is low and rain is not conducive to the growth of cotton in recent years. The temperature in southern Xinjiang is rising, but strong winds and sand are not conducive to the growth of cotton. The rainfall in the Yellow River basin is generally conducive to cotton growth. The intensity of rainfall in some parts of the Yangtze River Basin is too high, which is not conducive to cotton growth.

In recent years, some cotton seedlings have been affected by low temperature, heavy rain and strong winds, and some of them need to be re planted. The level of domestic production may decline, and the total output is expected to be unchanged from 09 years.

In the western regions of the United States, the general rainfall is conducive to cotton growth; the central and southern regions generally have large rainfall, and the flood range is large, which is not conducive to the growth of cotton.

It is estimated that the US cotton area will grow by 15%, and the sowing schedule and growth status will be the same as in previous years.

Spot market, 21, the domestic 328 spot price index continued to rise slightly, the acceleration has accelerated.

Due to the strong demand in the downstream market, the stock is in urgent need.

The mainstream factory greatly increased cotton purchase quotation, further promoting spot price rise.

On the other hand, cotton enterprises are reluctant to wait and see, waiting for prices to continue to rise.

Recently, textile enterprises in Shandong, Hunan, Zhejiang and other places have been getting cotton import quotas, and the NDRC has continued to study measures to curb the rise in cotton prices. The spot rally may slow down, but it is hard to stop because global inventory levels are at a low level.

At present, the stock market has strong support for the futures market.

Downstream market, recently, the price of cotton yarn has gone up slightly, the sales volume is good, the price of cotton yarn has slipped, other yarn sales are general; the Changyi market in Shandong has remained stable and sales volume is general; the total cotton yarn trading volume in Shengze market is not large, the price has slightly increased, and the prices of blended yarn products and polyester cotton yarn varieties continue to rise, and the cotton yarn market is still acceptable, with little turnover; Jiangsu Changzhou Hutang all cotton yarn varieties increase, and polyester cotton yarn sales increase.

The expected slowdown in the EU's economic growth may affect some exports.

But nationwide, cotton yarn hoarding enthusiasm is rising, textile mills are basically in short supply, orders are full, and big factories continue to raise prices.

The growth of the textile industry is much better than previously expected, and the global cotton yarn situation is more optimistic. China's imports of cotton yarn from Pakistan are hindered by the rising tariffs, and the demand for domestic cotton yarn is further expanded.

This is very advantageous to cotton futures.

In general, the European sovereign debt crisis is coming to an end and has become the pressure of economic growth in the United States.

European countries need to tighten their spending so that economic growth slows down, and they also affect their demand for American goods.

As a result, the US stock market has plummeted, and the rise in unemployment has contributed to the decline.

Some data are also reflecting a slowdown in the US economic recovery and optimistic expectations are falling, so worries about the decline in commodity demand growth are beginning to show.

Crude oil fell sharply, bringing heavy pressure to all commodity futures.

Cotton in Zhengzhou is affected by this influence.

As the NDRC is seriously concerned about the rising trend of cotton prices, some recent policy expectations have put pressure on the market.

Even so, the resources and measures available to the government have been very limited and missed an important opportunity to stimulate the cotton planting area to pick up.

On the other hand, domestic demand for cotton yarn is strong, and the demand for international clothing continues to improve, resulting in a further expansion of supply and demand gap.

Cotton futures will overcome the immediate drag and may not take too much time.