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Expert Analysis: September ICAC&Nbsp; World Cotton Supply And Demand Report

2010/9/6 20:18:00 64

The supply and demand forecast issued by the international cotton advisory board (ICAC) in September 1st held that the rising demand for cotton and the tight stock prices led to the rise of international cotton prices.

2010/11, global

Cotton yield

And consumption is expected to be around 25 million 100 thousand tons, ending inventory is expected to remain at 9 million 100 thousand tons, inventories consumption ratio decreased from 37% to 36%, the lowest level since 1989/90.

Recently, global stock tension has promoted the rise of international cotton prices.

Compared with last month, this month's global production has been cut by 125 thousand tons, mainly due to the damage caused by floods in Pakistan to more than 20% cotton fields. Some of them are destroyed.

Cotton production in Pakistan decreased by 15% to 1 million 900 thousand tons in 2010/11.

The rainy weather in the Yangtze River Basin of China has reduced cotton production accordingly.

However, the reduction in production in Pakistan and China has been offset by the increase in production in India. Cotton production in India is expected to reach a record high of 5 million 700 thousand tons, as the annual monsoon yield has improved significantly this year.

The United States is still the driving force for global cotton production, with total output estimated at 4 million tons, up 52% over the same period last year.

2010/11, global

cotton

Consumption is increasing by 155 thousand tons, due to the increase in consumption in China's 2008/09, 2009/10 and 2010/11.

Meanwhile, the sustained recovery of the global economy continues to promote cotton consumption growth.

However, the second consecutive annual increase in cotton prices may limit the increase in cotton consumption.

In 2010/11, the growth of global cotton consumption is mostly from China and India. Pakistan's domestic consumption may be reduced due to floods.

2010/11, global cotton

Import volume

It is estimated to be 8 million 500 thousand tons, an increase of 9% over the same period last year, and China's imports are expected to grow at 3 million 100 thousand tons, up 29% over the same period last year, and this is the main driving force for global growth.

The Chinese government has recently sold cotton reserves again, which has led to a sharp decline in China's cotton stocks in 2009/10.

The import volume of Turkey is expected to be 786 thousand tons, and the US cotton export volume is expected to be 3 million 300 thousand tons, an increase of 27% over the same period last year, and the export volume of India, Brazil and Australia will also increase.

The proportion of US cotton exports to global cotton exports will increase from 34% to 39%.

ICAC estimates that the average A index in the 2010/11 year is 89 cents, and the 95% confidence interval is 76-106 cents, up 15% over the previous year.

In 2010/11, the global initial inventory is expected to account for only 27% of the supply, significantly lower than the previous year's 35%.

This proportion has remained at around 32% since 1990/91.

The decline in inventory at the beginning of the year means that the cotton output has a greater impact on cotton prices this year.