Nearly 40 Domestic Enterprises Are Expected To Go Public Before 2012.

Used to be China

But any industry that inherits the old and new fashions is extremely strong.

After 2004, mainland China's capital market was greeted by a group of brand clothing companies such as the seven wolves.

By the year 2010, more and more companies were coming to the market in a hot way, from the Shanghai and Shenzhen, Hongkong, NYSE to NASDAQ, business models from traditional manufacturing to brand operation, and then to e-commerce.

The pattern of A share textile and garment plate is changing.

A typical symbol is the total state of the United States.

But a careful reading of dozens of prospectuses and hundreds of brokers' research reports in recent listed companies reveals that almost all enterprises have similar competitive advantages and arrange similar investment projects. All researchers favor brands, channels and Nike models.

Logic is right, but it is specious.

How to select leaders in the tide of listed companies?

Where is the investment risk?

At present, there seems to be a lack of original insights in the market.

Or you can only learn from history. In the triumph of listing, don't forget those not harmonious consonants -- ITAT, PPG, Hai Lan's home, and the latest sin and the left bank...

Nearly 40 domestic enterprises are expected to go public before 2012.

The head of the China clothing association said in an interview with reporters, "six months ago, we conducted a survey of the more than 60 best clothing enterprises in the country, and we found that 60% of the enterprises had a listing plan before 2012."

In January 28, 2011, the Shanghai Environmental Protection Bureau website published the announcement of the environmental protection verification announcement of the two companies, and the listing plan of Shanghai Li Rui dress Limited by Share Ltd was exposed.

Public information shows that Li Rui dress was established in June 2005, with a registered capital of 90 million yuan, mainly engaged in the display and sale of clothing and accessories.

Earlier, it was reported that the company began to receive the guidance of people's livelihood securities in preparation for listing in 2008.

Li Rui is just the latest example of domestic service enterprises cluster landing in capital market.

Reporter statistics, only the A share market textile and garment sector, in 2010, a total of 11 enterprises to achieve listing, both Caesar, Hinur, search at the top clothing enterprises, including enterprises from home textiles, shoemaking and other sub sectors.

At the same time, the number of Busen clothing and Semir clothing that has been released but has not yet been released has a huge record.

In the past two years, the change of the A textile and garment sector is not only an increase in the number of companies, but also a rich market segmentation and business model.

For example, in October 30, 2009, the main outdoor sports product Pathfinder landed on the gem, becoming one of the first 28 enterprises in the national gem.

The listing of the Pathfinder fills the gap of the market segments of outdoor apparel products of A shares.

It is worth noting that at present, the company is still the only gem enterprise in the textile and garment sector.

For example, in November 17, 2010, we searched the SME Board of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

The biggest feature of the company is the youth leisure wear market which is deeply ploughing the domestic three or four line cities. Its main brand is the "trend front" brand, and the concept of "fashion going to the countryside" is first introduced in the industry.

It is such a "soil" brand that has gained great recognition in the A share market. The issue price earnings ratio has reached 113.64 times, the highest price earnings ratio in the history of small and medium-sized plates, and the highest price earnings ratio of A share textile and garment enterprises in two records.

What is worth mentioning is that the Pathfinder and search all are the rising stars in the field of clothing circulation. They share a similar "Nike model" business model with the American state garments listed in 2008, that is, they initially outsource product manufacturing links, while retail links are mainly franchisees, and they are focused on Design, development and marketing.

This light asset operation mode has greatly reduced the original capital investment, abandoned the manufacturing links with low added value in the industrial chain, and increased the rate of return on capital.

Further expanding the field of vision is a continuation of the trend of domestic enterprises competing for foreign capital markets after 2007. In 2010, there were also several models that were representative and innovative, locating in the market segments.

If Dr. frog was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in September, it became the first enterprise in the children's clothing industry to list in Hong Kong, and then the good kids kept up with the listing. Mcglaughlin landed on NASDAQ in October, not only becoming China's B2C first stock, but also a symbol of the high recognition of the clothing online sales mode by the capital market.

"Six months ago, we conducted an investigation of more than 60 top garment enterprises in the country, of which 20% were listed and 80% were not listed."

"We found that before 2012, 60% of the enterprises had a listing plan, and the preferred place of listing was Hongkong, China, the United States," the head of the China clothing association said in an interview with reporters.

The assembly number has blown up.

In the next two years, more garment enterprises will rush to the capital market, and there will be fundamental changes in the competition pattern and development mode of the catalytic industry.

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"Nike mode" service enterprises become the new favorite of stock market

From the foundry enterprises listed on the market, YOUNGOR listed as the largest company in the market value, and then to the United States and the apparel market to replace YOUNGOR become the market leader, clearly reflects the changing pattern of the market structure.

Let's make a survey of the changes in the history and market structure of A shares.

Currently, there are 77 listed companies in the A share textile and garment sector, of which 3/5 belongs to the OEM manufacturing enterprise. The business mode is mainly OEM and so on, and the market is mainly in foreign countries.

Most of these enterprises landed on the A shares in the 90s of last century. Since then, most of the listed companies have been finding the best competitive power to achieve specialized operation and upgrading of the models, and the number has been greatly reduced.

The latest cases are Kim Feida, and the environmental verification of leirui.

Before 1995, the A - share textile and clothing enterprises were almost all type of industry type enterprises.

The first change in the market pattern appeared at the end of 90s. The landmark event was the listing of Chinese fir shares in January 30, 1996 and YOUNGOR in November 19, 1998.

Since then, the business of production and retail, and the brand of its own brand has begun to be concerned by the capital market.

Since then, more and more OEM enterprises have begun to try to pform: the business concept has changed from producer orientation to market orientation, and the focus of business has changed from product oriented to brand oriented.

In 2004, the seven wolves, the 2007 good birds, and even 2010, the market of Kaiser and so on were typical cases.

By the year 2008, there were two changes in the market structure. The listing of Smith Barney apparel symbolized the "Nike model" of garment enterprises recognized by A share investors.

In the face of the capital market that has always been fond of "mode and concept", the listing of Smith Barney has undoubtedly been a great success. The following Pathfinder, search special, Semir and so on have duplicated the same path.

From the foundry enterprises listed on the market, YOUNGOR listed as the largest company in the market value, and then to the United States and the apparel market to replace YOUNGOR become the market leader, clearly reflects the changing pattern of the market structure.

"Since 2004, dozens of well-known brand clothing enterprises have been listed, making the market value of such enterprises accounted for nearly half of the total market value of the plate.

Over the past two years, brand companies have increased significantly in terms of income and net profit, or gross margins and net interest rates, which are far more than traditional manufacturing enterprises, and the market is willing to overestimate the value of high growth enterprises, thereby driving the overall valuation of the clothing sector to move upward.

Many journalists interviewed by the Securities researcher said so.

Another interesting statistic is borrowed from the Research Report of the securities company. From 2001 to 2009, more than 1700 reports on textile and clothing were launched, of which 450 were industry reports.

From the point of view of the topic, 2002-2003 years, industry researchers are concerned about the cost of enterprises, such as cotton prices and polyester prices. A very significant change in 2004-2005 years is that researchers focus more on the export environment, because that is the period when the export policy is released; and from the second half of 2005, there are industry research reports discussing brand and mode, which means changing from simple attention to export to the change of industry management mode. Until now, almost all industry reports have thoroughly studied brand, channel and mode.

Such a statistic can accurately describe the changing course of market investors' value judgement and valuation methods for listed service enterprises.

Matthew effect spawned competitive listing

After the successful listing of new brands and new models, the huge resource allocation effect of the capital market has accelerated the industry reshuffle, and has drawn the gap between the listed companies and the non-listed company from the aspects of management mode and corporate governance.

The "Matthew effect" of this listing has been increasingly fermented in the garment industry of the mainland.

What is the fundamental driving force behind the change of service enterprises?

Why is there a tide of centralized listing of services in 2010?

Why more companies are planning to go public?

According to the above brokers' Research Report, it is also known that the change in the mode of service enterprises comes first from the pformation of the operating environment -- the irreversible rise of the cost factors such as cotton prices and labor costs, and with the appreciation of the renminbi in 2005, greatly reducing the profit margins of the OEM enterprises. By the 2008 financial crisis, the external demand market has shrunk, and the enterprises have been passively pferred to the domestic market, paying more attention to the building of their own brands, and deeply thinking about the innovation of the business mode.

"When the model is formed and chased the brand is the current industry consensus, the competition pattern is the competition of capital strength in the initial stage.

Therefore, successful listing and financing is an important help for a company to gain the leading edge. "

A veteran in the industry told reporters that "when the crisis just passed in 2009 and 2010, the domestic garment industry is at the moment of change and controversy. Everyone is stretched to the bone, and everyone is grinding the knife."

"When many clothing enterprises have a certain strength in brand, R & D, and channel, they are competing for capital capability."

Xia Guoxin, chairman of Shenzhen's song, thinks so. "And now the competition is just a little bit different, but the outcome may be totally different.

If a brand has invested tens of millions of yuan, and another brand has no money to invest, the result of competition can be imagined.

It is in this way that in 2009, the company introduced 150 million investment from Carlyle Group and made a listing plan.

"There is no shortage of money, but the standard of lack of money is how much you want to invest.

ZARA's investment in a warehouse is 1 billion euros.

If you have higher requirements and compete with international brands, I will ask you in reverse: what do you compete for?

And what do we need to attract talent?

Xia Guoxin emphasized.

More importantly, after the successful listing of new brands and new models, the huge resource allocation effect of the capital market has accelerated the industry reshuffle, and has drawn the gap between the listed companies and the non-listed company from the aspects of management mode and corporate governance.

The "Matthew effect" of this listing has been increasingly fermented in the garment industry of the mainland.

The reporter extracts the introduction of competitors in the prospectus of Listed Companies in recent years.

For example, Semir's prospectus called Smith bond, YISHION, JEANSWEST, Baleno and Giordano as its main competitors, and all of them have been listed except YISHION. In the small and medium sized boards of Shenzhen, the United States is listed in Hongkong.

For example, the prospectus of men's clothing brands such as Kaiser, Busen, Hinur and so on all indicated that the domestic men's wear market is highly competitive and has many brands. YOUNGOR, red bean stock, keno technology, Shanshan stock, seven wolves, good news birds and other successful companies have successfully established their own scale advantages relying on the strength of the capital market, and are the main competitors of the company.

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Enterprise investment logic "unified" risk of Tibet

The rule of market commonsense is that when a direction of development gets consistency, the greater the risk is hidden.

Brand, channel, Nike mode, everything sounds so right, where is the risk hidden?

When the long discarded sector is becoming a new favorite of funds, when all brokerages research and reporting consistency praise the great significance of "Mei Bang mode", when the search is launched at a record price earnings ratio of 113 times...

From the point of view of investors, whether coins have been turned to the other side?

In the overseas capital market, foreseeable discussions can be made.

In January 5th, the domestic men's wear brand left the announcement, becoming the first enterprise in the us to list in 2011.

But what is intriguing is that the company postponed its planned listing in January 28th to January 31st, then postponed it to February 11th again, and yesterday announced the announcement to February 18th.

At the same time, the left bank has announced the issue price range of 10.50-12.50 U.S. dollars, now down to 7 U.S. dollars, the amount of planned financing from 79 million U.S. dollars to 42 million U. S. dollars.

The news of the cold left bank listing in the US is not the concern of mainland investors in the surge of market listings. But for the industry, it releases a signal worth pondering.

"The cold market on the left bank is likely to be two reasons. First of all, the stock price has dropped sharply since its listing in November last year. Secondly, the US capital market is worried about the core competitiveness of Chinese apparel brand operators and the authenticity of its performance."

A researcher from Wall Street investment bank told reporters.

Turning to the prospectus of shin and the left bank, we can see that two companies are located in Shishi, Fujian, and their business models are typically Nike models, which are mainly outsourced and sold mainly through distributors.

By the end of 2009, 1181 retail stores were officially authorized by the government, and the total number of 1044 stores in the whole country was basically the same as of September 30, 2010. The financial structure was very similar. Compared with the mainland and Hongkong listed brands, the two companies had a fast turnover rate of inventory, a low rate of expense, a high net interest rate, and a high cash volume on the books.

Many financial observers have questioned the existence of serious financial fraud in the two companies. The two simple argument is that they can not find the names and addresses of these more than 1000 stores when they enter the official website of the two companies. Moreover, there are no two listed companies on the list of top 100 enterprises in 2009, and the China Textile Industry Association's "2008-2009 competitiveness of China's textile and garment enterprises in 50".

Behind the financial challenge is actually the question of the magic business model - the extremely small assets and the super high turnover, which are far beyond the profitability of the industry leaders. Where is the "gate of life"?

In view of this, we can see the domestic capital market.

An interesting phenomenon is that we have opened dozens of Prospectuses of clothing companies in recent years. We can see that all people maintain a high degree of "Cognitive Unity" in the development trend of the industry, the core competitiveness of the company, and the arrangement of investment and investment projects.

From a detailed point of view, there are no more than three prospects for the development of the industry. The market is in the domestic market, the core competitiveness is brand and channel, the best mode is Nike style light assets operation, and its competitiveness is the three mentioned above.

The rule of market commonsense is that when a direction of development gets consistency, the greater the risk is hidden.

But brands, channels, Nike models all sound so right, where are the risks hidden?

And if the mud and sand are mixed up and the dragon snake is mixed up, how should investors distinguish the gold gravel in the general expression?

"How to measure the value of a brand? What is a brand that is long-lasting and viable, what is blooming in a short time, and that it is ripened by a huge amount of advertising?

How can we assess the risk of a wide range of channels in a short period of time?

In a recent small investment research seminar in the capital circle, senior people put forward a series of thoughts about investment clothing enterprises.

"As for supply chain integration and Nike mode, it is now known that processing links only get the commercial value of clothing brand 10%-20%; channel operation obtains 30%-40%; brand operation has 40%-50%.

Therefore, in theory, everyone wants to be a Nike model, and they feel that they can integrate the supply chain and monopolize the two sides of the "smile curve".

ITAT and PPG "nightmare" still exist

Even if everything seems to be worrying, it is still significant to recall a typical case of Nike failure.

Even if everything seems to be worrying, it is still significant to recall a typical case of Nike failure.

In 2008, when the American bells were ringing on the small and medium-sized boards of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the listing of ITAT in Hongkong became increasingly rugged. Before listing, the sponsors Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch quit, and the first hearing failed to pass the listing. Regulators began to pay attention to the confusion of their business models, and the market questioned their sales data more directly.

"Without paying the rent, it will be able to take up the site, and not pay the deposit, but it will enable more than 2800 garment manufacturers to work hard to supply them."

Since the first member store opened in Shenzhen in September 16, 2004, ITAT is a shining star in the clothing industry, especially in the field of clothing circulation.

The essence of ITAT's business model is also the "Nike mode". However, it has greatly and creatively created an "iron triangle" mode, that is, "zero loan, zero field rent, zero inventory" mode.

ITAT's crazy expansion of its bottom line and logic is what it advertised: "making use of the surplus capacity in China's clothing production and processing and the cheap venues and resources brought about by the commercial real estate investment enthusiasm" to make "zero risk" expansion.

Looking back on its prospectus, besides the business mode, ITAT has a strong brand -- 200 million of its advertising campaign, from CCTV to Australia satellite TV.

ITAT heavy Channel - two years in 31 provinces and cities in the country opened more than 800 stores, an average of 1.2 days / days, its expansion rate in the global chain industry is also rare, and all are direct stores.

ITAT knows that competition for channels will become increasingly fierce.

In site selection, it is a nationwide expansion of "opportunity oriented, almost no demand for target cities, business circles and properties". On the combination of formats, it is "multi format and comprehensive attack".

From the failure of listing in 2008 to the end of 2009, ITAT immediately fell into bankruptcy and bankruptcy.

Defeat the king.

Transposition thinking, if ITAT starts with Nike's conservative expansion route, how will it fight against the US and other industry leaders?

If its radical line can survive the winter of 2008 and the capital chain keeps on, how much competition pressure will soon accumulate 30 million effective members to us, search, Semir and so on?

One phenomenon is intriguing.

After the failure of ITAT, while everyone sneered at its radical expansion, in fact, the United States and costumes also launched a brand diversification and mode heavy strategy after launching the launch of the second brand ME&CITY expansion plan, and the purchase of commercial real estate.

This directly led to the high cost and poor performance of the company from 2009 to 2010. Until 2010, Zhou Chengjian, the chairman of the company, admitted that "overestimated the speed of brand development" and said that "we can't just ignore tomorrow", which slowed down the pace of expansion.

There are many other cases of great value.

For example, in the clothing B2C industry, the pioneer PPG falls, followers fans fire, while little Mcglaughlin is the first to be listed.

Aside from the analysis of business school, who can really talk clearly about why PPG fell in a flash, what improvements have been made by Van Carlson, and where Mcglaughlin's leadership and safety are reflected.

If every industry change and mode innovation to capital market, it is only through incremental improvement of stock structure, that is no gospel for investors, which means that the best investment varieties are always listed.

Unfortunately, at present, there is not a single enterprise in the A share textile and garment sector that has been upgrading through several modes, leading the market at all times, but can only see new people laugh instead of old people crying because most of them are pformed into other industries, such as YOUNGOR and Shanshan.

From this point of view, no one can be regarded as a "great enterprise" in the A textile and garment sector, and it is possible for anyone to be caught naked in the next low tide.