China'S Inflation Cycle Is Beyond Imagination.
"At present, China is experiencing
Inflation week
The time span of the period will be beyond imagination, but monetary policy may relax in the third and fourth quarters of this year for fear of possible downturns.
Yesterday, in the "financial times rich financial research center 1st Anniversary forum", Yin Xingmin, deputy director of China Economic Research Center, Fudan University, said.
Yin Xingmin said that 2011 is a year when China's economy is changing.
Macro policy
Environment or entirely different, "the biggest macroeconomic variable affecting the current Chinese economy is the third inflation that China is experiencing in the past 10 years.
The inflation cycle is not one-off, and its time span may extend to 2012 or even 2013.
He also said that the overall rise in prices was caused by excessive currency, while the effect of administrative control was zero. The only way was to control the money supply and raise interest rates, so that money could be reintroduced into the banking system.
In theory, in accordance with the Taylor rules, the central bank should raise interest rates to around 5% this year.
interest rate
Promotion is not enough.
Then, will China's economy stagflate?
Yin Xingmin thinks, very likely.
He expects monetary policy to ease in the third quarter or the fourth quarter in response to the potential "stagflation" scenario.
Because if we adopt a tight monetary policy throughout the year, it may lead to a rapid economic downturn and a "hard landing" of the economy, which is unacceptable.
The timely pition of monetary policy from tight to loose also means the change of investment opportunities.
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