Cotton Is Expected To Reach Bottom In The Fourth Quarter.

Since then, cotton prices have been falling at home and abroad. US cotton main contract fell below 1 US / pound psychological barrier, sustaining small box oscillation. Domestic cotton is still down the channel, close to 19800 yuan / ton storage price, 21000 - 22000 interval fierce competition. Near August, the author believes that the new cotton will soon continue, and the cotton price will continue to bear pressure in the later stage, and the probability of reaching the bottom is greater in the fourth quarter.

　　 First, the new year cotton Negative effects of high yield will gradually decrease.

Last year, the international cotton prices went up sharply, which directly led to the huge expansion of cotton in the new year. Although the output of cotton in the United States has been reduced due to weather conditions in Texas, it still does not affect the high yield of cotton in the new year. China's cotton planting area has also increased significantly. The new cotton market in the fourth quarter will still have an impact on cotton prices in the early stage of its IPO. But with the gradual digestion of high-yield news, the bad profits will be weakened. And if there is a big change in weather in the main production areas, it will effectively boost cotton prices.

　　 Two, seasonal consumption peak season is expected to repeat itself.

US Department of agriculture's latest export weekly shows us current year. Upland cotton Net signing sales again negative, for more than ten weeks, the default amount is higher than the new contract volume. At the same time, due to the expected decline in domestic market consumption, India announced an increase of 170 thousand tons of cotton export quotas, cotton supply was abundant, domestic cotton imports fell for 3 consecutive months, and demand became the biggest "soft rib" of cotton prices.

As cotton prices gradually decline, and early inventory gradually digested, the end of the year or there is a demand for replenishment. Historical data show that the fourth quarter of the year is the peak season for cotton demand. In December, cotton monthly import volume usually increased by more than 100%, which will effectively support cotton prices. Along with the improvement of demand, cotton prices have been warmer in the fourth quarter.

　 Three, spinning enterprises or facing the adjustment of industrial structure

In early 2011, textile enterprises generally had raw materials. High inventory The situation of cotton yarn sales is not smooth, and the price of raw materials has continued to decline. Some small and medium-sized textile enterprises have broken the capital chain and are hard to maintain. After the textile industry is faced with the adjustment of industrial structure and some small and medium-sized enterprises withdraw from the market, large and medium-sized textile enterprises will further expand their market share. With the sharp fall in cotton prices, the gradual deepening of the macroeconomic situation and the gradual digestion of the initial inventory of textile enterprises, the orders for large and medium-sized textile enterprises will gradually increase at the end of the year, supporting the cotton price at the end of the year.

　　 Four, domestic regulatory policies gradually ease.

With the price of Cotton falling sharply, the regulation and control policy has eased up to nearly 19800 yuan / ton. Cotton prices will be more guided by the market, 19800 yuan / ton storage price or psychological price of the market. Whether the cotton price can maintain the "2" prefix era remains to be seen.

　 Five, cotton or touches the bottom in the fourth quarter.

At present, the Zheng cotton 1201 contract maintains 21000 - 22000 interval oscillation, the difference is bigger, the position increases obviously. The pressure above the gap is obvious, due to the close of the purchase and storage price, fierce competition. In the short term, we should focus on intraday operation, not overnight, but we can wait for the short selling opportunity later.

The whole industry chain of cotton began in April, although the price was reduced, the effect was still not optimistic. In the process of falling cotton prices, textile enterprises will not receive enough goods to enter the field. And the export situation of textiles is not optimistic. It is expected that cotton prices will remain weak in the three quarter.

New cotton will be released from 9 to November. The cotton harvest news will be gradually digested, and if the late weather changes greatly, it will effectively support cotton prices. Meanwhile, at the end of the year, textile orders will generally increase in the peak season of cotton consumption, which will form a certain support for cotton prices. At the same time, domestic regulatory policies have slowed down, and the probability of cotton prices hitting the bottom in the fourth quarter is greater. In the later stage, we still need to pay attention to factors such as macroeconomic regulation and control policy, price of substitute products, whether there are variables in the later stage of production and whether the consumption demand can be effectively improved.