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Short Term Supply And Demand Imbalance At The Bottom Of The State Reserve Purchase

2011/8/18 15:03:00 45

Purchase And Supply Imbalance Of Cotton Price

"19800 yuan / ton" on the domestic cotton futures market K-line chart is only a modest price, because compared to the three years of the market from 11000 yuan to 34000 yuan huge fluctuations, it has no technical significance.

But with the closing date, the price has now become the focus of attention.

Yesterday,

Central reserve

Cotton has published the list of the first batch of reserve warehouses for cotton storage and storage in 2011, involving 21 warehousing enterprises such as China cotton Langfang storage and pportation company, and the public notice period ended in August 19th.

It is widely expected that the purchase and storage of cotton will start in September 1st.

At the beginning of the year, the 2011 cotton temporary purchase and storage plan was set at 19800 yuan / ton, and there was no limit on the amount of storage.

The combination of "pricing" and "unlimited acquisition" is understood by the market as the bottom of the domestic cotton price.

In the early stage, Zhengzhou cotton gradually stabilized, and the CF1201 contract closed at 20780 yuan / ton yesterday. The closing price has been on the 10 day moving average for the first time in nearly a month, and the lowest price of CF1201 has been 6 consecutive trading daily on 20500 yuan / ton.

Guotai Junan Futures Zhou Xiaoqiu said the new year

Cotton collection and storage

The time is from September 1st to March 31st next year, with the opening price of 19800 yuan / ton as the base price, during the period, the bottom of the market is clear.

After next March, although the market uncertainty is increasing, as long as the export situation is improving gradually, prices will still rise.

Compared with the optimistic view of futures analysts, spot investors have different judgments about this seemingly clear policy bottom.

Dong Shuzhi, manager of the cotton production department of Fangzheng, said that 19800 yuan / ton is not the real "bottom", and that the short-term market will stop falling, probably due to the indirect promotion of PTA and chemical fiber.

He said that only

Purchase and storage price

Higher than spot or futures margin prices, the market will have power to reserve.

And by pushing back the storage price, taking into account the costs of traders, manufacturers, and processing fees, the purchase price of new cotton in the market is definitely less than 19800 yuan / ton of national storage price, but now the futures price is 1000 yuan / ton higher, and in this case, the market would prefer to register in the futures market.

"In addition, we can take the purchase and storage situation in 2008 as a reference. At that time, under the background of the economic crisis, there was a serious oversupply of the market, and the market price was stabilized by 1000-2000 yuan lower than the storage price, and the cotton price in 2008 was also far lower than the current cost factor."

Shanghai JD garment purchasing manager Zheng Yu also believes that cotton prices may also further explore bottom.

According to his analysis, after the new cotton supply is listed in September, the current inventory will face greater sales pressure.

In terms of demand, cotton prices rose sharply last year, forcing many orders to turn into chemical fiber raw materials. This year, garment enterprises have reduced the purchase of cotton fabrics.

The domestic cotton market supply and demand imbalance pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term.

According to the latest statistics of 123 warehousing members of China Cotton Association, as of the end of July 2011, the total turnover of commodity cotton turnover was 693 thousand tons (530 thousand tons in the mainland and 163 thousand tons in Xinjiang), an increase of 297 thousand tons compared with the same period last year.