Cotton Growth And Yield Outlook This Year

September 15th, in China

Cotton growth and yield forecast

1, cotton planting area showed a recovery growth.

Monitoring results, the national sown area of 81 million 240 thousand mu, compared with the caliber increase of 7.1% to 5 million 350 thousand mu.

The sowing area of the three major river basins has increased, of which the Yangtze River Basin has increased by 11.7%, and the inland area of the Northwest has increased by 8.1%, and the the Yellow River basin has increased by only 3%.

By the end of September, the area of cotton harvest in the whole country was small, and almost all the help fields were harvested.

2, the total production increment has decreased.

First, the opening was good, and the Yangtze River was poor because of drought.

Two is the constant improvement of the Miao.

Due to the "dry and hot" characteristics of the preceding and middle period, although the drought dominated disasters are more important, the growth is better.

According to the monitoring, the average cotton growth index (CCGI) in China was 121 in 5-8 months, indicating that the growth rate was better than 20% over the same period last year, which is better than that in the whole year. 8%.

Three, since September, the temperature of the mainland has decreased, the rainy days are more, the illumination is less, the autumn peach is less, the rotten bells are higher than expected, and the unit production increment has decreased.

It is estimated that the total output will be 7 million tons, and its increment will be reduced by 100 thousand tons over the middle of August.

3, the three major basins are not the same.

The Yangtze River Basin: the trend of increasing production is weakened, and the latter weather also has an impact on output.

The basin is growing better than nearly 20% in the same period last year.

5-6 months of drought and waterlogging in 5-6 months, 7-8 months of drought and waterlogging both. After the late August, the low temperature and rain lasted for more than 20 days, the upper shedding more, fewer bell, but the lower ringing less, less area of premature senility, in early September mainly in cloudy days, but the rainfall is less.

The Yellow River basin: the yield per unit area increased slightly.

Growth is better than last year's more than 10%.

In the first half of the 20th century, the weather was stable, growing steadily, and the momentum of increasing production was strong.

However, since September, low temperature and rainy days have increased the yield per unit area.

Northwest inland: harvest and high yield.

Growth is better than last year's more than 30%.

The weather is stable and robust in the first half.

According to the survey in late August, 100 thousand acres of land in Xinjiang have been springing up, and the yield per unit area may be refreshed again.

Although in late August, it experienced a brief low temperature and rainy weather, but it soon improved. Due to the normal temperature in the early and early September, its output was mostly finalized and the harvest was basically decided.

Two, implement the policy of temporary collection and storage, and fulfill the promise of open acquisition.

(1) the temporary storage and storage price increases greatly.

This year, the purchasing and storage price increased by 7200 yuan / ton compared with 12600 yuan / ton in 2008, an increase of 57.1%, a deduction of 1000 yuan / ton processing and pportation fees, and a 49.2% increase in the price range. This shows that the state attaches great importance to cotton, strives to ensure that the income of cotton farmers does not decrease, and promotes the stability of cotton production. It also takes into account the factors of cost rise. Therefore, it is necessary to fully affirm the policy of temporary purchase and storage.

According to the provisional purchase price of 18800 yuan / ton, with 38% linen percentage and 3 yuan / kg of cottonseed, the 328 grade cotton seed sold at a price of 8.96 yuan / kg is a bottom purchase price.

(two) start the temporary acquisition in a timely manner and strengthen supervision.

1, start the temporary purchase and storage in a timely manner.

Storage and purchase has been launched in September 8th.

2, publicity, supervision and implementation of good policies.

3, expand the temporary storage capacity.

Three. Calculation of cost, output value and income.

According to the price of 18800 yuan / ton, the price of seed cotton is 8.8 yuan / kg, which is 19.6% less than the price of 10.94 yuan per kilogram last year. The output value of the main product is reduced by one percentage point. Due to the sharp rise in cost, the three largest production area is expected to reduce two to 40%, and its reduction is also related to the unit size and grade.

(1) material and labour costs continue to rise.

The rising cost of cotton planting has long been unacceptable, and labor costs have not been anticipated.

It is estimated that the annual cost will increase by at least 202.1 yuan per mu, or up by 14%, pushing up the cost of lint cotton by 2377.6 yuan / ton, that is, increasing 12.6% on the basis of 18800 yuan / ton. Only the reasonable price of new cotton will be between 2.1 yuan and 22 thousand yuan per ton, and this price can keep cotton planting.

(two) Taking Northern Xinjiang as an example, it calculates that the output value of the main products is slightly reduced, and the revenue is reduced by more than 20%.

By early September, the output of North Xinjiang was basically finalized.

According to the inspection and household monitoring in late August, according to 18800 yuan / ton, the purchase price of new cotton decreased by 17.7% from 1.56 yuan to 8.8 yuan / kg, and seed cotton production increased 16.7% to 44.3 kg to 309.3 kg / mu, and the output value decreased 0.9% from 24 yuan to 2721.4 yuan / mu, and the cost rose by 17.4% yuan to 2721.4 yuan / mu.

Four, new cotton price outlook

Comprehensive analysis shows that temporary storage, cost rise and inflation have the greatest impact on the price of new cotton.

First, the temporary purchase and storage price will play a supporting role in the market, and the price of new cotton will go steadily.

Two, driven by rising costs and inflation, prices are likely to fluctuate upward and upward. Perhaps the price of new cotton will return to a reasonable range.

In addition, if commercial banks enter capital acquisition, the market price will also rise.

Five, optimistic about the national gate

In view of this year's cotton harvest and consumption weakness, it is suggested that the quota outside the quota should not be added; even if the quota is added, the tariff rate outside the quota can not be reduced to 5%.