Wide Probability Of Oscillation In Cotton

Since the end of the rally in early September, Zheng cotton futures have come back to a new low. At present, the price of Zheng cotton has been near to the storage price, and the game between supply and demand pressure and purchasing and storage support has become increasingly fierce.

The author believes that under the background of sustained economic weakness in Europe and America, there is a lot of pressure on the top of Zheng cotton and strong support underneath. It is very difficult to break the stalemate in the short term, and the probability of wide oscillation is between 19000 and 21000 yuan.

European and American economies are flagging.

In October 23rd, the attention of the EU leaders' meeting did not take place. European debt crisis To propose effective solutions, which means that EU countries need more time to negotiate solutions, and European debt problems remain variable. At present, the European Union countries are facing the severe challenges of slow economic growth, rising unemployment rate, and the increasing risk of banking and sovereign debt crisis, which may drag down the world economy and trigger the two dip of the global economy.

At the same time, the distorting operation in the early part of the United States had little effect, and in the face of the higher unemployment rate, we had to take a new round of economic stimulus plan. European and American economies are deep in the mud, and Zheng cotton futures are facing upward upward pressure.

　　 Domestic seed cotton prices have declined.

Recently, domestic cotton picking is coming to an end. New cotton The purchase volume slowly increased, and the phenomenon of cotton farmers reluctant to sell was reduced. In October 24th, the reference price of cotton grade 328 (38% lint and 10% moisture) in China was 4.22 yuan / Jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan compared with 4.32 yuan / Jin a week ago. On the one hand, the price reduction of seed cotton has made cotton growers gradually accept the fact that cotton prices have dropped. The sale price has increased and cotton purchase volume has slowly expanded. On the other hand, it has narrowed the price difference between domestic and international cotton and improved the enthusiasm of cotton enterprises in cotton production. With the increase of cotton market, the price of seed cotton will decrease in the later stage. At the same time, the amount of domestic storage will be rapidly enlarged, and too much cotton will be digested in the market, thus stabilizing the market.

　　 The production of spinning enterprises is not optimistic.

9 since the middle of last month, yarn The market is once again in a slump, and the finished product inventory of textile enterprises is increasing slowly. The production situation of textile enterprises is not optimistic. As cotton spot prices fell, yarn prices also fell slightly, the amount of procurement of cotton yarn in the grey fabric factory was significantly reduced, and the yarn was unsalable. At present, the mainstream trading price of C32S is 27000 - 27500 yuan / ton, down nearly 1000 yuan compared with last week. The order situation of the cotton mill has not improved. In previous years, October was a time when orders were more frequent in winter. Most of the cotton mills had very few orders this year, and some enterprises had not even received winter orders. It is understood that in 2011, the 110th Canton Fair was much cooler than before. The number of visitors on the first day was 21% less than that of last year. The number of merchants in Europe and America has been greatly reduced, and the demand for foreign trade is not optimistic.

　 State purchasing and storage policy obviously supports the market

With the slow enlargement of the number of storage and storage, the function of "reservoir" has become increasingly apparent. Due to the fact that the number of actual purchases and storage in the country has not yet been determined, the adjustment of the market has yet to be confirmed. At present, the 1205 main contract of Zheng cotton futures has fallen to the close of the reserve price. The rate of decline has slowed down obviously, and the support for the market is obvious. In addition, because of rising prices, cotton production costs remain high, which has a certain supporting role in cotton prices.

According to the Dezhou Cotton Association survey, fertilizer prices in 2011 increased by 20% over the same period last year, and the cost of agricultural films and pesticides rose. In 2011, the direct cost of cotton planting was about 456 yuan per mu, an increase of 61 yuan over 2010. {page_break}

To sum up, with the massive listing of seed cotton, seed cotton prices will continue to decline, and the continued downturn in European and American economies has kept textile enterprises' demand low. Textile enterprises will still have a long time to run difficulties. Zheng cotton faces greater upward pressure, while state purchasing and storage policies and high production costs have strong support for cotton prices. Zheng cotton has a greater probability of oscillation in the range of 19000 to 21000 yuan in the short term.