Cotton Spinning Industry: The Most Difficult Period Is Yet To Come.

In November 22nd, the national cotton price B index (grade 328 cotton spot) was closed at 19714 yuan / ton, compared with the previous one. Trading day Down 21 yuan / ton. It is widely expected that the price of cotton will continue to descend under the double base of the purchasing and storage mechanism and the cost price. terminal Weak demand means that the next 3-6 months will be the most difficult period for the cotton textile industry.

However, the industry also pointed out that if the end of the year manufacturers are forced to increase their promotional efforts under the pressure of inventory, domestic textile retail is expected to return to normal in a short time.

　　 Cotton price There is little room for further decline.

At this time last year, cotton prices were still heading for the 30 thousand yuan / ton track. Such a hot situation is in sharp contrast to the current market of raw materials for cotton spinning.

According to the monthly report of China cotton price index, although cotton seed sale is at its peak in October, the new cotton market has increased significantly, but cotton prices are in a downward trend. At the end of 10, the national cotton 328 index closed at 19409 yuan / ton, down 563 yuan from the end of 9, down 2.8%, and the monthly average price was 19716 yuan / ton, down by 16 yuan. Decline It is 0.1%.

Wang Qian said that the current spot price of cotton has been lower than the state's provisional purchase and storage price, and the market turnover is still light. Therefore, the storage and transportation has gradually become the main channel for business operation. Against this background, he expects cotton prices to stabilize at a low level.

According to information compiled by Zhuo Chuang, the cost of three grade fur and wool weight in Xinjiang's southern Xinjiang is about 20000-20300 yuan / ton this year, and the cost of lint four in Shandong is 17500-18400 yuan / ton. As far as cost factors are concerned, Wang Qian also believes that there is little room for further decline in cotton prices. {page_break}

　 　 Internal and external needs Both are not strong.

Although cotton prices fell little space, but Wang pointed out: "the recent cotton textile industry downstream data is not optimistic, the most difficult period of the industry has not yet arrived."

The recently concluded 110th Canton exchange (China Import and Export Fair) fully reflected the sluggish external demand: statistics show that in 2011, the Canton Fair turnover increased by 8.3%, an increase of 21.7% percentage points lower than that of last year by 13.4 percentage points, and the actual turnover of European and American purchasers decreased by 19% and 24% respectively. Among them, less than 6 months accounted for 88%. All these data indicate that the slowdown in the US and Europe will seriously drag China's export situation.

Even the textile and garment enterprises exhibiting even believe that the current situation is even worse than the financial crisis in 2008.

Consumer demand in the domestic market is also not optimistic. According to the statistics of the China Federation of Commerce and the China National Business Information Center, the volume of retail sales of clothing products and volume growth slowed down in October. Retail sales of 100 large retail enterprises increased by 16.73% compared to the same period last year, the growth rate was 15.12 and 11.86 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, while retail sales decreased by 5.82% compared to the same period last year, and the growth rate was down 8.02 and 18.06 percentage points respectively.

"The data of Canton Fair will be forerunner, and the impact of the slowdown in the volume of orders will appear in the next 3-6 months." in Wang's view, it will be the most difficult period for the whole industry.

However, it is worth noting that Everbright Securities recently issued a report that sales decline in October has a certain relationship with the "warm winter" and the weak promotion of shopping malls. With the approaching of the Spring Festival and other businesses, the discount activities and efforts will improve significantly in the first quarter of December and the first quarter of next year, when domestic apparel retail sales growth is expected to return to normal.