PTA Will Continue The Original Oscillation Pattern In The Short Term.
As the replenishment market before the May Day holiday in the downstream market has basically ended, at the same time, the PTA4 month spot contract settlement price has been promulgated and the support strength has weakened. The PTA spot price has weakened again after a brief rebound last week, and the short-term oscillation pattern will remain.
PX passively follows or falls
Beginning in March, with the shrinking demand for orders in the lower reaches of PTA, the price of upstream products could not continue to shift downward, and the contradictions intensified.
Asia PX
spot price
Follow PTA's price to slow down.
As Asia and the global PX supply and demand situation has not been reversed, and with the PTA production capacity, PX supply will continue to maintain tight, PX strong will continue.
When PTA prices fell rapidly, PX pairs.
PTA price
The cost support is strong, but the support is weak when the PTA price rebounded.
In April, Asian PX prices fell slightly, and the Asian PX contract settlement price is expected to decline in May.
From the author's understanding of the situation, the Asian PX settlement price in May is likely to be around 1550 US dollars / ton, and the production cost of PTA is estimated at around 8890 yuan / ton.
At present, the spot price of PTA has dropped, and PX's support for PTA will be strengthened again.
Production capacity postponed, PTA slowed down
2012 is the peak of domestic PTA production capacity, and capacity pressure is the key factor for PTA price decline.
However, according to my understanding, it is estimated that the 2 million 700 thousand tonnes of PTA capacity in the two quarter will be extended until June.
Due to the delay in PTA production, the supply of PTA has decreased.
With the slow recovery of downstream demand and cost support, the PTA decline will slow down.
In addition, it is worth noting that, despite the approaching delivery month, there are still more than 40 thousand hands in the 1205 contracts.
Once entering the delivery month, if we want to ensure that the existing positions are fully delivered, we need PTA stock of about 100000 tons, while the current stock market is only 45 thousand tons, and there is a gap of nearly 60 thousand tons between them.
The author believes that although the 1205 contracts have a relatively high position, the probability of delivery risk is not large from the current fundamental analysis, but it reflects the anti market mentality of the goods market.
Therefore, we do not rule out that the 1205 contract market will still maintain a relatively high price, thus supporting the price of the 1209 contract.
Downstream replenishment and supporting raw material prices
After entering March, the downstream polyester links entered the slow inventory process.
Because
Polyester filament
The price has dropped to the level of the end of last year as a whole, and the willingness to buy goods on the lower reaches has been strengthened, which provides a strong support for the upstream raw material prices to a certain extent.
In short, the short-term PTA oscillation pattern will continue.
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