Cotton Price: Production Is Expected To Decline And Spot Trading Is Better.

As early rainy weather has a greater impact on some cotton regions, cotton prices will be boosted by the expected reduction in domestic cotton output in 2012.

Entering the year September, the new year's acquisition and storage will start soon, and the policy of throwing and storing the quota will also be implemented at the same time. Where will Zheng cotton go?

The policy effect needs to be observed.

Recently, a series of cotton policy combinations have been put into effect in the country, which has a positive effect on cotton prices.

At the end of August, the NDRC issued 400 thousand tons.

To ease the demand for foreign cotton in textile enterprises.

At the beginning of September, the NDRC also launched the work of putting cotton reserves into operation. It is expected to put 1 million tons of cotton into the market, including 300 thousand tons of cotton in 2008, and 700 thousand tons of cotton in 2011. The starting price is 16000 yuan / ton and 18500 yuan / ton respectively.

At the same time, the acquisition and storage of the new year is about to start. The unlimited purchase and storage policy will benefit more cotton prices, and the issuance of quota and reserve policy will be bad for cotton prices.

Weighing the influence of the two policies, the purchasing and storage support is stronger, but the strength is obviously weaker than last year.

Later, as the number of throwing and storing increases, the pressure on the spot will gradually increase.

Production expectations are down

Cotton has gradually entered the picking period, Xinjiang, Henan and Hebei and other new cotton have been bought, the purchase price of about 4 yuan / Jin.

The early rainy weather had different effects on most cotton regions, and Xinjiang and Yangtze river basins were less affected. The the Yellow River River Basin was the most affected.

According to the data released by the Xinjiang development and Reform Commission, Xinjiang, 2012

It is expected to reach 3 million 200 thousand tons, an increase of 3.59% over last year, accounting for about half of the country's total output.

Last week, we conducted a field survey of Shandong, Liaocheng, Dezhou, Binzhou and Dongying. The rainy weather has a great impact on the area. The yield of cotton per mu has been greatly reduced. At present, the number of peach bearing per plant is 8 - 15, which is more than half of that of 25 - 30 in the normal year.

Most of the cotton fields in the area have been flooded. Some of the low-lying cotton fields have been basically extinct. The cotton plants lodging in the cotton fields with slightly higher topography is widespread, and the yield of seed cotton will be reduced to 200 - 250 Jin, which is 30% - 50% lower than that in the normal year.

Spot trading has improved.

Textile enterprises have received orders in recent years.

Obviously, the turnover has improved.

In September, it has entered the traditional peak season of textile industry. The order of winter clothing has begun to increase. Despite the fact that small orders and short lists are the main ones, the demand for cotton in the market has shown signs of improvement.

Recently, the price of the 328 grade Xinjiang cotton factory in Jining, Shandong, was 18600 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as last week. At present, the textile enterprises still adopt the strategy of "follow suit", and purchase tends to be rational, and spot prices remain stable.

Cotton prices are basically stable, the overall volume has been enlarged, 32S and J40S yarn to take a larger volume.

If the late spot market can continue to improve, it will have a stimulating effect on cotton prices.

Technically, Zheng cotton 1301 contract center of gravity has been shifting upward, has successfully stabilized 19500 yuan / ton platform, the average system is arranged in a long way, the price is closing to the previous high of 19765 yuan / ton, if the latter in the warehouse capacity can effectively break through this price, the cotton price rise can be opened.

To sum up, under the influence of the policy combination of purchasing and storing, throwing and storing, the cotton futures market will lead to a steady rise in the price of the futures market, and the complicated policy factors make it difficult for Zheng cotton to have a unilateral market or to run along the spiral up track.