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The Trade Surplus Expanded In November, And Export Growth Rate Was Higher In One Month.

2013/12/9 21:42:00 21

In November Trade Surplus Foreign Trade Exchange Rate Exports Renminbi

Customs General Administration released data on 8 days. In November, the total value of China's imports and exports was US $370 billion 610 million, with a deduction of < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > /a > factor increased by 9.3% over the same period. The monthly export value exceeded 200 billion US dollars for the first time, reached 202 billion 210 million US dollars, increased by 12.7%, a new record high, and the import of $168 billion 400 million was 5.3%. In November, the trade surplus was $33 billion 810 million, an expansion of 73.4%. 
 the first 11 months of this year, the total value of China's imports and exports was US $3 trillion and 770 billion, an increase of 7.7% over the same period last year. Of which, exports of US $2 trillion, an increase of 8.3%, and imports of US $1 trillion and 770 billion, an increase of 7.1%. The trade surplus in the first 11 months was 234 billion 150 million US dollars, an increase of 18.3%. 
 Zhu Haibin, chief economist of J.P. Morgan, released a research report today. China's November a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_f.asp" > exports < /a > grew by 12.7% over the same period (Morgan Chase: 13.2%; market forecast: 7%), while in October it grew 5.6% compared to the same period last year. It is worth mentioning that the growth in November was partly driven by the cardinal effect: export growth in November dropped 2.8% compared to the same period last year, and 11.5% in October. After the quarter adjustment, export growth in November was flat than that in the quarter, while in October it increased by 6% over the seasonally adjusted quarter. From the link data, as of the 3 months of November, the /3 monthly rose 22.7%, while the 3 quarter of October rose by 19.8% in November. After adding the first eleven months, China's exports increased by 8.3% over the same period in 1-11. 
At the same time, in November, imports increased by 5.3% over the same period (J.P. Morgan: 9.5%; market forecast: 7%), while in October, it increased by 7.6% over the same period in October. This means that imports in November fell by 2.2% over the quarter, but in October it was 2.1% higher than the seasonally adjusted quarter. In November, the trade surplus widened to $33 billion 800 million (JP Morgan: US $28 billion; market forecast: US $21 billion 200 million), while in October it was US $31 billion 100 million (/p).
 Zhu Haibin believes that in recent months, the growth rate of China's exports continues to grow at a relatively high rate, indicating that China's export industry is benefiting from the global economic rebound. At the same time, the slowdown in the import speed of some industrial metals in November may reflect the change in the investment cycle we observed recently, that is, investment growth has gradually shifted from the fixed assets investment in infrastructure and real estate market (generally commodity intensive industries) to investment in manufacturing industry. 
The global team of J.P. Morgan expects that in the next few quarters, the global economy will grow at a steady and steady pace with the trend growth rate, especially in the developed economies, and there is a potential upward risk, which should be conducive to China's exports. At the same time, since the beginning of this year, < a href= "http://fz.sjfzxm.com/" > /a > effective appreciation of the real effective exchange rate may continue to adversely affect the export industry in the short term. 
 "business owners generally reflect a steady increase in new orders. In November, China's import and export entered the golden week, but the short-term growth rate can not obscure the weakness of export fundamentals." Xiao Feng, deputy general manager of the foreign trade research center of a small and medium-sized enterprise, said that the demand for international market is still fluctuating and has not been completely stabilized. According to the monitoring of 500 enterprises by one Datong, 21.75% of enterprises have declined in enquiry volume; since 2013, nearly 80% of the enterprises' orders have not increased.