Analysis Of The "Two Sessions Market Rule" Peculiar To A Shares

In 2014, the national "two sessions" will be unveiled in March 3rd. As the two sessions often release the annual "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_q.asp "policy" /a "trend, it will also affect the fundamentals and financial aspects of the stock market, which will play a significant role in guiding the market. Meanwhile, the theme of the two sessions and the special panel effect will also have a significant impact on the trend of the index." P "

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"P", although the ups and downs of the A share market have always been difficult to catch, but it is a big probability event to get out of a wave stage before and after the "two meetings" every year. The main reason is that red February was the result of the golden period of the main meal market.

Yu believes that the main opportunities for the two sessions will take place before the opening of the "two sessions", and then consolidate and maintain stability. Unless the "two sessions" expect better policies, once the policy becomes clearer and other factors, the adjustment factors that will be accumulated in the market will be released.

Moreover, the market has become the first time cycle this week, that is, the table 2-1 of P37 in the book "calendar buying stock law". A shares take the 10 trading days before and after the Spring Festival as the node. The historical average yield is 4.7%. As of Thursday, it is just the 10 trading day after the holiday, and the Shanghai stock index has achieved 5.8% rise, which is above the average level, which can also ensure that the 2 month line will catch up.

Therefore, the two sessions become the second time effect, which deserves the attention of investors.

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< p > the "two sessions" need to be held in a stable and harmonious atmosphere. The A share market usually does not encounter obvious bad news impact. From the policy perspective, investors have a good psychological expectation for the "two sessions" policy. The two sessions will release a lot of policy trends, so as to make a new orientation for the future direction of China's economy. Therefore, the A share market can not only get new speculation themes, but also stimulate positive feelings on investors' emotions. In addition, many years of operational inertia and experience replication psychology have made investors' trading mentality before and after the "two sessions" more optimistic, thus further increasing the strength of many parties.

Yu name thinks that investors should also notice that < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > capital > /a > market and market elements. From the aspect of capital, usually the intensity of credit supply in the first quarter is relatively large, and the market funds are relatively loose, so the supply of funds in the A share market tends to be balanced at this stage.

In addition, from a time perspective, the long time sluggish A share market still has ample valuation repair space, while management needs to escort IPO restart, giving A shares plenty of room for imagination.

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< p > according to the data statistics in the book "calendar buying stock law", the time effect in the 1 months before and after the two sessions, in the 14 years of ~2013 in 2000, except for 2001 and 2013, the Shanghai composite index was in an overall rising state in the 1 months before the "two sessions" held in that year, and the probability of rise was as high as 85.71%.

Among them, in the 1 months before 2000, 2007, 2010 and 2012, the cumulative increase of Shanghai composite index exceeded 5%.

It has been introduced that the market will have a period of adjustment during the two sessions and the week after the end. But after that, the market will be active again, and the cycle will be expanded to the phenomenon that the A shares are going up or down in the month after the end of the "two sessions". In 2000 ~2013, the 9 monthly increase was positive.

Continuing research can be found that "two sessions" theme stocks in the "two sessions" before and after the performance of the more amazing, for example, in 2011 the new three boards, triple play plate in the same period 2~3 month overall rose 20.01%, 11.71%, and in 2013, the environmental protection, security plate in 2~3 months respectively recorded 9.67%, 9.59% interval increase.

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< p > specific to 2014, the two sessions clearly pointed out the key direction of domestic economic reform in the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee last year. This year's "two sessions" will be the window to confirm and implement the relevant specific reform measures. It is expected that the number and intensity of the economic guiding policies and policies promulgated during this year's "two sessions" will probably be higher than in previous years, and the boost to the market can also be expected.

Mainly focused on four aspects: the first is the energy saving and environmental protection plate. Recently, a number of environmental protection stocks have been suspended to achieve reorganization. Obviously, there is capital to be bigger and stronger. Then, stocks for air pollution control, solid pollution treatment and new energy use are concerned.

The second is related to new agriculture related stocks. This year's first document is too tight. Then, whether the policy can be refined during the two sessions will become the key to the activation of related agricultural stocks. If not, don't buy such shares easily.

The third is oil and gas reform. Yu believes that the introduction of Sinopec's private capital behavior has intensified the reform of oil and gas. Especially the new round of bidding for shale gas will also appear in the latter part of the first quarter. This is a game worthy of investors. The fourth is a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/ news/index_cj.asp" > new shares < /a > market, which has been analyzed yesterday, which will make the elements run through the first half and even the whole year.

Investors can refer to it.

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