China Manufacturing PMI Index Fell Below 50 Market Waiting For Direct Subsidy Rules

In 2014, the US started the two rounds of QE reduction, and the US macroeconomic data continued to be weak. The market began to worry about the progress of the US recovery in the future, which was bad for the commodity market as a whole. P

China is also not optimistic. After the HSBC China manufacturing PMI index fell below the 50 withered line in January, the latest data fell short of expectations, hitting a 7 month low. The commodity futures market was affected by this effect, and it was also a serious pressure on the market sentiment of < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/ index_c.asp" > cotton > /a > (19985, 25, 0.13%).

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< p > < strong > cotton planting area increased, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > American cotton < /a > pressure greater than /strong > /p >

< p > recently, the reduction of soybean area (4514, 7, 0.16%) and the high cotton price have stimulated the increase of cotton planting area. The NCC cotton planting intention report released by P shows that the US cotton planting area is expected to reach 11 million 261 thousand acres, an increase of 8.2%.

At the same time, USDA also recently predicted that the 2014/2015 cotton planting area in the United States was 11 million 500 thousand acres, an increase of 10.5% over the same period last year.

Overall, under the background of increased supply, next year, the United States cotton may suffer a greater downward pressure.

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< p > < strong > market wait for straight subsidy rule < /strong > < /p >

< p > although the recent reserve regulation does not withdraw from the market, it has aroused speculation among all parties in the market that cotton prices will continue to rise. However, we believe that there is little possibility of re starting the purchase and storage in the mainland in the new year. More importantly, "reserve control" refers to the regulation and control of future dumping and storage as well as the flexible operation of relevant policies, rather than the start of the temporary purchasing and storage policy. There should be no hope for the future policy.

At the same time, the market is waiting for the implementation of the direct subsidy rules.

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< p > the current market generally believes that the price of < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > subsidy < /a > will probably be stable at 19000 yuan / ton, which has a certain distance from the bottom of the price of the previous 20400 yuan / ton of unlimited storage. This has also led to a decrease in the cotton planting area in the new year to a certain extent. The survey shows that in 2014, the national intention planting area was 63 million 130 thousand mu, which was 9% lower than that in 2013. However, for the existing giant Ling deposit, the impact of the reduction in production is limited, which has little effect on the domestic cotton price in the future.

Cotton seeds will begin to be released in early April. The subsidy rules will be introduced at the end of March at the latest. Therefore, after the first quarter, with the determination of direct subsidy rules, cotton prices will be downloaded.

The current far month contract performance is relatively weak, for the main contract discount is bigger, and the next year's contract which lacks consumption and policy support will enter the long-term weakness.

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