Long Term Settlement Must Be Returned To Value Preservation Standard.

Since February, the RMB has depreciated sharply, and the export enterprises that have long been troubled by revaluation have ushered in the spring. However, facing the rising price of foreign exchange settlement, many export enterprises have fallen into a corner, which is particularly evident in the long-term settlement of foreign exchange. P

Take the 1 year forward settlement as an example, in the early February, a large number of enterprises signed a US dollar forward settlement contract at around 6.10, but at present, about 6.30 of the bank quotations, the wait-and-see atmosphere is more intense.

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On the surface, this seems to be a psychological attack on "catching up and killing". After all, after the expectation of unilateral appreciation is broken, the RMB does not rule out the possibility of continuing to weaken P.

But I think the deeper reason may be that the enterprises have not yet gone out of the financial management misunderstandings formed under the unilateral appreciation environment.

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< p > is a negative attitude towards margin.

When a long-term settlement agreement is signed between an exporters and a bank, they usually need to pay a margin. Some banks may give preferential policies to premium customers without margin, or replace the margin with the amount of enterprise credit.

Before the maturity of the foreign exchange contract is due, if the US dollar spot rate rises to the contract execution rate, if the exchange rate is 6.30 and the spot exchange rate is 6.40, then the customer will lose the book.

Although the US dollar exchange rate may still fall below 6.30 at the time when the contract expires, if the margin is insufficient to make up for the deficit, the bank will generally require an additional a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > margin < /a >.

In order to ensure the performance of the clients, the banks are likely to require them to pay the deposit at the time.

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< p > for enterprises, additional margin means that the current "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "> financial expenditure < /a > may cause some negative effects on the cash flow of enterprises.

Especially since the sharp depreciation of the RMB since February, many enterprises have to face the pressure of large margin payment.

In order to avoid additional margin in exchange rate fluctuations, many companies hope to sign a new long-term settlement agreement at the highest point of the US dollar or the US dollar's explicit entry into the downstream channel, which directly leads to a wait-and-see attitude when the market volatility is not clear.

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< p > < < a href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > > unilateral appreciation > /a > environment, due to the low probability of bank loans, the banks' management of margin is relatively loose. However, in the context of increasing bilateral exchange rate fluctuations, banks are bound to tighten their policy.

However, if an enterprise delays the settlement time in order to avoid the margin payment, it is likely to miss a better market opportunity and make a mistake of "losing the watermelon to pick sesame".

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< p > two is the wrong performance appraisal standard.

In the period of unilateral appreciation of RMB, the vast majority of enterprises that signed long-term forward settlement contracts benefited from the appreciation of the renminbi, and the forward contracts were gradually alienated from the hedging instruments into a profit making tool.

When evaluating the performance of financial executives, many executives are accustomed to comparing the spot exchange rate and the execution rate when the contract expires. If the former is higher than the latter, the financial director must interpret the "wrong" contract price, even affect the performance appraisal, whereas on the contrary, it will be regarded as a financial reward.

In fact, the role of forward settlement is to lock in corporate earnings and avoid the risk of exchange rate fluctuations. Once a contract is signed, if it meets the requirements of the enterprise at that time, it can not be used to evaluate the financial decision at the spot exchange rate at the time of expiration of the contract, otherwise, the financial manager will have to worry about the gains and losses.

In the case of a significant increase in the two-way fluctuation of RMB, the uncertainty of the spot exchange rate in the future will obviously increase, and the "profit function" of the long-term settlement will inevitably weaken significantly.

If we continue to use the error assessment standard, we will lead the financial director to miss a better time to sign a contract or hesitate to choose a spot paction to completely abandon the risk aversion function provided by the forward contract, which may make the operation of the company more risky.

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