Tian Hongliang: Weak Data Performance In The US

The retail sales and initial unemployment figures released yesterday showed the weakness of the economy, cooling the market's expectations of the Fed's tough stance on inflation. Last week, the United States raised the number of unemployed Jin people to 317 thousand, but it is still below the average level since 2014. Retail sales in the US grew less than market expectations in May, and the growth rate slowed down for two consecutive months. Worries about Iraq's replay may also affect the oil supply.

The outbreak of war in Iraq has led investors to worry about rising geopolitical clashes and rising oil prices. Iraq is the second largest oil producing country of the organization of petroleum exporting countries. The focus of the market is now turning to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy conference next week.

Retail sales data are somewhat worrying for investors who are expected to grow economically. If growth does not increase, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike will be cooled. U. S. treasury bond yields fell, US Treasury bonds narrowed more than the bid debt, and the euro / US dollar rebounded after a continuous fall, but the rebound would not be too big.

Technically speaking, despite the fact that the US dollar index averaging system continues to maintain a multi head distribution, it has not yet completed its short run below the support of the 5 and 10 day moving average. Today's initial support in 80.45 - 80.50, the important support in 80.35 - 80.40. rebound today, the initial resistance is 80.70 - 70.75, the important resistance is 80.90 - 80.95. The resistance on the US dollar index 81 will not be able to break through in the short term. In this case, the US dollar's retreat is normal.

　　 dollar Today, the main reason is that short selling is mainly based on short selling, breaking the stops and stopping profits. If there are more than 30 profit points, we will set a good stop to win. Before we open the market, we will withdraw all the outstanding transactions. This strategy is suitable for margin and can be taken as a reference.

　　 US dollar index It can be sold at the upper limit of the 80.75----80.35 interval, effectively breaking the 25 point stop loss, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

Euro / US dollar: it can buy at the lower limit of the 1.3605----1.3525 interval, effectively break 35 points and stop the loss, and the target is in the upper limit of the interval.

　　 Pound US dollar: we can buy at the lower limit of the 1.6990----1.6880 interval, effectively break 40 points, stop the loss, and aim at the upper limit of the interval.

USD / CHF: it can be sold at the upper limit of the 0.9000----0.8940 interval, effectively breaking 30 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

USD / yen: it can be sold at the upper limit of the 102.00----101.30 interval, effectively breaking 30 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

Australian dollar / US dollar: it can buy at the lower limit of the 0.9490----0.9380 interval, effectively break 30 points and stop the loss, and the target is in the upper limit of the interval.

USD / Canadian Dollar: it can be sold at the upper limit of the 1.0870----1.0820 interval, effectively breaking 30 point stops, and the target is at the lower limit of the interval.

Gold: it can buy at the lower limit of 1278 - 1265, and effectively break $6.

Silver: it can buy at the lower limit of 19.65 - 19.35, and effectively break the position of 0.2 US dollars, and the target is in the upper limit of the interval.

The above strategy is calculated by my intelligent trading system, and investors are asked to adjust accordingly according to the specific market.