China'S Foreign Trade: Read "Eight Key Words"

< p > < strong > warmer Keywords: "promotion, stability, new and dissipation" < /strong > < /p >
< p > latest data show that China's "a href=" http:// "www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > Import and export < /a > gross year-on-year growth rate has achieved positive growth in the two quarter, especially in May and June, the growth rate of import and export growth is expanding month by month. < /p >
In July 10th, at the news conference held by the new China office, the spokesman for the General Administration of customs and the director general of the comprehensive statistics department, Cheng Yue Sheng, summed up the reasons for the gradual warming up of imports and exports to four words: "promotion, stability, innovation and elimination". < /p >
< p > promotion is promotion. In May 4th this year, the general office of the State Council issued some opinions on supporting the steady growth of foreign trade. Subsequently, the Customs General Administration and other departments of the State Council have introduced supporting measures in succession, and Guangdong, Jiangsu and other foreign trade provinces have formulated corresponding implementation plans. In the first quarter, the leading index of foreign trade was 41.6, and the average index in the two quarter reached 42.1, an increase of 0.5, indicating that the trend towards better exports will become more obvious. < /p >
< p > "this phenomenon shows that a series of policies and measures at the central and local levels have already worked together to effectively boost the confidence of foreign trade enterprises, and the positive effects of supporting the steady growth of foreign trade are emerging." Zheng Yuesheng pointed out. < /p >
< p > stable: the economic situation is stable. In July 3rd, JP Morgan released data showing that the average PMI output index of the whole industry in the two quarter of this year was 54.1, the best level since the first quarter of 2011. These data indicate that the global economy is experiencing a sustained recovery and the external demand of China's foreign trade will be further improved. < /p >
< p > "new" - some new a href= "http:// www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > trade format < /a > development and speed up has become a new highlight to enhance the level of opening up to the outside world. From the end of 2012, the General Administration of Customs launched pilot projects for cross-border e-commerce in 5 cities. In October 1, 2013, the Shanghai free trade pilot zone was officially launched. In addition, China actively participated in the construction of the high standard free trade area and accelerated the negotiation of the FTA. The strategic concept of building the Silk Road Economic Belt and the twenty-first Century Maritime Silk Road has been actively reacted by the international community. < /p >
< p > "elimination" - last year 1~4 months, China's foreign trade import and export base was relatively high, resulting in a negative growth in import and export in the same period this year. Since late April, with the disappearance of these high base effects, China's import and export growth has achieved a positive growth in May and June. < /p >
< p > < strong > trend new observation: foreign trade 7.5% growth < a href= "http:// www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > target > /a > how far is it < /strong > /p >
What is the trajectory of foreign trade in the second half of the year? Can the growth target of 7.5% of foreign trade be achieved in the whole year? < /p > p
< p > "we expect that the growth rate of foreign trade imports and exports will accelerate further in the three quarter of this year than in the two quarter." Zheng Yuesheng told reporters. < /p >
In June 10th, the World Bank released the global economic outlook report. The global economy is expected to accelerate in the second half of this year. The annual growth rate will reach 2.8%, 0.4 percentage points higher than that in 2013. < /p >
Since the beginning of this year, China has steadily pushed forward the market-oriented reform of exchange rate. Under the premise of maintaining a basically stable level of RMB exchange rate, we should expand the floating range of the RMB exchange rate in an orderly way and enhance the elasticity of the two-way floating of the RMB exchange rate. P In particular, the expectation of unilateral appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has been broken, and the exchange rate pressure of export enterprises has also been released. < /p >
< p > Zheng Yuesheng said that in recent months, the proportion of enterprises reflecting the increase in exchange rate costs is falling from the survey of Internet outlets of export enterprises. In the same period, export enterprises also reflected that enterprises most hoped that the RMB exchange rate remained relatively stable. China's export enterprises should actively use exchange rate hedging tools to reduce the risk of exchange rate fluctuations and enhance the competitiveness of China's foreign trade exports. < /p >
< p > > four positive and advantageous factors of "promoting, stabilizing, new and eliminating" are expected to play a further role in the second half of this year, and the trend of stabilizing foreign trade will be further consolidated. Import and export growth is expected to be significantly higher in the second half of this year than in the first half. But at the same time, we must also see that the foreign trade is still facing a serious and complicated situation. The task of achieving the expected growth target of 7.5% is still very arduous. Zheng Yuesheng emphasized. < /p >
< p > < strong > must face directly: "turn, return, weak, rub" < /strong > < /p >.
< p > Zheng Yuesheng also has four words to summarize the unfavorable factors that affect the development of China's foreign trade in the second half of the year. < /p >
< p > "turn" - traditional manufacturing industries, especially labor-intensive goods, are moving faster to neighboring countries such as Southeast Asia. The main market share of labor-intensive products in Europe, America and Japan continued to decline. In the first quarter of this year, China's textile and other 7 categories of labor-intensive commodities dropped 0.6 percentage points in the US market, and dropped 0.9 percentage points and 2.4 percentage points respectively in the European Union and Japan. < /p >
< p > > "back" - data show that in the 1~5 months of this year, China's manufacturing industry actually used foreign capital of 17 billion 400 million US dollars, down 16.5%. Meanwhile, the analysis of the IMF pointed out that the competitiveness of the US dollar, the cheap energy generated by the shale gas revolution, and the narrowing of labor costs in emerging economies pushed us manufacturing recovery. The return of manufacturing industry and the cooling of foreign investment in developed countries will have a certain impact on China's related industries and foreign trade. < /p >
< p > "weak" - the continuous increase of production cost elements such as labor has weakened the competitiveness of China's export products. In June this year, a total of nearly 2000 enterprises surveyed by the General Administration of Customs showed that 61% of the enterprises thought that the comprehensive cost of exports increased year by year, and 65.2% of enterprises reflected the increase of labor cost. < /p >
< p > "Mo" - the aggravation of trade friction has restrained the further expansion of our export space. At present, Global trade protectionism continues to rise and trade restrictions are increasing. Since 2014, Global trade protectionism has become increasingly fierce. In May, there were up to 6 trade relief actions against China's exports. In May 14th, the European Union made an arbitration ruling to impose anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties on solar glass produced in China. < /p >