Can The Spandex Market Go Smoothly After The Peak Season?

September is another turning point in the spandex industry. According to the trend of the past years, after the arrival of this traditional demand season, the market of spandex will continue to rise and the market will gradually boom.

And this year, after several consecutive months of decline, can the spandex industry reverse this? What are the problems facing the spandex industry in terms of supply and demand?

It is reported that

The main consumption terminals are downstream weaving enterprises, including circular machines, wrapped yarns, cotton bags, warp knitted fabrics, lace and other industries.

The prosperity of the spandex market is greatly influenced by the demand of the above industries.

At present, however, the real demand in the downstream market is not as good as in 2013.

It is reported that since the peak demand for fine denier yarn in the first half of the year, the downstream load of the spandex industry has been shaking down. Until August, the load of the circular machine industry has dropped to 3-4. The highest lace industry has been maintained at 6 up and down (Figure 2).

At the beginning of September, there is a slight upward trend in the load of downstream industries. If the starting load of the weaving enterprises can continue upward, demand will gradually improve or the spandex industry will gradually pick up.

But at present, the overall market has no obvious signs of warming, if later.

Entry is still less, and the downstream replenishment cycle will be extended.

Supply is stable and abundant, and inventory level remains high.

It is reported that the development of the spandex industry last year is relatively optimistic, the overall load of the industry is relatively high, and some small factories are also put into operation.

Spanning the whole year, the overall load of the spandex industry continued to be high, basically maintained at 9 up and down, and the supply of the market was stable and abundant. However, as the downstream procurement basically met the rigid demand of its own, the pressure from the manufacturers was great, and the production and marketing situation in the field was hard to balance.

Up to now, the overall inventory level of the spandex industry is relatively high. The inventory level of the whole industry is 30-40 days, and the highest is over 45 days, and some manufacturers are even higher.

At present, most mainstream manufacturers are basically full load production, inventory level is higher, if the downstream market demand is still no significant improvement, in the later stage, some manufacturers can reduce production and reduce load to avoid inventory backlog.

In addition, the launch of new capacity will also have a certain impact on the supply of the whole market.

It is reported that in the first half of this year, the new increase in production of spandex industry in the first half of this year is not much, in the second half of the year, Fujian Changle Heng Shen 20 thousand tons / year device, Huafeng spandex in Chongqing 30 thousand tons / year device and the new timber 10 thousand tons per year will be released by the end of this year, the short time to the overall market supply is small, but the business behind the market mentality or is relatively pessimistic.

Moreover, the operation of the spandex market and its post market performance are also related to the profits of the industry.

It is reported that although the price of spandex market continues to descend, the price of spandex itself is high, even if the center of trade is low, the overall industry profits are still considerable.

It is reported that the average price of spandex 40D is 48000 yuan / ton, and the profit is roughly 4960 yuan / ton.

Because the industry has a higher profit, so even in the latter part of the price, there will be more downside space. First of all, it will also be the industry profit. The impact on the spandex industry is relatively small, and the market of the latter is still abundant.

Market mentality is different, market improvement, waiting for supply and demand improvement

On the whole, the overall market performance of spandex is more tangled in terms of supply and demand. The current situation is basically characterized by lack of upward momentum and limited downlink space.

Recently, some businesses began to hope that the demand will be better after the arrival of the traditional demand season, and there will be more optimistic expectations for the post market situation.

Another part of the manufacturers due to the current slow down of the start-up load of the downstream manufacturers, the lack of follow-up demand, the market outlook is still on the wait-and-see mentality, indicating that although the current part of the downstream industry due to the previous inventory has been consumed more, but the good support factors in the field are insufficient, the arrival period of the replenishment period will be delayed.

As we all know, the supply and demand situation determines the price, the current supply and demand situation has not changed significantly, the operation atmosphere is relatively cautious, and whether the spandex market can be reversed smoothly needs to pay close attention to the arrival of the downstream demand improvement period.