Cotton Prices Fell For Three Consecutive Months

　　 High domestic inventories

It is understood that in recent years, the main contract of zhengmian will go lower and lower, and the reduction will be more than 2%, due to the negative impact of the USDA monthly report and the domestic market. Stock A double blow to a record high. Insiders say that the US cotton market will remain weak in the short term, and there will still be some room for decline in the domestic market.

According to media reports, recently, cotton 1501 main contract reported 14460 yuan / ton, fell 2.13%; 352 thousand positions, turnover 200 thousand hands. During the Intercontinental Exchange, cotton prices fell, and ICE-12 cotton fell 0.32 cents, or 0.5%, at 64.35 cents a pound. According to China cotton information network data, recently, China's cotton stock has set a new high, reaching about 11 million 600 thousand tons of inventory, accounting for more than 60% of the world.

Yi De futures analyst Yi Le recently said in an interview with the media that after three years of continuous storage and storage, the domestic stock has reached the extreme value of history. This year, the policy of purchasing and storage is changed to direct subsidy. The market is concerned that the loosening of the policy market will impact cotton prices. Guoxin futures analyst Zhu Chenyao believes that the cotton growth period is lagging behind this year and the new cotton market will be postponed due to climate change. Therefore, Zheng cotton will be strong in the short term, but it will remain short for a long time.

In addition, the downstream demand of domestic textile enterprises has shrunk, and the auction has not been positive. According to the insiders, although the quality of cotton reserves is uneven, it is difficult to get rid of the warehouse as a main reason to restrict the enthusiasm of the enterprises. But more importantly, the textile enterprises take care of the goods and buy them more than they want.

　　 American cotton Output hit a four year high.

USDA's recent August supply and demand report shows that the US cotton output will reach 17 million 500 thousand packs in August, a 4 year high and a high end of the industry forecast range. In addition, USDA said that by July 31, 2015, domestic cotton stocks are expected to soar 115% to 5 million 600 thousand packs, the highest since 1986.

SterlingSmith, a market expert at Citigroup futures in Chicago, estimates that cotton prices in New York, which have fallen by 25% this year, will drop by 9.3% by the end of the year. USDA predicts that the decline in drought in Dezhou indicates that the cotton harvest in the United States will grow by 36% this year, the largest increase since 2011. The improvement of planting environment, along with China's stock raising, made cotton prices fall for the three consecutive month, the longest consecutive three consecutive years.

　　 Hualian futures Analyst Ding Yongxin said that the USDA report increased the US cotton output and inventory in the US 2014/15 year, slightly reducing the end of the world cotton inventory, while the global consumption increased by 4%. It is expected that the USDA report and the sharp decline in US cotton will make Zheng cotton short term pressure.

The spot quotation of cotton information network shows that in August 15th, the international cotton index was 80.67, up 7 points, equivalent to the general trade port delivery price of 12718 yuan / ton, the international cotton index 76.65 cents, or 7 points, equivalent to the general trade port delivery price 12095 yuan / ton.

Insiders said that the new cotton market in the domestic market will be affected, and the textile enterprises will be warming up stage by stage. Under the policy interference, the short-term cotton prices will stop and fall, but the cotton price in the middle period will remain pessimistic.