Guo Shiliang: Shanghai And Hong Kong Have Become The Biggest Lies?

7 years ago, the Hong Kong stock through train has given the market great expectations.

However, after a lapse of many months, the Hong Kong stock through train was eventually postponed indefinitely.

Looking back on the history of that year, in August 20, 2007, the State Administration of foreign exchange issued the pilot scheme for the direct investment of domestic individuals in overseas securities markets. The Tianjin branch of Bank of China will launch the Personal Investment Hong Kong stock business.

Since then, there has been a heated debate over whether the Hong Kong stock through train is open or not.

At that time, some commentators believed that the opening of Hong Kong stock through train would be harmful to the country.

The debate continued.

In November 2007, management hinted at the implementation of the required time and postponed the policy of the Hong Kong stock through train indefinitely.

At this point, the heated debate finally came to an end.

In fact, the essence of Hong Kong stock through train is to relax restrictions on domestic investment by individuals.

Shanghai and Hong Kong not only allow mainland investors to buy shares from the Hong Kong stock exchange, but also approve Hongkong investors to buy shares from the Shanghai stock exchange, that is, the two-way opening of the capital market.

Over the past 7 years, the launch of Shanghai and Hong Kong has brought good expectations to Hongkong and the mainland market.

Shanghai and Hong Kong can be described as an upgraded version of Hong Kong stock through train.

In April 10, 2014, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Hongkong Securities Regulatory Commission issued a joint announcement, announcing the decision to carry out a pilot scheme for the interconnection mechanism between Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets.

At the same time, the SFC pointed out that the total amount of the Shanghai and Hong Kong pass is 550 billion yuan, and the balance of individual investors' capital accounts involving Hong Kong stocks is no less than RMB 500 thousand yuan, while the formal start of Shanghai and Hong Kong needs 6 months' preparation time.

In the next few months, the preparatory work for Shanghai and Hong Kong is accelerating.

On the 26 day of last month, the Shanghai Stock Exchange officially released the "Shanghai Stock Exchange Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong pilot scheme" and related documents, indicating that the preparatory work of Shanghai and Hong Kong through "opening to traffic" is nearly completed, and its opening time is quite close.

However, when Hong Kong and Shanghai were ready to "open to traffic", there were some changes.

On the one hand, influenced by the unexpected events in Hongkong, it will bring certain influence to the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong.

On the other hand, the preparatory work for Shanghai and Hong Kong has not yet been completed, and there are some tax, technical and other factors, which will bring some obstacles to the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong through the scheduled period.

Shanghai and Hong Kong through the market has been considered to be a direct factor to promote the sharp rise of the two markets.

Obviously, between April and September this year, the index of both markets rose to varying degrees.

Among them, the largest increase in the Hong Kong stock market during the period was nearly 20%, while the mainland market also had a nearly 15% rise.

For Shanghai and Hong Kong, the most direct driving force for the two markets is inseparable from huge new liquidity expectations.

In fact, according to the preliminary design of Shanghai and Hong Kong, Shanghai and Hong Kong will enjoy more profits than the Hong Kong stock market.

In terms of rules, the Hongkong Securities Regulatory Commission has set certain requirements for mainland investors to invest in the Hong Kong stock market.

Among them, domestic investors who participate in Hong Kong stocks are limited to institutional investors and individual investors whose securities accounts and capital account balances are not less than RMB 500 thousand yuan.

In addition, such as opening and closing time, trading system and other settings have a negative impact on the mainland market.

It is worth mentioning that, according to the analysis of ROI in the past two years, the Hong Kong stock market is significantly better than the mainland market.

In accordance with the above provisions, Shanghai and Hong Kong through "open to traffic" will largely attract a large number of mainland investment funds into the Hong Kong stock market, thus giving the mainland market a certain degree of diversion of funds.

For now, Hong Kong and Hong Kong, originally scheduled to open in October, are doomed to delay in opening to traffic.

However, this is not necessarily a good thing for the mainland market.

stay

Speculation is expected to be the usual practice of big funds and big institutions.

With the success of the policy, we will announce the end of a hype market.

author

It is believed that Shanghai and Hong Kong can not be "open to traffic" as scheduled, which has a certain influence on large capital institutions and ordinary investors.

Among them, yes.

As a matter of fact, Shanghai and Hong Kong have not been able to "open to traffic" as scheduled, and their policy has already lost their confidence. Shanghai Hong Kong pass is more like a big lie.

For large funds and large institutions, the "traffic" in Shanghai and Hong Kong is expected to give them good reasons for speculation.

However, once the Hong Kong and Shanghai Tong can "open to traffic" on schedule, or will lead some large capital and large institutions to escape from the mainland market and enter the Hong Kong stock market with more investment expectation, which will directly lose the mainland market.

Now, Shanghai and Hong Kong have postponed "opening up", and the big capital institutions are unable to enter the Hong Kong stock market for the time being, making it difficult for them to further affect the mainland market.

Perhaps, for ordinary investors in the mainland, we should be grateful.