SOE Reform + Monetary Easing Expectation

At the beginning of this week, the market came out of a sharp dive in bad news, and the 3100 point was lost. Since then, the management's position is not to suppress the stock market. At the same time, the central bank confirmed that the sequel MLF and the scale increased by 50 billion, and in the open market to restart the reverse repurchase, and so on. In the end, the whole week ended in a small decline of 0.73%, the gem rose 3.52%, and the total volume of two cities increased 37.65% compared with the previous week. This shows that there is an acceleration of outflow of funds in the field, because of the sensitivity to policies. off-market liquidity Entering the market, market sentiment fluctuated and market confidence was unstable.

This week, as a whole, the quantity can be enlarged, the degree of differentiation of stocks has been enlarged, the activity of stocks has not been reduced, the market hot spots have been transformed rapidly, and the market style has also accelerated "Circulation". The market has both the effect of making money and the effect of losing money. The effect of the "Besieged" effect of the market is expanding, and the acceleration of capital flowing into and out of the market has been fully reflected in this week. When the elephant and pig behave in turn, the rotation of "28" and "82" phenomena will help the market to suppress the trend ahead of time, but it also inhibits the uplink of the market.

From a technical point of view, this week, the market first suppressed after Yang, out of the trend of large shocks, the market has created a new high, has fallen below the previous week low point, the amplitude is as high as 10%, the 5 week average is also lost, the market is a price increase trend. Due to the high operation of the technical indicators on the weekly line and the limited uplink space, the short-term market continues to oscillate in the same way.

Technical indicators on the daily line showed that Friday's large market intraday increase, the intraday price hit a new high, the market showed a slight increase in the price increase trend, but the continuous divergence of technical indicators, leading to the top of the market failure, the Japanese K-line combination shows that the short term market will continue to shock finishing, the 18 day average support strength will be tested. Market The shape of the top of the bell mouth is embryonic.

The technical indicators of the timesharing chart show that the short term timesharing technology indicators are deviated from the bottom line, and the short-term market will be repeated again and again, but the technical indicators of the charts are running at a high level at a long time, which indicates that the short-term market is hard to go up sharply, and the technical adjustment requirements of the market remain.

Comprehensive technical analysis, we believe that the short-term market upside space is limited, although the technical adjustment requirements, but the downward space is limited, in addition to the reasonable price volume to match, the news and policy aspects are crucial.

from global market To look at it, we believe that in addition to the US economy and the global economic downturn, Canada will join the interest rate cutting trend, and Denmark will cut interest rates unexpectedly. Europe's QE will have trillions of Euro Liquidity injection. The US dollar has risen sharply in the global interest rate cut, and the global currency war is in full swing. In addition to the strong US dollar, the rest of the world has fallen sharply. Although the strategy of the US dollar is still focused mainly on the US dollar, there has been a downward trend. In addition, although the newly released PMI data is better than expected, it is still under the 50 line of growth and decline. The market is expected to further ease the central bank's easing policy, and the pressure of further devaluation of the RMB remains. In order to promote the internationalization of RMB, the role of the A share market is becoming more and more important in order to stabilize the RMB exchange rate and prevent the accelerated flow of hot money.

Our recent view of the broader market is that this year is the key year for China's reform. The double requirement of "SOE reform + currency war" makes it difficult for the A share market to have a big adjustment trend. A shares' 1. 19 'big diving trend is hard to appear again.

In terms of operation, buying and selling will not catch up, insisting on stock selection is more important than choosing the right idea. Insisting on the basis of market determines the long-term trend of stocks. The central line will continue to lay out financial, intermediate, and country name shares. It is concerned about the opportunities to fall, pay attention to the risk of rising, and continue to pay attention to low price blue chips with rising demand.