Li Zhilin: New Understanding Of Stock Market In 2015

1, strengthening the 2015 stock market is the judgment of "small year".

After closing at 3234 at the end of 2014 and increasing by 53%, new year's day just passed and quickly rushed to 3400 points.

Market opinion and institutions are much more numerous.

I put forward that the 2015 stock market is the "small year", the most 15%-20% increase point of view, that the 3300 - 3400 point position is not directly upward attack, but first down down the shadow line to 3000 points, and then the slow ox upward, used to return to the shock to expand the space.

Sure enough, the market failed to return at 3400 points and three times, and it fell back to 3049 at the same time, and gradually picked up. It took more than 2 months. This weekend, the Shanghai Composite Index rose only 7 points from the end of last year.

In the face of merciless facts, people have to admit that the stock market in 2015 was a "small year".

2, the market will take a long time as a "mad cow" market to "repay debts".

At the end of last year, after the first cut of interest rates for 11.21, the market was performing a round of "mad cow" market in 25 days from 2486 to 3234 and 30.1%.

The problem now is: in the first two months, about 12 trillion of the volume was accumulated in the 3300-3400 point interval, mainly due to the large number of funds and financing disks held in the brokerage stocks, bank shares, insurance stocks, and stock market capitalization.

Today, these stocks have fallen from the head of 30%-40%, and the premium of H-share is 30%. In order to collapse such a heavy head, it is very difficult to find the amount of capital like December last year to act as the PLA.

Therefore, if the stock market continues to "stir up big" in 2015, the index will break through 3400 points, which is extremely difficult no matter from the fundamentals or from the policy level, or from the capital side.

Without a year or so of concussion and digestion, it is difficult to solve the problem of high volume chips.

Just as in December 4, 2012, "chips in blue chips have rare investment value", the chips stuck in the market did not disappear until December 2014.

At the end of last year and early this year, many of the high brokers in the securities, insurance, banking and cyclical market capitalization, especially those with a high proportion of financing, are now losing their profits and losing a lot of money. They have missed the stock market for more than 2 months.

This is the price paid for the mad bull market.

3, the "small year" of the stock market should be called "out of bounds war".

At the beginning of the year, I put forward a new idea of "overlooking the 2000 point stocks at 3400 points", which only took two months to achieve great results.

One is to copy the bottom of the gem.

I remember that when the stock market was frying in full swing, there was a public opinion that the gem was classified as "black five categories". The people who laughed at buying the GEM board were "full warehouse empty".

At the same time, the gem has dropped to 1471 points, returning to the position in late January 2014, corresponding to the Shanghai composite index is 2000 points.

At this point, investing in the gem is equivalent to copying the bottom of the market at 2000 times.

Indeed, in just 2 months, the gem rose to 2032 points, or up to 38.1%.

Two is to copy the equivalent of 2000 points in the state-owned asset reform concept stocks, restructuring stocks, pformation and upgrading stocks.

In the past 2 months, it has also won the market in an all-round way.

Such as Shen Da shares rose from 7.97 to 14.69 yuan, up 84.3%; Haibo shares rose 8.64 from 8.64 to 13.23 yuan; Shanghai Meilin 9.38 - 12.33 yuan, up 31.4%.

And so on, all the same.

The value of the growth enterprise market seems to lie in its high growth, but in fact its overfall.

When the gem stock market has seen a general inflation, skyrocketing and overgrowth, it will not be worth investment if it matches or exceeds its growth.

Recently, when the growth enterprise market rose to 2030 points, the market public opinion appeared many strange theories.

A well-known fund industry researcher said: "in 2000, when the NASDAQ index reached 5000 points in the US, the P / E ratio was as high as 200 times, while the current China Gem price earnings ratio is only 70 times, so the index can also rise 2 times".

More people have called the slogan "the GEM market has just started and the index can rise to 9000 points". It is said that many people still believe in it.

The market often dies in a craziness. This week, after about 85000000000 days of continuous release, the stock market suddenly dropped by 63 points, or 3.15%, on Friday, which is likely to form a band head.

So, after the gem has surged 38% to 2032 points this year, I also want to say: in the next 10 months, the growth enterprise market is also a "small year"!

The annual stock market focuses on the two sessions.

What is the new hot spot for the two sessions this year?

The government work report was listed by the Xinhua News Agency on 100 dry goods, of which twenty-third were closely related to the stock market, focusing on the reform of state owned enterprises, emphasizing the need for orderly implementation, focusing on promoting, encouraging and standardizing simultaneously.

Visible, innovation and use of state-owned assets operation platform to orderly promote the reform of state-owned assets, will become a new hot spot in the next market.

Before the Spring Festival, the Shanghai state capital operation platform was announced as the first in the country, and the first batch of three groups and companies to enter the platform was announced.

The 4 shares of Guangming group, which focused on the reform of mixed ownership, have been most popular in recent days and have good market performance.

It is estimated that the funds from the gem will not buy large cap stocks, but will mainly turn to the first batch of companies that have entered the Shanghai state owned operation platform with policies and subjects.

If we say, 2015

Full of uncertainty, then Shanghai's state-owned asset reform concept stocks, which are most supportive of policies and have exogenous growth and fundamentally change the company's fundamentals and performance, are equivalent to the relative certainty.

6, as long as the five week average line is not broken, you can rest assured of stocks.

There is an important experience in the history of the slow bull market: as long as the five week average line is not broken, it can be held up, and it is safe to operate stocks.

The sharp drop in the index caused by the heavyweight is not the sign of the main departure and the top of the market. It is a behavior of changing the stock and changing the stock market and strategically suppressing the company. There is no need for fear at all.

The market has not yet fallen below the five week average of 3215 points, and the 3230 point position has been closed for 9 consecutive days, and the rising trend is in good condition.

At the weekend, the securities and Futures Commission said it was studying the issue of issuing a securities licence to banks, which is a positive sign for the government to rescue banks. It is estimated that bank stocks will rebound next week, which will play an important role in stabilizing the 3200 platforms of the market.

If the five week average line is not broken next Monday and Tuesday, and the 3230 point will not be broken, then the market will probably again deduce a continuous "slow up" market, and seize the good opportunity for the two level market to build positions in a low position. The proceeds will be much larger than the purchase of new shares.