Environmental Constraints And Pressure Affect The Three Quarter Of The Textile Industry Or Overall Losses

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The three quarter of the year will usher in a profit recovery market, and affected by environmental policy constraints. Viscose staple fiber prices will rise sharply, and enter the profit section as a whole. In the three quarter, the textile industry or the whole sector will turn around.

Earlier, the textile market predicted that the company's viscose staple fiber business could turn around in 2016.

However, because the company has a certain size of viscose staple fiber production capacity in Xinjiang, the company will be affected by relevant policy changes, which will make the viscose staple fiber business lose its time ahead of schedule.

Environmental constraints will continue to increase in the future.

At present, viscose staple fiber is in the 7 and August sales season.

Two factors have led to a short-term upward trend in viscose staple fiber prices.

On the one hand, during the off-season, the industry ushered in the equipment maintenance season, and the supply was reduced.

According to some agencies forecast, the current overhaul season, the industry overhaul and shut down production capacity may be around 200 thousand tons.

On the other hand, under the constraints of environmental policy, some viscose short fiber production capacity is in the state of "shutdown", mainly Xinjiang viscose short fiber production capacity, the region's overall capacity accounts for about 20% of the total capacity of the country, at present, a considerable part of the production capacity is in the state of production.

Other regional viscose staple fibers, such as Putian's 100 thousand tons of capacity, are also shut down due to environmental factors.

Viscose staple fiber industry is affected by environmental factors, resulting in a wide range of shutdowns, resulting in shrinkage of viscose staple fibers, and the number of days of inventory maintenance has dropped significantly, and prices have risen.

At present, the stock maintenance cycle of viscose staple fiber industry has dropped sharply from more than 20 days in early 2015.

Industry leader Sanyou chemical personage said, at present, the number of days of inventory maintenance is about 10 days.

The low inventory level shows that viscose staple prices are rising strongly in the short term.

Optimistic market participants expect that in the second half of the year, the price of viscose staple fiber is expected to rise to 15000 yuan per ton.

The forecast is mainly based on current industry supply and demand performance.

That is to say, under the pressure of environmental protection, the pressure of enterprises to stop production is greater. In the second half of the year, the market of high season industries, such as the enterprises that stop production, have not yet resumed work, and the price of viscose staple fiber may skyrocket.

At present, when Xinjiang viscose staple fiber capacity is resumed, there is a big uncertainty.

Because Xinjiang is in a weak water ecological environment and its ethnic composition is rather complicated, quite a few people believe that the short term reproductivity of viscose staple fiber in Xinjiang is not very optimistic.

Overall, the environmental pressure of viscose staple fiber will continue to increase in the future, which will help industry consolidation, concentration and price rise.

People familiar with the matter told great wisdom news agency that the Ministry of environmental protection is soliciting opinions on the standards of waste gas recycling in viscose fiber industry, and it is possible to introduce relevant standards in the future.

The new standards will enhance environmental thresholds from several aspects, such as drastically lowering the relevant indicators of exhaust emissions and setting up rigid recovery targets for waste gas.

According to the source, according to the existing exhaust gas

A considerable part of the viscose fiber enterprise's practice is "to create a large smokestack", starting from 80 meters high, and gradually increasing to 100 meters and 120 meters with the increase of production capacity.

By exhausts the exhaust gas to the high altitude, the exhaust gas diffuses naturally at high altitude, and integrates into the ground concentration so as to achieve the standard.

With the introduction of a new standard, such as the introduction of more stringent emission limits for carbon disulfide, "most existing viscose plants may not be able to do anything".

Because engineering design has been "fixed" in the past, the space for modification of engineering design is relatively small, and the cost of adjustment and alteration is rather difficult.

For example, for carbon disulfide and other waste gas emissions to develop rigid recovery targets, then the corresponding enterprise environmental input costs will rise sharply, will accelerate the integration of the industry.

Cotton price still exists.

Viscose staple fiber industry's current market opportunities are mainly based on the favorable market integration under the tightening of environmental protection policies.

There is no essential improvement in the fundamentals of the industry, and it may restrict the price of viscose staple fiber.

At present, the overall production capacity of viscose staple fiber industry is around 3 million 500 thousand tons. In recent years, the demand side of the industry has been weak, and the annual natural growth rate has not exceeded double digits.

In fact, over the past few years, excess capacity has led to a sluggish sales of viscose staple fibers, resulting in the loss of most enterprises in the industry.

Therefore, if there is no environmental policy constraint on the supply side, based on the relative downturn in the textile market and the low price of cotton, the space for the sale of viscose staple fiber will be greatly limited.

At present, the price of domestic cotton (standard class) is about 13200 yuan per ton, and the price of viscose staple fiber is basically the same.

As an alternative product of cotton, viscose staple fiber has maintained a price difference of 2000-5000 yuan per ton for a long time in order to maintain product competitiveness.

As viscose staple prices exceed cotton prices, the market may gradually shift to cotton.

However, judging from the short-term market performance, the three quarter profit recovery of viscose staple fiber manufacturing enterprises is still a big probability event, because the viscose staple fiber has increased since the three quarter and the short-term pull factor has not "quit".

In the three quarter, the industry or the whole sector turned around.

The three quarter has risen 6%. The price index of the medium fibre price in July was 27 yuan daily, 13200 yuan per ton, while the big wisdom news agency research and some mainstream brands showed that the price of 1.5D products has reached 13400-13500 yuan per ton interval.

If calculated at 13200 yuan per ton, the price of viscose staple fiber rose by 740 yuan per ton in the three quarter.

Since then, viscose staple prices have been "separated" from the two quarter of the 12000-12500 yuan per ton industry profit and loss interval.

In the three quarter, the overall profit reversal.

On the commercial level of leading enterprises, due to the fact that the manufacturing cost of enterprises is significantly lower than the average level of the industry, the rising price of viscose staple fiber is expected to increase the profit performance of related companies.

According to earlier brokerage estimates, the average price of viscose staple fiber rose 1000 yuan / ton, thickening 600409.SH and 002172.SZ (medical business unlisted) earnings per share were 0.16 yuan, 0.28 yuan.