PTA Supply And Demand Tends To Balance Temporarily, Attracting Much Attention

Recently, the international crude oil price rebounded strongly, WTI11 crude oil futures price rebounded rapidly from the low point of 44 US dollars / barrel to 50 US dollars / barrel.

First of all, the number of us oil drilling platforms continues to decrease.

By the week of October 9th, the number of oil drilling platforms in the United States decreased from 9 to 605, the lowest level since July 2010.

In the past 5 weeks, the total number of drilling platforms has decreased by 61, the longest weekly decline since June.

Second, Russia's actions have boosted the oil market.

Recently, Russia's energy minister announced that Russia is willing to discuss the global oil market with OPEC and non OPEC oil producers, so that the market is expected to heat up the future production of crude oil.

Finally, the Fed's meeting hinted that it was not eager to raise interest rates, which weakened the US dollar index and boosted crude oil prices.

The recent rebound in crude oil prices has led to an overall improvement in the chemical market. CFR China's main port PX price jumped to $800 / ton.

At present, the price difference between PX and naphtha is maintained at the vicinity of 350 US dollars / ton, and PX processing profit is better. Therefore, the production enthusiasm of the plant is guaranteed, and the supply level of PX is stable.

However, the PTA operating rate has remained low for a long time, and the demand for PX is insufficient.

And South Korea's Lotte chemical program in mid October to its 1 million tons of naphtha cracking unit for a month of maintenance, naphtha prices have downward expectations, means that the cost of PX center of gravity or downward.

It is therefore expected that the high price level of PX will continue to rise.

On the whole, the recent rise in PTA prices is mainly driven by the rebound in crude oil prices and the decline in plant operating rate, but the crude oil off-season characteristics remain unchanged, and the basis for continued rebound is unstable.

In addition, PTA

It will be restarted in mid October, and the supply and demand side will not be able to sustain the PTA price, and the cost side will also weaken.

Therefore, we expect that the strength of the PTA price rebound will gradually fail, and the price will be down again after the oscillation of 4800 yuan / ton, and the low oscillation pattern has not changed yet.

The multi factor resonance makes the market ignore the weakness of crude oil.

。

On the one hand, it is the low demand for crude oil, the global refinery overhauled, the US crude oil inventories continued to rise, and the downstream oil stocks continued to grow. On the other hand, Russia and OPEC's crude oil output remained high, and the fundamentals of crude oil supply and demand remained weak.

In short, the upward trend of crude oil prices is unstable and there is still limited room for further rebound.

From the end of September to the beginning of October, Yisheng petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical part of the PTA device was scheduled for overhaul, which led the PTA operating rate to return to a low level near 56%, and the supply of PTA temporarily tightened.

The repair period of the plant is between 10 and 15 days. In the middle and late 10 months, the repair devices will start to restart again, which will offset the overhaul of other devices. It is expected that the PTA operating rate will rise again.

In addition, although the traditional peak season of consumption is now in place, the operating rate of polyester industry has declined.

This shows that the situation of weak demand is difficult to improve, and the downstream polyester factories are not enthusiastic in purchasing, they buy more on demand, and the desire to catch up is not enough.

It is expected that demand side will be temporarily difficult to raise the price of PTA.