Three Major Trends In Textile And Footwear Industry

In 2015, the industry ranked the top three in all sectors of A shares, and the worst of the fundamentals was over.

Recently, the direction of concern of listed companies has gradually shifted from simple pformation hotspots to integrated supply chain management and fine management.

 

Under the deflation background, the consumption structure is turning to service, the traditional channel and the retail sales growth rate all slow down, the C terminal suffers the bottleneck to push the B terminal to go to the inventory stage, and the B terminal horizontal or vertical integration has more room for growth.

From the basic panel block rotation, sub industry adjustment order is generally

Proxy clothes, casual wear, home textiles, men's shoes, men's wear, men's wear and women's wear.

At present, the sub industry turns to the men's clothing industry. We expect that the men's wear industry will have a stronger performance in the bottom line in 2016. It is expected that the women's underwear and baby industry will still be in the stage of rapid growth.

In the new normal economy, the investment logic of consumer goods has changed. Firstly, the driving factors of consumer goods growth from demand driven to specialization and specialization: industry driving factors shift from demand driven to consumption upgrading drive to scale driven effect driven by efficiency driven shift.

Secondly, the commercial logic of consumer goods has shifted from the extension to the merger and integration of the B side. The increase in the C end consumption and the improvement of the retail quality of the C side brought by the expansion of the retail outlets have all met the bottleneck. Under the background of deflation, the B end is forced to improve the overall efficiency through the integration of mergers and acquisitions to achieve the scale effect.

Marketing channels: generation operation company (if Yu Chen, Yucai, Bao Zun electric business), micro business etc.; 2) B end integration / expansion category / Merger: 600146.SH, 002127.SZ, 002776.SZ, Xinmin Technology (002127, stock bar) (002127.SZ, Antarctic electricity supplier), Goris (603808, stock bar) (603808.SH), red bean stock (600400, stock bar) (600400.SH), etc. 3) the whole industry chain integrator, every link achieves high efficiency industry leader: UNIQLO and ZARA, Hai Lan home (600398, stock bar) (600398.SH), Semir dress (002563, stock bar) (002563.SZ). Strong and strong, the industry concentration will be significantly improved in the future. There are typical companies in the industry: 1) build a new distribution system or precision.

There are three major trends in the industry:

Specialization trend, from commodity to service, from heavy assets to light assets: Division of labor tends to specialization division, bringing scale efficiency, light asset service-oriented enterprises will occupy a place; on behalf of the company's mobile social networking platform, micro selling, electricity supplier generation operation company if feather minister and South Pole electricity supplier.

Integration trend, platform advantage is obvious, industry integrator appears: the industry enters surplus capacity to go to inventory stage, vertical integration, horizontal merger and acquisition is one of the ways to expand in the future.

Representing the company's home of Hai Lan (connecting the upstream and downstream supply chain, being well versed in the distribution of pain points) and UNIQLO (the deep integration of the whole industry chain globalization); meticulous division of labor and integration of the future is one of the main ways to strengthen and expand: Division of labor brings opportunities for industrial integrators, reengineering the value system of industrial chain, and the advantages of the platform will help to improve market share.

On behalf of the company to win the world (acquisition of global starlight, supply chain integration + extension merger dual drive) and VF group (continuous acquisition and improvement of brand territory).

From the theme of the heat, the future cross-border electricity providers (cross border (002640, stock bar), 002640.SZ), mobile social networking (Hua shares (002494, stock bar), 002494.SZ), animation and television (Mei Sheng Culture (002699, stock bar) 002699.SZ, Lukang science and Technology (601599, stock bar) 601599.SH, Kaiser shares (002425, stock bar) 002425.SZ, sports industry (Guai bird (603555, stock bar) 603555.SH, Pathfinder (300005, stock bar 300005.SZ) and children's industry (Semir dress 002563.SZ, blonde rabbi (002762, bar bar 002762.SZ), Mei Sheng Culture) five directions will become a continuous hot spot.

At this stage, we can refer to 4 main lines of investment: (1) the leading white horse in the industry with increased market share; the strong supply chain system; the integrator of the industry: Hai Lan home (national brand, mode innovation, excellent management, 100 billion market capitalization potential) and Semir clothing (stable performance, two child benefit policy, steady layout of the two major ecological circles of children's industry and fashion industry).

(2) light asset service providers will be driven by expansion or extension in the future: Xinmin Technology (light asset service provider, one-stop supply chain service park mode) and business win global (overseas resources rich, global premium apparel brand team, cross border electricity supplier).

(3) the market value elasticity is large, or there are extension expectations: Dayang creation (600233, stock bar) (600233.SH, big market value flexibility, ESOP provides high margin of safety) and seven wolves (002029, stock bar) (002029.SZ), performance bottom up, asset impairment loss consolidation, and extension acquisition is worth looking forward to.

(4) cotton textile industry chain: Lu Tai A (000726.SZ, textile manufacturing industry leader, looking forward to gradual release of production capacity and flexible customization business) and Huafu color spinning (002042, stock bar) (002042.SZ), Baron East (601339, stock bar) (601339.SH, one of the duopoly of color spinning industry, Vietnam's capacity gradually release is expected to benefit TPP).