He Wannan Believes That The A Stock Market Can Be Structured.

Market making has almost become the rule of the A share market in the past more than 20 years.

The market is of course structural market, but not the general retail can capture and capture.

The international and domestic economic situation is not good enough, then there will be a cold spring waiting.

Similar to the weather in Shanghai this year, the second year of February 9th (the year February 9th) officially entered the gate of spring, thus creating a record of "the earliest Spring Festival" in 143 years since the beginning of the year. But after the Spring Festival, there have been two waves of spring cold. The first wave is Valentine's day and the other is five days from February 19th. The lowest temperature will be below 5 degrees.

Similarly, when the year of monkey market opened, A shares fell back on the global stock market crash during the Spring Festival holiday, even gaining three lines and gaining 3.5% in the first week of the year.

However, next fear that there is still a cold spring waiting.

Judging from the market performance, since the Shanghai Stock Index minimum 2638 points in January 27th this year, so far, excluding new shares, especially the landscape culture, because of the reduction of shareholders' violation, the number is huge and the circumstances are serious. It was publicly condemned by the Shanghai Stock Exchange. In the recent 2015, the company's litigation continued and shares were frozen.

The company fell into the vortex of real control and other problems.

Bull market performance and bear market making has almost become the rule of A share market in the past more than 20 years.

Of course, there are structural markets in the market, but not ordinary retail investors can capture and capture.

Fundamentally speaking, the international and domestic economic situation is not good at macro level.

Internationally, the Fed finally announced interest rates in December 16th last 10 years. The world almost agreed that the United States has entered the cycle of raising interest rates since then.

More Than This,

The policy is also being evaluated on negative interest rates.

At home, the most representative two big data: first, as the leading indicator, the manufacturing industry PMI is 49.4%, not only below 7 consecutive months, but also the lowest level since August 2012, especially the raw material inventory index is 46.8%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month.

Two is announced by the central bank.

The number of new loans increased to 2 trillion and 510 billion yuan in the month, M2 increased by 14%, the scale of social financing was 3 trillion and 420 billion yuan, and the money supply was much higher than expected.

You know, loans increased by 11 trillion and 720 billion yuan last year, and now they increase by 2 trillion and 510 billion a month. 1 at the end of the month, the balance of generalized money (M2) is 141 trillion and 630 billion, which is 2.09 times the total GDP of last year. In 2009, the M2 balance (60 trillion and 600 billion) was only 1.8 times that of the total amount of GDP (33 trillion and 540 billion) in the year of 4 trillion and M2.

As I just said, "there will be no large-scale stimulus to support the economy".

We have just said that in 2016, we will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy.

Today, "moderately flexible" quickly turns to "extremely loose".

So.

Will the A share market be as small as the "4 trillion" in 2009?

First, in the 4 trillion years before 2008, the ratio of M2 (47 trillion and 500 billion) and GDP (30 trillion and 70 billion) was only 158%, and 7 years later, our GDP only turned over 1 times. But M2 has progresses by leaps and bounds, and has increased by 2 times. If we continue to "flood irrigation", it will be overrun.

Two, the fixed assets investment was only 13-14 trillion at that time, and the infrastructure in many parts of the country was quite backward. Now, the investment in fixed assets has reached 55 trillion.

Statistics show that in 2009, the profit of listed companies increased by 26%; and in 2015, about 250 companies that had disclosed annual reports and performance bulletins, after excluding brokerage stocks (because of knowing the reasons for last year, the broker business performance increased 1.4 times), the profit growth was -7.29%.