"Nine Rally" Is Coming. Can Pure Polyester Yarn Reappear In Previous Years?

Trade negotiations have changed frequently, and the market of pure polyester yarn has been bumpy. In accordance with past practice, along with the arrival of the traditional textile peak season, the winter fabric procurement season began, but compared with the popular market of pure polyester yarn in the past years, this year's field is rather cold. Can "nine rebound" reverse the decadent situation of the textile industry in the first half of the year? Or will it face greater challenges in the future?

From the supply and demand side, pure polyester price trend has recently stabilized the market price of pure polyester yarn. Downstream demand continues to be sluggish, pure polyester yarn enterprises have a new one less than the same period in previous years, the current shipment mainly by the delivery of pre-sale orders. Under the support of pre sale and a small amount of demand for replenishment orders, the pure polyester yarn social inventory kept low, but the industry still worries about the market outlook. In the short term or with a stable price view, the market does not exclude the existence of some yarn enterprises in order to ease the pressure on capital and make profits and sell goods at a low price. At the close, Fujian's ring spinning T32S containing tax mainstream talks concentrated at 11600-11700, slightly higher than 11800, and the T21S main tax ex factory price in Xiaoshao district was concentrated at 11200-11300. In Jinzhou, no tax negotiation was concentrated in about 10800, pricing in terms of quality, eddy spinning in Zhejiang region, with 13200-13400 of the mainstream tax negotiations, and 13400-13600 in Jiangsu. (unit: yuan / ton)

The weak demand environment and overlay news superimpose the atmosphere of the market and aggravate the worries of the industry in the market. According to the statistics, according to the cost accounting, the pure polyester yarn has been on the cost line for nearly 30 days since the end of July. This week Changle T32S disk processing fee was 4448.75, a decrease of 218 from last month, narrowed by 4.68% compared with last month, narrowing 0.4% compared with the same period last year. At present, some enterprises are affected by the lack of work, environmental impact assessment and safety supervision, which will aggravate the pressure on pure polyester yarn with poor profits. (unit: yuan / ton)

Market forecast for next month:

From the macro perspective,

On the one hand, the perturbed risk of the trade consultation issue's repetition, long-term and severe will bring about the disturbance risk to the raw material market and the terminal market; on the other hand, the offshore RMB exchange rate will depreciate sharply to the US dollar, which will benefit the exporters to obtain the exchange earnings; meanwhile, the price of imported raw materials will also rise, and the exchange rate is too high, that is, the greater the risk will be, which will have a certain impact on the quotation of the textile industry, and the good will also be passivated.

PTA unit constant force 2 million 200 thousand maintenance plan has not yet been implemented, and Xin Feng Ming plans to put into operation in September 220 new devices, and 5 million 800 thousand tons of production capacity since the fourth quarter of 2018 has not been overhauled maintenance plan, the subsequent delay is not much probability, coupled with high polyester construction also has a certain support for the market, it is expected that PTA prices will continue to fall. Polyester staple fiber cash flow is relatively low, if there is not much adjustment of raw material terminal, it is expected that the market will continue to float down very limited space, and does not rule out the market concentration after replenishment of a wave of small rise again. There is still much uncertainty in the market. Operators still need to be cautious about the market. It is estimated that the conventional 1.56*38mm price in the East China market will fluctuate between 7000-7400 yuan / ton next week.

From the terminal market:

From the raw material market,

Recently, orders for large circular machines in Zhejiang and Guangdong have been improved, and the orders for enterprises are mostly wholesale domestic orders. At present, the turnaround rate of large circular machines has risen to 60%. However, there is widespread concern that the duration of such orders is limited, and some are expected to last until mid autumn festival.

In conclusion, pure polyester yarn weighs much more at cost end and the demand is not as good as expected. The demand transition phenomenon in the traditional peak season has not yet appeared. The new single replenishment is mostly for continuous customers, just need to replenish the goods, and the downstream has not yet made substantial progress. The pure polyester yarn will gradually face the risk of storehouse. Under the pressure of shipment, there is downside risk in the market price. Considering the current profit of pure polyester yarn is not good, the pure polyester yarn market is expected to be discussed or between 11500-12000. At the same time, the global economy, the complexity of the trade environment and the existence of risk factors aggravated the industry's worries. In 2019, competition in the second half of the year will be held. The textile industry will usher in a crucial period of cold winter. The yarn enterprises should rationally control the inventory and self-discipline in the industry to ensure the healthy operation of the capital chain. Even if the winter continues, the temperature is still decreasing, and it will always get through the warmer day.