Six Major Impacts Of The Epidemic On Real Estate

Zhong Wei, Professor of Beijing Normal University

General secretary Xi Jinping recently pointed out that the new crown pneumonia epidemic is the largest and most widespread public health emergency in China since the founding of new China. For us, this is a crisis and a major test. After painstaking efforts, the situation of positive prevention and control of epidemic situation is expanding.

The impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the real estate market is a cause for concern. At present, more than 20 provinces and cities have issued a number of policies related to the real estate sector, including the relaxation of land leasing fees and tax payment time limits for real estate enterprises. At the same time, with the advance of scientific prevention and control and orderly resumption of production in some areas, housing construction is also proceeding in an orderly way under the premise of ensuring the prevention and control. This will help promote stable and healthy economic development.

Undoubtedly, real estate has been affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic. But unlike the manufacturing sector and other tradable sectors, real estate is a typical domestic demand driven non tradable sector, so the impact is relatively small. In general, after the outbreak, the real estate 2020 will be warm but not enthusiastic. The company structure of the real estate head enterprises may accelerate the formation of the modules of sales, self-sustaining, property management, investment and technology.

The impact of the epidemic on the real estate industry is mainly discussed in the following six aspects.

One possibility is that there is no real change in housing policy. It is still the main keynote to stay in the house without fire and long-term mechanism. However, in the context of keeping the existing policy framework unchanged, the policy of landing the property market will be neutral in order to maintain the demand for economic growth and expand the consumption of physical goods. Considering that the majority of the new crown pneumonia cases are elderly, and the lack of reliable medical treatment, fire passage and facilities in the old urban areas, the transformation of the core areas of the metropolis may be accelerated.

The two possibility is that the property market in the year 2020 is warmer because of the asymmetry between supply and demand. After the epidemic subsided, people's demand for housing will remain normal. But many factors inhibit supply, although the winter and Spring Festival are traditionally construction off-season, but environmental protection requirements, finished product requirements to superimpose the delay brought by the epidemic, inevitably bring about the reduction of housing delivery and sales volume. Generally speaking, the market demand is relatively warm when the normal demand is faced with relatively shrunken supply. However, the sales volume in 2020 will be slightly different from that in 2018 and 2019. The soaring housing prices after SARS, rather than SARS, is a policy of land bidding and auction. After the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia, the property market will not be able to replicate the trend after SARS.

The three possibility is the readjustment of regional distribution. After the outbreak, capital and industrial migration will inevitably be unavoidable. Similarly, the important regional market of the future property market will also be more concentrated in cities with relatively good government governance capability, relatively good business environment, and relatively better people's livelihood services such as medical education and pension. There will be limited signs of suburbanization in the 16 cities with a population of more than ten million. The core area has a low ebb complex. At the same time, the concept of the second residence will also be popularized. This has accelerated the built-up area of metropolis, and the two or three line cities along the southeastern coast have received more attention.

Four of possibilities, REITS of commercial property is heating up. The epidemic has not only made commercial property almost stop, but also is a powerful popularization of online consumption and block business. It also challenges the upgrading and upgrading of follow-up business offices and new air systems in public places. Some people may get too frequent social activities. All these have restrained the rate of return of the self financing business, and the convergence of the aggressive finance and sales strategy of the development enterprises may make them more enthusiastic about the REITS of the commercial property, especially the over REITS.

Five of the possibilities are property management and the rise of block businesses. In the epidemic, people have given different comments on property services. The importance of high quality property services in the city has been widely recognized. Travel restrictions also make the commercial importance of the last mile block rise, and the large integrated business is over or slightly cooled. The capital market has fully expressed the favor of the property management enterprises.

Six of possibilities is the opportunity for the development of Kang Yang medical care property. Before community hospitals and family doctors are hard to get widespread recognition, how to pay attention to the health and medical care of the elderly is always a difficult problem. This outbreak highlights the problem of how to get timely medical intervention for people over the age of 50, especially those over the age of 75. It is possible to enhance the recognition of the middle and high income groups who are about to enter the old age and have the willingness to pay.

What will we learn from it and how we think about it? From poliomyelitis to hepatitis A, from SARS to new crowns, Chinese people are faced with severe trials of various public health events. The sun will always rise as usual, but some people have gone away forever, no longer in the sunshine, people should not remember anything.