Good News Of Vaccine: Crude Oil Soared By 8%! Polyester Prices Rise For Three Days!

On the night of May 18, a big news completely detonated the US stock market, and the global market was boiling. The new progress of vaccine brought hope for the end of the epidemic situation. The US stock market closed up by more than 900 points, and once rose nearly 1000 points, or more than 4%, during the day.

Oil prices also rose sharply, driven by the good news. By the end of the day, light crude oil for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $2.39, or 8.12%, to $31.82 a barrel, the highest closing price of the contract since March 13. London Brent crude for July delivery rose $2.31, or 7.11%, to $34.81 a barrel.

Crude oil as the most basic raw material in polyester industry chain, its rise can often lead to the rise of polyester raw material price and polyester production and sales. It is reasonable to say that PTA, ethylene glycol and polyester filament should rise sharply after crude oil rose sharply on the 18th, but this time, it seems that things are not the same as expected.

In terms of price, in the case of crude oil soaring, the price of PTA and ethylene glycol did not fluctuate significantly on the 19th, only the price of polyester filament rose slightly.

　　 On the 20th, polyester filament prices began to stabilize, only a small number of enterprises rose 50-100 yuan / ton.

In terms of production and sales, polyester production and sales began to fall slightly from the previous two days' high.

On May 19, the production and sales of polyester filament Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased significantly. The average production and sales of mainstream large factories were 60% - 80%, and the production and sales of some better factories could reach 200%.

On May 20, the polyester filament Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has slightly improved. The average production and sales of mainstream large factories are 130% - 150%, and the production and sales of some better factories can reach 200%.

　　 The price of crude oil has risen sharply, but the rise of polyester raw materials seems to be a little weak, and the purchasing desire of weaving enterprises seems to be reduced. What is the matter?

The good has been released ahead of time

Crude oil news may 15, 2020 Houston reported that since the first quarter of this year, due to the impact of the epidemic continues to affect the entire industry, the export volume of crude oil at Corpus Christi port, the largest crude oil export center of the United States, has decreased by 35%, and the crude oil export volume is expected to decline further this summer.

Boosted by the good news, crude oil has begun to rise sharply. Before the 18th, crude oil in May has risen by more than 200%. And in the crude oil rally driven by the positive, polyester market has experienced a round of rise before this, part of the good has been released in advance.

　　 Foreign trade is hard to recover in a short time

After investigation, it is found that since May, the order situation of textile market has improved to some extent compared with April. However, from the perspective of order structure, some domestic trade orders are improving, while foreign trade orders are still not improving.

Mr. Wang, a trader, said: "since May, we have received more orders than before, but all of them are mainly internal orders. So far this year, we have not received a few foreign orders. With the attitude of consumption ahead of time in Europe and the United States, even if the work is resumed, the demand for foreign clothing will not rise immediately within one or two months. After all, food and daily necessities are always to be bought, but a piece of clothing can be worn for a long time. "

So, In a short period of time, the demand of textile industry is still dominated by domestic demand and "walking on one leg". It is difficult to change the basic principle of oversupply. In this case, there is no basis for the price of raw materials to continue to rise.

Textile market enters off season

According to the rule of previous years, late May is the tail of the first half of the peak season. After entering June, it is usually time for textile enterprises to accumulate inventory.

Although affected by the epidemic situation this year, the time of the weak and peak season has been greatly affected, but in the process of investigation, it is generally believed that the market will become lighter after the second half of the month compared with the first half. And the past business experience also tells them that the textile market is about to enter the off-season.

It is not easy for textile enterprises to bear the downward pressure of raw material prices in the first half of the year.

The inherent demand has been released,

Weaving enterprises can't afford it

Under the situation that the foreign trade demand has not recovered and the overall market supply exceeds the demand, the weaving enterprises still tend to be cautious in purchasing raw materials.

On the one hand, weaving enterprises taking radical measures to purchase raw materials have already purchased more raw materials than originally planned at the same time of polyester rising since the 15th, And in today's prices of raw materials fluctuate, weaving enterprises as before to buy raw materials for several months at a time is basically impossible. Therefore, this part of the demand has been released in advance.

On the other hand, for some enterprises with more conservative strategies, the change of raw material prices of several hundred yuan will not change the way they buy and use, Because from the experience of last year to now, on-demand procurement is the least risky, and it is also the most beneficial to the enterprise's capital chain.

No matter which way the enterprise adopts, it is unlikely to purchase polyester raw materials in a large amount in the short term.

Zhang Hongwen: the fastest vaccine

Come out from March to June next year

The rise in oil prices is directly due to the smooth development of vaccines, and there have been phased achievements.

In the previous interview, Zhang Wenhong, leader of the Shanghai Xinguan pneumonia treatment expert group and director of the infection department of Huashan Hospital, said that the vaccine would come out from March to June next year at the earliest.

Therefore, the success of vaccine research is a long-term positive factor. In the long run, it will be conducive to the resumption of production and economic recovery in European and American countries; But if this news can solve the urgent need of the outbreak of the epidemic, it is still too much to rely on vaccines to restore foreign trade demand in a short time.