Shanghai Index Hit The Biggest One-Day Decline In Seven Months, Led By Liquor And New Energy, Will "Baotuan" Collapse?

Increase of stamp duty on Hong Kong shares

After 28 years, Hong Kong shares raised the stamp duty for the first time. On February 24, the Hong Kong SAR government decided to introduce a bill to increase the stamp duty rate of shares to 0.13%. Affected by this news, the Hong Kong stock market fell sharply on that day, and a shares were also affected. A net outflow of HK $19.96 billion from the South was the first net outflow so far this year. At a time when the HKEx's revenue reached a record high in 2020, the move was unexpected, with mixed reactions from the industry. However, most of the views are that the Hong Kong SAR government should have taken into account the issue of market affordability and market competitiveness when adjusting the stamp duty increase.

"Baotuan" stocks continued to deep callback.

On February 24, the three major indexes weakened throughout the day, and the market turnover exceeded one trillion yuan. However, the Shanghai index fell 1.99%, the largest one-day drop in seven months, closing at 3564 points; the Shenzhen composite index fell 2.44% to close at 14870 points; the gem index fell 3.37% to close at 3007 points, losing 3000 points in the session. The total net outflow of Beishang capital was 673 million yuan.

Among them, the concept of liquor led the decline, the CSI liquor index fell by 6.03%, Luzhou Laojiao fell to the limit, and Shanxi Fenjiu also fell to the limit in the last half hour before closing, and finally fell by 6.84%, Wuliangye by 6.96% and Guizhou Maotai by 5.11%.

The previous night, the loyal "fan" of Baijiu, e fund managed by Zhang Kun, the first brother of public offering, suspended the subscription and announced a dividend of 9 yuan per 10 shares, which further exacerbated the market's panic over liquor stocks.

In addition, Hong Kong, a river apart, suddenly announced an increase in the stamp duty on shares, which not only caused a sharp drop in the Hang Seng Index, but also further affected the A-share market.

On the morning of the 24th, the financial secretary of Hong Kong, Mr. Chen maobo, mentioned in his budget that in order to increase government revenue, the tax rate of stamp duty on shares was to be increased from 0.1% of the transaction amount paid by both parties to 0.13%.

As soon as the news came out, not only did the stock price of the Hong Kong stock exchange record the largest one-day decline since 2015, but also scared off the net purchase of southbound funds for 39 consecutive trading days since December 18, 2020. On that day, the net inflow of southbound funds turned to net outflow from net inflow. As of the closing, the net outflow of southbound funds exceeded 12.9 billion yuan, and the actual net sales reached nearly 20 billion yuan, both reaching a record high.

The Shanghai index fell 1.99%, its biggest one-day decline in seven months to close at 3564 points. Photo by Zheng dikun

At the beginning of the year, there have been signs of loosening of the group

Specifically, in terms of the whole A-share market, 2061 companies rose and 1935 companies fell. Liquor, medical and new energy sectors, which have gained a lot since 2020, have continued to pull back. The Mao index, which represents the "leading stock collection" of a shares, has fallen by 3.85%.

Among other "Baotuan" stocks except liquor, Ningde times fell by 7.85%, BYD by 7.12%, Longji shares by 6.53%, China Insurance by 5.45% and Jinlongyu by 5.91%.

"Overall, the style of A-share market has changed during this period. Before the Spring Festival, Baima stocks with good performance rose, while cyclical stocks benefited from the surge in international commodity prices showed strong performance after the Spring Festival. Some undervalued blue chips, such as banks, rebounded, and there was a certain rotation between plates. Judging from the trend of Shanghai stock index, there has been a continuous adjustment. The rotation between plates also shows that there is no plate that only rises but does not fall, and there is no plate that only falls but does not rise. " Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said.

In Yang Delong's view, due to the excessive increase in consumption of Baima stocks before the Spring Festival, especially liquor, many stocks have risen several times in the past few years, accumulating a large number of profit margins. Although the profitability is strong, but still under the pressure of profit taking.

From the perspective of capital flow, flush showed that on the 24th, the net outflow of capital from the market was as high as 91.519 billion yuan, and the net outflow of the main capital of nonferrous smelting and processing, electrical equipment and beverage manufacturing reached 9.110 billion yuan, 8.3 billion yuan and 5.970 billion yuan respectively.

On the same day, Beishang capital also sold off leading enterprises. Ningde times, iFLYTEK, Sany Heavy Industry, Luzhou Laojiao and Longji shares respectively suffered net sales of 712 million yuan, 252 million yuan, 247 million yuan, 238 million yuan and 117 million yuan respectively.

It is worth mentioning that this "group" loosening phenomenon has already had symptoms since the beginning of the year. According to the statistics of 135 leading stocks with a market value of more than 100 billion yuan, the 21st century economic report found that since 2021, 52 stocks have a turnover rate of more than 50%. Among them, the most volatile one, the turnover rate was 452.60%, and since this year, it has dropped by 13.59%.

In addition, the turnover rate of head technology stocks such as BYD, BOE A and SMIC international also exceeded 40%, and the turnover rate of "group" stocks of Ningde times, Zhifei biology, Longji shares and Tongwei shares was more than 50%.

"After constant valuation in 2020, the valuation of many leading enterprises has been very high. In fact, not only this year, according to our observation, since the fourth quarter of last year, many public funds have begun to reduce their holdings." A partner of a private equity firm in Guangzhou was interviewed.

"We observed the spread of the 10-year Treasury bond between China and the United States, and found that there was a positive correlation between the spread and the valuation of foreign-owned stocks in the long run. In January, we noticed that the spread of 10-year Treasury bonds between China and the United States has gradually narrowed, but the valuation of these" Baotuan "stocks is still rising. Therefore, we concluded at that time that the continuous rise of" Baotuan "stocks will not last for a long time." Xuanyuan investment director Yang Xia said.

It further added: "during the Spring Festival, the fundamentals did not change too much, but the stock price obviously fell back. For example, the dynamic sales of liquor in the first quarter had a very good data. There was no problem with the EPS of these subject matters. The main problem was that the valuation was high, and there were problems in the matching degree of performance and valuation and cost performance."

Switch between large and small disks?

It is worth mentioning that, with the loosening of the phenomenon of conglomeration, the market is constantly worried about the switching of large and small plates and the collapse of the group.

However, many institutional figures do not agree with the disintegration of the "huddle" phenomenon, preferring to think that the huddle plate has changed. The 21st century economic reporter noted that on February 24, despite the unilateral decline of the three major indexes, the stock prices of more than 2000 enterprises in the whole market still rose, and funds began to shift to the sectors with undervalued values and expectations of recovery.

Huang Yanming, director of Guotai Junan Research Institute, pointed out that "Baotuan" will become the norm, but the old "Baotuan" stocks are gradually fading out of view. In the future, we need to pay attention to the new "Baotuan" stocks, focusing on the cycle. It is suggested that investors should grasp the investment rotation rhythm of consumption, cycle and equipment after the epidemic.

Chunshi capital business partner and head of the securities investment department Yang Ruyi also pointed out: "although the organization group appears loose, it will not easily disintegrate. The rotation between the plates will be intensified, and the group will continue. The plate of the group will inevitably change, but it will still focus on the high-quality leading companies in the industry with stronger profit certainty."

In Yang Ruyi's opinion, at present, whether the economic recovery or the policy "from leniency to stability", the domestic process is ahead of overseas, and the boost of overseas recovery and loose trading on a shares is relatively limited. "In the next stage, the market risk preference may be restricted by the tightening expectation of capital, but A-share economic growth still has relative advantages, and varieties with high prospect and strong performance certainty are expected to remain Stay optimistic. "

The relevant person in charge of Starstone investment also said, "we maintain the judgment of the annual strategy, and A-share will change from valuation driven to profit driven in 2021. Under the background of strong domestic economic recovery, unchanged profit growth trend and rising inflation expectation, those companies with reasonable valuation and outstanding performance growth momentum are more worthy of embracing. In the future, we will focus on the cyclical industries that benefit from the economic recovery and the consumption and services of the previously trapped epidemic