The Loss Of 210 Billion Yuan Of Public Funds In The First Quarter Triggered Redemption: Who Is Voting With His Feet And Who Is Going Against The Trend?

In the first quarter of 2021, public funds have a huge loss of 210 billion yuan.

It is equity funds that have brought down the overall performance.

According to the statistics of the 21st century economic report, 56% of the fund scale shrank in the first quarter, but 44% of the fund scale increased.

On the whole, there is obvious differentiation: some public funds are favored by investors, and their scale has soared; Other funds, however, have seen large-scale capital flight, and the scale has plummeted.

Why are some funds recognized by investors in the first quarter? Some of them are afraid of investors like tigers?

Top 10 in scale

Wind data shows that in the first quarter, 5213 funds (with different shares) increased in size, accounting for 44% of the total.

Among them, the top 10 (excluding monetary funds, the same below) were: CAITONG asset management Hongfu short-term debt (Li Jie, Zou Zhou) of 25.140 billion yuan, Fuguo two-year financial management (Yu Xiaobin) of 20.712 billion yuan, e-fonda blue chip selection (Zhang Kun) of 20.315 billion yuan, China Europe medical and health (Ge Lan) of 16.743 billion yuan, e-fonda Yufeng return (Zhang Qinghua, Zhang Yajun) of 11.717 billion yuan Qianhai open source Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen advantage selection a (Quyang, Fan Jie) of 11.303 billion yuan, e-fonda mid market growth (Fengbo) of 10.728 billion yuan, Guangfa high-end manufacturing (sundi, Zheng chengran) of 10.630 billion yuan, Jingshun Great Wall emerging growth (Liu Yanchun) of 10.35 billion yuan, e-fonda Yuxiang return (Zhang Qinghua, Lin Sen) of 10.145 billion yuan.

Although the overall performance of equity funds in the first quarter was not very good, there were still 6 active equity funds in the top 10 with a sharp increase in scale.

In addition, there are four bond funds, and two of them belong to "fixed income +" funds.

The funds managed by star fund managers are the most popular. For example, Zhang Kun's e fund blue chip collection increased by 20.3 billion yuan in the first quarter, making it the largest growth fund among active equity funds.

At the end of the fourth quarter of 2020, the scale of funds managed by Zhang Kun was the first to break through the 100 billion mark, reaching 125.507 billion yuan by the end of 2020; By the end of the first quarter of 2021, the scale of funds managed by Zhang Kun will increase to 133.109 billion yuan.

Among them, the largest contribution to the scale of Zhang Kun's management fund is e fund blue chip selection, which is the largest equity fund in the market at present.

As of the end of the first quarter, e fund's blue chip selection scale was 88.016 billion yuan, and its share rose to 30.933 billion copies, respectively increasing by 20.315 billion yuan and 7.312 billion copies compared with the end of 2020.

E fund blue chip is one of the most famous funds in the market. It was established in September 2018, with 197.22% income and 50.73% annualized income since its establishment. The income in 2020 is 95.09%, and that in 2019 is 55.12%.

However, it is worth mentioning that the revenue of e fund's blue chip selection is not ideal since this year. By the end of the first quarter, this year's earnings were - 0.73%.

But even when the performance is not good, there are still a lot of funds rush into the big withdrawal to apply for e fund blue chip selection. This is the scale of e fund blue chip selection in this year's three consecutive purchase restrictions.

On January 7, e fund announced that since January 8, 2021, the accumulated large amount of subscription amount of single fund account in single day of blue chip selection of e fund was adjusted from the original 1 million yuan to 100000 yuan; Since January 28, the upper limit of e fund's blue chip selection subscription quota has been adjusted from 100000 yuan to 5000 yuan; Since February 18, e fund's blue chip selection subscription amount has dropped again to no more than 2000 yuan.

However, as a top-notch fund manager, Zhang Kun is well-known. Under the purchase restriction, the management scale of the first quarter hit a new record. Among them, e fund blue chip selection also set a new record of active equity fund with 88 billion yuan.

In addition to Zhang Kun, the scale of the first quarter soared, and almost all of the top 10 equity funds came from star fund managers.

Including: another top 100 billion fund manager Liu Yanchun managed Jingshun Great Wall emerging growth of 10.35 billion yuan, and China EU medical and health management by Ge Lan, the queen of medicine, soared by 16.743 billion yuan; A new one-day fund was set up to subscribe to the 240 billion historical record of e-fund managed by Feng Bo. The growth of e-fund in the middle market rose by 10.728 billion yuan; In 2020, the high-end manufacturing of Guangfa, managed by sun Di and Zheng chengran, whose fund income doubled, soared by 10.63 billion yuan; Star fund manager Qu Yang managed Qianhai Kaiyuan, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen advantage selection soared by 11.303 billion yuan.

These funds lead the way in historical performance.

For example, as of the end of April, their returns in the past five years were 357% and 349% respectively, ranking the top 10 among tens of thousands of funds in the whole market.

In the past three years, the returns of China Europe medical health Co., Ltd., which was established less than five years ago and has achieved three years' performance, and Guangfa high-end manufacturing managed by sundi and Zheng chengran, respectively, achieved 175% and 191% returns in recent three years.

In 2020, the income of the six active equity funds will be between 79% and 134%.

However, the performance of these funds in the first quarter of this year showed a relatively large withdrawal, performance differentiation, most of the returns were negative: e fund blue chip selection - 0.73%, China Europe medical health a-1.26%, Qianhai Kaiyuan Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen advantage selection a3.76%, e-fund medium market growth - 0.54%, GF high-end manufacturing a7.35%, Jingshun Great Wall emerging growth - 4.54%.

Among them, Jingshun Great Wall's emerging growth was the largest drop, with the first quarter income of - 4.54%; However, there are also very good performance, such as Guangfa high-end manufacturing a, with revenue as high as 7.35%, Qianhai Kaiyuan, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen advantage selection a, with revenue of 3.76%. Most of the other equity funds with more growth recorded a slight decline.

"We have made statistics on the purchase and redemption of funds in the first quarter of this year, and found that the funds with more capital inflow are mainly those with high market recognition and excellent long-term performance, and have a large callback this year." Wang Yi, a research fellow of GESHANG's Jinzhang investment, said.

"It is not difficult to find that the changes in the size of funds come from the recognition of funds to funds and the expected grasp of funds to funds," Wang said. When investors have a high degree of recognition of the fund and can reasonably expect the future performance of the fund, they will be able to cope with short-term fluctuations more mature and dare to reverse the layout. "

As for the change of fund scale, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, further said, "the change of fund scale in the first quarter is relatively large, which is related to market fluctuation. In the first quarter, the whole stock market fell, making the net value of funds fluctuate greatly. If the net value drops sharply, they may encounter the redemption of funds. While some funds are more resistant to the decline, or even rise against the trend, attracting the inflow of some funds. The differentiation of fund scale is still related to the performance of fund net value, Another reason is that it has something to do with the investment ability of the fund manager. "

In addition to equity funds, bond funds are also relatively easy to obtain large-scale capital inflow under the large correction of the A-share market. There are four bond funds in the top 10. Among them, the scale of CAITONG asset management Hongfu short-term debt with the largest growth in the first quarter in the first quarter was 4.58 billion yuan at the end of last year, and 29.72 billion yuan at the end of the first quarter of 2021, with an increase of 25.14 billion yuan in a quarter and a daily net increase of 280 million yuan.

In fact, short-term bond funds are equivalent to substitutes for monetary funds. When the stock market is in turmoil, a lot of funds will flow into monetary funds and short-term debt funds to wait for investment opportunities. And a large number of monetary funds in the first quarter of this year have also seen a substantial growth. Recently, many fund companies have launched short-term bond funds in order to adapt to the volatile market.

The second largest increase in the size of funds in the market in the first quarter was Wells Fargo's two-year financial management of 20.712 billion, which has a two-year lock-in period. By the end of 2020, the institutional holders of the fund accounted for nearly 100%, belonging to institutional funds.

The other two top 10 base metal "fixed income +" funds with scale growth in the first quarter are e fund Yufeng return and e fund Yuxiang return managed by Zhang Qinghua, with scale growth of more than 10 billion yuan in the first quarter.

Zhang Qinghua can be called "fixed income +" first brother, whose management scale is more than 100 billion yuan, and is the top fund boss with absolute income. No matter bear market, bull market can achieve good returns, more respected by institutions. The past two years have witnessed the great development of "fixed income plus". In addition to the reputation of Zhang Qinghua, there is also the help of "Tianshi".

Scale plummeted to top 10

The first quarter is a honeymoon for some funds and a hard time for others.

According to wind data, 6587 funds fell in the first quarter, accounting for 56% of the total.

The top 10 (except monetary funds) with the largest fund size shrinking in the first quarter were: Shanghai Stock Exchange 50etf-12.292 billion yuan, huitianfu's open vision advantage in China - 8.916 billion yuan, CCB Hengyuan fixed opening - 8.796 billion yuan a year, CCB Hengrui - 8.666 billion yuan, e-fund medium and small cap - 8.646 billion yuan, CCB Heng'an fixed opening - 8.572 billion yuan, huitianfu steady income - 8.520 billion yuan, respectively Guangfa robust optimization held a-8.2 billion yuan in six months, Penghua ingenuity selection of - 8.052 billion yuan, Boshi Yukun pure debt of 3 months - 7.696 billion yuan.

Among them, equity funds account for 5, bond funds and partial bond hybrid funds account for 5.

The performance of the five equity funds in the first quarter was relatively poor, with all negative returns: Shanghai Stock Exchange 50etf-2.97%, huitianfu's open Vision China advantage a-6.05%, e-fund's medium and small cap - 4.74%, gf's stable optimization holding a-7.32% for six months, and Penghua's carefully selected a-5.94%.

No doubt, the first quarter of this year's performance is not ideal, net worth fell more, is part of the equity fund scale plummet and the main reason for large-scale redemption.

"The funds with more capital outflow are mainly new products established in July and August when the market was very hot last year. At that time, the market was just at the high point of short-term heat, and investors had high subscription sentiment and high expectation of future earnings. Since the beginning of this year, the market has fluctuated widely, and most funds have experienced a large withdrawal from the high point. Therefore, these short-term high admission funds are difficult to continue to hold when encountering market fluctuations, so they choose to redeem quickly. " Wang Yi explained.

In addition, there are also funds to reduce the size of the initiative in the first quarter.

For example, Zhang Kun's e-fund's small and medium-sized stocks shrank by 8.6 billion yuan in the first quarter, and Zhang Kun's e-fund's small and medium-sized funds suspended subscription and large proportion of dividends in the first quarter.

On February 23, e fund's official website announced that, from February 24, 2021, e fund's medium and small cap hybrid fund's subscription, transfer in and regular fixed investment business in non direct selling institutions and online direct selling system of the company will be suspended.

The small and medium Cap Fund of e fund is to tighten the application step by step. As early as February 22, the amount of single fund account subscription and transfer in is limited to 1000 yuan. And the previous subscription limit was 2000 yuan.

In addition, the small and medium-sized e-fund will pay a dividend of 9 yuan for every 10 fund units. The equity registration date is February 25, and the cash dividend payment date is February 26. That is, the dividend fund reaches 10%. This is e fund medium and small cap funds to actively reduce the scale.

According to the industry's interpretation of these operations, fund managers predict the risks. However, e-fund's small and medium-sized plates are too large. There will be more than 40 billion at the end of 2020. Retail investors are still buying crazily in the first quarter. Fund managers stop buying and reduce the scale to reduce investors' short-term losses.

It is worth mentioning that the fund with the largest amount of redemption in the market in the first quarter is Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF, which is an index fund. When the funds fall sharply, the broad base such as Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 is the most redeemed fund.

In addition to equity funds, there were 4 bond funds and 1 partial bond hybrid fund among the top 10 in the first quarter.

Three of them are bond funds of CCB fund, all of which are fixed in one year and invested by 100% institutions. The annual return of 2020 is between 1% and 3% and that of 2019 is between 3% and 4%. Especially in the bull year of funds in 2019-2020, the performance is relatively general, not too attractive, and institutional customized funds are greatly affected by institutional redemption.

It is worth mentioning that huitianfu stable income fund, a "fixed income +" fund, whose income in the first quarter of this year was - 0.90%, and its scale decreased by 8.5 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year to become a "fixed income -" fund.

Generally speaking, the law of fund flow in the first quarter is linked with the performance and fund managers. In addition, bond funds are also affected by more institutional investment.

For the next investment, Wang Yi suggested: "we judge that the market will continue to fluctuate in 2021, and the investment will be more difficult. We suggest that on the one hand, investors should reduce the short-term income expectations, use long-term investment to deal with short-term fluctuations, and on the other hand, they should not blindly pursue higher investment, and make investment decisions based on in-depth research and recognition of funds, adhere to research-driven and select high-quality funds."