China Textile Federation Holds Video Conference On Economic Operation Analysis In The First Half Of 2021

On August 25, China Textile Industry Federation held a video conference on economic operation analysis in the first half of 2021 in Beijing. The meeting analyzed the economic operation of the textile industry in the first half of 2021, as well as the new trends and characteristics of the economic operation of the main sub industries, studied and judged the operation trend in the second half of 2021, so as to provide information and reference for the work of various industries. The meeting has one main venue and 22 sub venues.

Gao Yong, party secretary and Secretary General of China Textile Federation; sun Ruizhe, President; Chen Weikang, deputy secretary of the Party committee; Wang Jiuxin, Secretary of the Discipline Inspection Commission; Xu Yingxin, Chen Dapeng, Duan Xiaoping, Yang Zhaohua, sun Huaibin, vice presidents; members of leading groups of departments and member units, More than 300 people participated in the meeting, including heads of departments and staff of professional associations responsible for the analysis of industrial economic operation.

The meeting was presided over by sun Huaibin, vice president of China Textile Federation.

Chen Xiaoqian and Niu Shuangxin, analysts of China Textile Industry Economic Research Institute, respectively introduced the economic operation of the textile industry in the first half of 2021 and the forecast of the operation trend in the second half of 2021.

Chen Xiaoqian comprehensively introduced and deeply analyzed the operation situation and some new features of the whole textile industry from five aspects of industry production, domestic market, international market, fixed investment and operation quality and efficiency.

In the first half of 2021, economic development is facing a complex external environment: the global epidemic situation continues to evolve, the decline of global logistics efficiency leads to the rise of logistics costs, and the rise of commodity prices leads to the rise of cotton, oil and other raw materials prices in the upstream of textile industry, In addition, Global trade friction, inflation and the short-term impact of extreme weather have a certain impact on economic development. Although the external environment is complex, the overall operation of the national economy still shows strong resilience.

In the first half of 2021, the production of textile industry is generally in the recovery stage: the growth rate of industrial added value of textile industry is 9.6%, but the average growth rate of two years is 1.1%, which is lower than that of the same period in 2019. Therefore, it is judged that the industrial production is still in the recovery stage. Among them, the recovery degree of various industries shows a trend of differentiation: the average growth rate of chemical fiber industry, knitting industry and clothing industry in two years is lower than that in the same period of 2019, and the industries are in the recovery stage; The average growth rate of cotton textile industry and home textile industry in two years is higher than that in the same period of 2019, and the industry has recovered and exceeded the level before the epidemic.

In the first half of 2021, domestic consumption recovered and maintained a good growth: from January to July, the sales volume of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles reached 767.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%, which was 9.2 percentage points higher than the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods. The average growth rate in two years is 3.5%, higher than that in the same period of 2019 (3.0%). Based on this, the domestic consumer market has recovered in the first half of this year. What is worth noting is that the consumer market presents the following characteristics: active sales through online channels, frequent occurrence of occasional and strategic explosive products, obvious consumer demand, and better consumption experience brought by live e-commerce.

In the first half of 2021, China's textile and clothing exports maintained growth: the total export of 168.35 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, 2.2 percentage points higher than the same period of last year, with an average growth rate of 6.7% in two years. From January to July, China's textile exports reached US $80.25 billion, down 10.8% year-on-year; Clothing exports reached 88.1 billion US dollars, up 32.9% year on year. In view of the export situation of epidemic prevention materials, Chen Xiaoqian said: in 2020, due to the demand for epidemic prevention materials, the textile demand in export products will rise sharply, reaching 60.3%; In 2021, with the remarkable achievements in epidemic prevention, textiles accounted for 47.7% and clothing accounted for 52.3% of the export products, which basically adjusted to the pre epidemic structure. Among them, the import of masks from China by the United States, the European Union and Japan decreased significantly. In addition, China's textile and garment market share in the United States, the European Union, Japan's three major international markets also showed a downward trend.

In the first half of 2021, the fixed investment in textile industry increased in different ranges: from January to June, China's textile industry, chemical fiber industry and clothing industry increased by 15.2%, 16.6% and 5.8% respectively. Combined with the average growth rate of two years, the investment in chemical fiber industry is in the recovery stage, and the investment in textile industry and clothing industry needs to be further increased.

In the first half of 2021, the quality and efficiency of the industry are stable, the efficiency is greatly improved, and the overall profit is restored: from January to June, the textile industry achieved a revenue of 234.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%, and an average growth rate of 0.3% in two years, and the industry's business income is still in the recovery stage; The total profit was 107.89 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.1% and an average growth rate of 6.9% in two years. The total profit recovered and exceeded the pre epidemic level; The profit margin of operating revenue was 4.6%, 0.7 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

Niu Shuangxin analyzed and introduced the development environment of the industry in the second half of the year, such as the world economic situation, domestic and foreign consumption, international supply chain and raw material price fluctuation risk. She analyzed the positive factors facing the industry development in the second half of the year, mainly including: the global economic growth is expected to further improve, and the international market demand is expected to continue to warm up; The foundation of China's macroeconomic recovery will continue to consolidate, and domestic demand is expected to stabilize and improve; High quality manufacturing and complete supply chain advantages of textile industry will continue to play. At the same time, the risk factors still exist, such as the spread of "Xinguan" mutant strain, which may have an impact on the recovery of the international market; Local rebound of domestic epidemic situation, extreme weather and other factors increase the production and marketing pressure of enterprises; The price of bulk commodities fluctuated greatly, which increased the risk of purchasing textile raw materials.

In the second half of the year, the macro-economy is expected to continue to recover, the growth rate of demand will gradually return to normal, and the recovery and development trend of the textile industry is expected to continue. With the increase of the base number, the main indicators will show a trend of "high before and low after".

Xu Xiaoyuan, Deputy Secretary General of China Cotton Textile Industry Association, introduced the operation of cotton textile industry. In the first half of this year, the production capacity of cotton textile industry gradually developed to intelligent, automatic and green. The overall production capacity showed a downward trend, but the equipment production efficiency was improved, and the yarn and cloth output was overall stable.

In terms of industry prosperity, from January to June this year, the average value of prosperity index increased by 2.43 year on year. Cotton prices fluctuated significantly, and domestic cotton prices continued to be higher than international cotton prices. Since the number of imported cotton reached a record high in 2020, in the first half of this year, China's cotton imports totaled 1.5466 million tons, an increase of 72.17% year-on-year. Cotton yarn imports totaled 1131700 tons, up 30.88% year on year. Affected by the expansion of internal and external cotton price difference and frequent fluctuations, the turnover rate of reserve cotton reached 100%. The price fluctuation range of viscose staple fiber and polyester staple fiber is relatively large, and the price difference of polyester and cotton reaches 11000 yuan / ton. The equipment utilization rate of cotton textile enterprises has gradually increased, and the equipment utilization rate in July has reached or even exceeded the level in 2019 before the epidemic.

The production of gauze has been increasing, and the sales volume of gauze has changed from negative to positive from this year, with a significant increase. The inventory is at a low level, and the fluctuation range is small on a month on month basis. From January to July this year, the main economic indicators of key cotton textile enterprises and cluster enterprises increased significantly year-on-year, and the loss area continued to narrow. The growth of business income and profit of enterprises was mainly in the domestic market. From January to June, China's textile and clothing exports reached 140.9 billion US dollars, an increase of 12.1% year-on-year. Among them, clothing foreign trade continued to improve, with textile exports of 68.56 billion US dollars, down 7.4% year-on-year, mainly affected by the high export base of epidemic prevention textiles in the same period last year.

At present, facing the complex and severe global economic and trade situation, the continuous overseas epidemic situation has led to the increase of uncertain factors, the domestic market consumption presents personalized and differentiated demand, and the cost increase of front-end products has not been transferred to the consumer price. For the later market trend, it is mainly affected by supply and demand. The current cotton textile market has entered the abyss, cotton and cotton yarn continue to create new highs, the downstream weaving Market is obviously weak to follow up, the market cautious wait-and-see mood is rising. On the whole, in addition to the price and epidemic situation, there are also risks such as extreme weather, safety production and debt. Enterprises need to pay attention to prevent business risks. In the later stage, with the technological progress of cotton textile industry gradually accelerated, the new production capacity of enterprises developed to intelligent and green; With the upgrading of consumer demand and the technological progress of chemical fiber industry, the application of non cotton fiber will continue to grow. In addition, the domestic and foreign environment, national policies, cotton quality and the promotion and application of non cotton fiber are the focus of attention.

Wu Wenjing, Deputy Secretary General of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association and director of information department, analyzed the operation of chemical fiber industry in the first half of 2021 and predicted the trend in the second half of 2021. In the first half of this year, supported by the demand side and the raw material end, the economic operation situation of the chemical fiber industry remained good, and the main operating indicators rebounded rapidly.

In terms of production, the overall operating load of the chemical fiber industry has significantly increased compared with the same period in 2020. Although there is a low base in the same period in 2020, it is still at a high level compared with the same period in recent years.

In terms of output, according to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to June, the output of chemical fiber was 33.37 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 17.12%; Compared with the first half of 2019, the average growth rate in two years is 9.1%.

In terms of import and export, in the first half of the year, 298600 tons of major chemical fiber products were imported, with a year-on-year increase of 18.08% and an average growth rate of - 2.71% in two years. The export volume was 2.5312 million tons, an increase of 42.52% over the same period of last year, with an average growth rate of 7.85% in two years.

In terms of export, the export of polyester filament to India increased by 589% year on year; Pakistan followed, with a year-on-year increase of 116%; Exports to Brazil increased by 80% year on year; Exports to Turkey decreased slightly by 4.8%. The export of spandex to Turkey increased by 161% year on year; Brazil followed, with a year-on-year increase of 143%; Exports to Bangladesh increased by 106% year-on-year (previous exports were small and the base was very low).

In terms of downstream demand, the start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang Jiatan, loom and circular machine is at a high level in the past two years, which has exceeded the level before the epidemic, but the polyester yarn starting rate is slightly weak.

In terms of market price, after the continuous decline in the previous two years, the market has a demand for upward repair. The industry increased significantly in the first quarter, and fluctuated downward in the second quarter. After mid June, driven by the continued upward crude oil and improved demand, the price center of polyester filament moved up.

In terms of quality and efficiency, the overall benefit of the chemical fiber industry increased rapidly in the first half of the year, but decreased significantly in the second quarter compared with the first quarter.

In terms of fixed assets investment, the data of the National Bureau of statistics showed that from January to June, the fixed asset investment in the chemical fiber industry increased by 16.6% year on year, and the investment willingness and investment action of enterprises rebounded. Most of the new capacity is still concentrated in leading enterprises, and its scale advantage has been further consolidated.

To sum up, the profits of the chemical fiber industry in the first half of the year are mainly due to three reasons: first, the effect of structural reform on the supply side; second, inventory surplus has contributed certain profits to the enterprise; third, the development of high-performance fiber has seen achievements.

For the trend of the second half of the year, comprehensive analysis of various factors, it is expected that the operating pressure of the industry will increase in the second half of the year. The traditional peak season of the third quarter is still expected, but we should be cautious and optimistic about the duration and degree of prosperity. The risk of decline in the fourth quarter is relatively high. It is estimated that the annual chemical fiber output, export, economic benefits and other operational indicators will still be significantly better than that in 2020. However, due to the low base in the first half of 2020 and the sustained rapid recovery in the second half of 2020, the growth rate of various indicators of the industry in 2021 will show an obvious trend of high before and low after.

Ding Sijia, deputy director of the industry department of China printing and dyeing industry association, introduced the operation situation of the printing and dyeing industry in the first half of the year, the existing main problems and the research and judgment of the operation trend in the second half of the year.

In the first half of 2021, thanks to the stable situation of epidemic prevention and control in China, the return of foreign orders and the continuous release of domestic and foreign market demand, the production situation of the printing and dyeing industry continued to improve and its development momentum continued to increase. In terms of output, the output of printing and dyeing fabrics of printing and dyeing enterprises above designated scale increased by 25.93% year-on-year, 20.41% higher than that of the same period in 2019. From the main operation quality indicators, compared with the low base of the same period of last year, the production and operation of printing and dyeing enterprises are gradually normalized, but there is still a significant gap between some indicators and before the epidemic, and the foundation for stable improvement of operation quality still needs to be consolidated. In terms of export, the printing and dyeing industry faced a good foreign trade situation in the first half of the year, and the export maintained a rapid growth trend.

At present, printing and dyeing enterprises are mainly faced with difficulties in recruitment, high mobility of workers, shortage of talents and rising costs. Among them, the cost rise is mainly due to the rising prices of fiber raw materials, dye auxiliaries, energy, labor costs, international shipping prices and environmental protection costs.

In terms of operation trend in the second half of the year, the fourth quarter of each year is the traditional peak season of the printing and dyeing industry. It is expected that the orders received by enterprises in the second half of the year will remain stable, especially in the domestic sales. In terms of export, due to the lack of effective control of foreign epidemic situation and the influence of trade friction and other factors, the foreign trade situation is uncertain, and most enterprises hold a neutral attitude towards export orders in the second half of the year. Some enterprises due to product characteristics and other reasons, it is expected that domestic and foreign sales orders will decline in the second half of the year.

Zhang Xicheng, vice president of China Knitting Industry Association, introduced that from January to June 2021, 5777 Enterprises above the designated size in the knitting industry completed the main business income of 293.831 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.76%, slightly higher than that of the textile industry. Among them, the enterprises above the designated size of knitted fabrics increased by 32.49% year-on-year, and the enterprises above the size of knitted garments increased by 17.59% year-on-year. The industry as a whole rebounded and the main business income increased significantly. The total profit of the enterprise was 10.930 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22.80%, 47.69 percentage points higher than that of the same period of last year; The profit margin of the industry is 3.72%, the loss area of knitting industry is narrowing, and the profitability is gradually recovering. Among them, the loss area of knitted clothing enterprises is greater than that of knitted fabrics, which shows that although the amount of losses of knitted clothing enterprises is narrowed, the development pressure is still obvious, and it is difficult for some enterprises to generate income and recover.

In terms of efficiency, in the first half of the year, the total inventory of Enterprises above designated size increased year on year, the total inventory of finished products decreased year on year, and the turnover speed of finished products accelerated, indicating that the connection between production and sales has entered a benign development, and enterprises are optimistic about the market. From January to June, the growth rate of main business income of Enterprises above Designated Size in knitting industry was basically the same as that of main business cost.

The operating cost is high, and the pressure of enterprise operation remains. The cost pressure of knitwear manufacturers is higher than that of knitted fabric manufacturers, which indicates that the upstream raw material prices can not be effectively transmitted, and brand promotion has a long way to go.

According to customs statistics, in the first half of the year, China's exports of knitted fabrics, knitted garments and accessories increased by 55.65% over the same period last year. The export of knitting industry rebounded rapidly, and export enterprises recovered steadily. The top five export regions of the United States, Southeast Asia, the European Union, Japan and Australia accounted for 57.53% of exports; Among them, Southeast Asia is growing rapidly, the United States is relatively stable, and the Japanese market is showing signs of decline; In addition, the UK and the Middle East have development potential. In the domestic market, knitted products, as an important daily consumer goods for domestic residents, have been gradually improved in the domestic market driven by emerging business models such as e-commerce and online live broadcast, and the consumption structure has continued to upgrade.

In the second half of the year, with the improvement of global epidemic prevention and control situation, external production capacity will gradually recover. At the same time, affected by freight, raw material prices, industrial safety and other factors, the export growth of knitting industry in the second half of the year is expected to slow down compared with the first half of the year. In terms of domestic market, due to the repeated impact of weather disasters and epidemic situation, domestic sales in the third quarter will have a certain impact. However, with the effective prevention and control measures of domestic epidemic situation and the stimulation of Shopping Festival near the end of the year, the domestic sales of knitting industry are expected to remain stable in the second half of the year. Although facing many uncertain factors and increasing external pressure, the overall operation of the knitting industry is expected to maintain a stable and positive trend.

Ji Jianbing, Deputy Secretary General of China Industrial Textiles Industry Association and director of industrial research department, reported the main economic data of the industry in the first half of 2021 and prospected the second half of 2021 based on the industry overview in 2020.

In the first half of 2021, the industrial textiles industry is facing huge production pressure, demand decline, productivity profit margin decline, factor cost rise and other issues. In terms of the main economic data, the main performance is the decline of industry prosperity index, the decrease of industrial added value, the differentiation of product output growth trend, the change of finished product price, the obvious callback of economic benefits, the sharp decrease of international trade and mask export.

At present, the industry is facing difficulties and challenges, such as sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, excessive competition in the industry, decline in demand for epidemic prevention materials, difficulties in recruitment and business activities. The impact of epidemic prevention material demand on the industry is reflected in three aspects: production capacity, demand and enterprises.

In terms of production capacity, it is mainly reflected in the large-scale expansion of production capacity, speeding up the pace of industrial innovation, product development and brand building in the field of protective clothing and wiping have promoted the progress of the industry. It is expected that quite a number of uncompetitive production capacity will be withdrawn.

On the demand side, the epidemic has changed the views of the state, professionals and the public on masks, protective clothing and disinfection products, and small products have entered the strategic vision. The market scale of masks, protective clothing and disinfection wipes increased significantly compared with that before the epidemic, and the market was more mature, which changed the industrial pattern of medical textiles.

In terms of enterprises, the enterprises have withstood the test of epidemic situation, accumulated experience in dealing with major public health events, and their economic strength has been significantly enhanced.

For the development of the whole year, most enterprises are cautious. According to the survey conducted by the association, the annual order index of the surveyed enterprises is basically consistent with that of the first half of the year and is in the contraction range. The income index and profit index have slightly increased compared with the first half of the year, but they are still hovering near the prosperity and withering line. The impact of the sharp drop in demand for epidemic prevention materials on the industry will be further revealed in the second half of the year. It is estimated that the fiber processing capacity of the industry will decrease by 5% - 10%; The decline rate of business income and total profit of the industry will be expanded, but it will be higher than the level before the epidemic; The profit level of the industry will return to normal, but it will maintain a high level in the textile industry; The export of masks and protective clothing will drop sharply, and the export of non epidemic prevention materials will rebound significantly.

Liu Jing, senior project director of the industry department of China Garment Association, made a report on the economic operation of China's garment industry in the first half of 2021. In the first half of this year, the overall performance of the clothing industry was as follows: in terms of production, production recovered steadily, and garment output continued to rise. In terms of domestic sales, online sales maintained growth and physical sales improved significantly. In terms of export, demand recovered, orders returned, and clothing exports increased significantly. In terms of investment, investment is more cautious and the recovery rate is slow. In terms of efficiency, the quality and efficiency of the industry has been continuously improved, and the operation pressure is still large.

For the prediction of the development trend of the clothing industry in the second half of the year, Liu Jing analyzed that in the international market, the epidemic situation is still spreading all over the world, and the recovery of the world economy is unstable and unbalanced, which will have an impact on China's clothing export in the second half of the year. In 2021, the pressure on China's clothing export to maintain a stable growth is still greater. In terms of the domestic market, the recovery of Hongxian economy promotes the synchronous growth of residents' income and the continuous improvement of consumer confidence. The rapid progress of network technology and the vigorous rise of new consumption and new retail formats will also inject strong impetus into the sustainable innovation and development of the industry. It is expected that the domestic clothing market will show a good trend of recovery and improvement in 2021.

Under the strong support of the stable recovery of macro-economy and the construction of a new dual cycle development pattern, it is expected that the overall economic operation of China's clothing industry in 2021 will be significantly better than that in 2020, showing a stable recovery and a good development trend. In the first half of the year, the volume of the clothing industry showed a good recovery growth, but in the second half of the year, the development environment faced by China's clothing industry was still grim and complex, with the increasing instability of the international market recovery, the aggravation of the rise in comprehensive costs, and the increasing fluctuation of raw material prices, Taking into account the weakening of the low base factor in the second half of the year, the industry's economic growth will gradually fall back.

Yang Zhaohua, vice president of China Textile Industry Federation and President of China Household Textile Industry Association, pointed out that from January to June this year, the main business income of Enterprises above Designated Size in the whole home textile industry increased by 20%, the profit increased by 3.56%, and the growth rate slowed down. Compared with the same period in 2019, the export of home textile products increased by 19.99% year-on-year, showing a good trend. Among them, the growth rates to the United States, the European Union, Japan, Russia and ASEAN were 53%, 48%, 14%, 58% and 58%, respectively. From the perspective of product categories, exports are mainly the original products. In addition to the attributes and consumer demand of home textile products, it also benefits from China's industrial chain advantages.

As for the market trend in the second half of the year, Yang Zhaohua said that due to the repeated impact of logistics and overseas epidemic situation, the impact of delayed delivery of export goods was aggravated; The domestic market also needs to be cautious and optimistic.

Sun Ruizhe, President of China Textile Industry Federation, summed up the economic operation meeting with "the growth rate has not yet fully recovered, and the industry still needs continuous efforts".

From his analysis, we can see that the textile industry is showing two major characteristics: first, the industry presents a steady and good development trend, which is reflected in the steady improvement of the quality and efficiency of development, the continuous strengthening of its role in internal circulation, the good growth trend of export and the enhancement of investment confidence. Second, the value of the industry is constantly being reexamined by all levels of society, which is reflected in the value reconstruction and responsibility of the industry. In particular, the outbreak of the epidemic has made all sectors of society recognize the value of the textile industry, and actively strive to include the development of the textile industry in the "14th five year plan" key support industries.

At the end of the second quarter of this year, especially after July, the growth rate of industrial production, consumption and fixed asset investment in China slowed down, which may continue in the second half of this year. Next, the industry should make continuous efforts in the following four aspects.

The first is to strengthen the linkage between industrial transformation and upgrading and regional development strategy. At present, China Textile Federation has carried out relevant work in this respect. It has communicated with 71 relevant departments of the country on the development outline of the "14th five year plan" of the textile industry, and put forward suggestions to the relevant departments of 31 provinces and cities to develop the textile industry according to local conditions, and achieved good results.

The second is to promote the upgrading of industrial base and the modernization of industrial chain. We will increase technological breakthroughs in major industries, increase the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, and make more orderly progress in the new round of manufacturing construction. To promote the integration of industrialization and industrialization, we should take the efforts of the older generation of leaders to promote informatization to promote the new digital work in the 14th Five Year Plan period. Focus on industrial development and increase industry finance cooperation.

The third is to coordinate and promote the carbon peak carbon neutralization work“ The "double carbon" work is the hot work of the whole society. We should establish first and then break down, find the shortcut of carbon emission reduction, grasp the rhythm, and promote the development of the industry in a coordinated and orderly manner.

Fourth, balance security and development. As the epidemic situation tends to stabilize, the global industrial layout and market layout will become a prominent problem. It is necessary to stabilize the scale and system advantages of textile in China.

Gao Yong, Secretary General of the Party committee and Secretary General of China Textile Industry Federation, made a concluding speech and pointed out: through today's mid year economic operation analysis meeting, we hope that the staff of China Textile Federation and various professional associations can have a clear understanding of the position of textile industry in the national economy and industrial system. As the industry with the highest degree of marketization in the industrial system, the market sensitivity of economic operation data of textile industry is relatively high.

Gao Yong put forward new requirements for the data statistics and analysis work of China Textile Federation and various professional associations, hoping to be more in-depth, comprehensive and detailed. The operation analysis of different industries should be carried out based on the special attributes of their industries, and the focus issues of the whole industry should be focused on, so as to finally form a clear hint for the development of the whole textile industry.

Gao Yong said that he agreed with the industry's forecast of "stable and good" in the second half of the year, but he reminded industries and enterprises that they should pay more attention to the complexity and diversity of the development environment at home and abroad, and pay close attention to the changes in the situation.

Joint report of textile and garment weekly, China Textile and textile economic information network