Release Of Cold Wave Blue Warning To Speed Up The Clothing Season Change, The Demand Is Expected To Gradually Release

The decline of clothing enterprises in the first and third quarters was mainly due to the weak terminal sales, and the market expected that the profit performance of the third quarter was average

Affected by the epidemic situation and other factors, the terminal sales of clothing enterprises in the third quarter was weak. In September, the sales of Taoxi platform in clothing, shoes and bags industry decreased by 25% year on year, and the decline rate was 17% higher than that in August. In terms of categories, the sales of women's wear in September decreased by 19% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 18% higher than that in August; In September, the sales of men's wear decreased by 33% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 26% higher than that in August; In September, the sales of sportswear decreased by 32% year on year, and the decline was 152% more than that in August.

From the perspective of brands, Hailan home performs better than other brands

1) Hailan home: in September, the sales of official flagship stores decreased by 2% year-on-year, of which, the cumulative sales growth rate from January to September was 30%;

2) SEMAR clothing: the sales of SEMAR brand in September decreased by 27% year-on-year, among which, the cumulative sales growth rate from January to September was - 1%; The sales volume of balabalabala brand in September decreased by 43% year-on-year, among which, the cumulative growth rate of sales from January to September was - 2%;

3) taipingniao: the sales of taipingniao men's wear in September decreased by 49% year-on-year, among which, the cumulative growth rate of sales from January to September was - 17%; The sales volume of taipingniao women's wear decreased by 44% year on year in September, among which, the cumulative growth rate of sales volume from January to September was - 13%; The sales volume of minipeace brand in September decreased by 40% year-on-year, among which, the cumulative growth rate of sales from January to September was - 11%;

Due to the weak sales data in the third quarter, the market expects the performance of Listed Companies in the clothing industry to be flat in the third quarter. Under this expectation, the main listed companies in the clothing industry have a certain range of callback in the third quarter.

Second, the cold winter in the fourth quarter is expected to strengthen, and the demand for changing seasons due to warmer weather in the third quarter is expected to gradually release.

According to the report, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States announced on October 14 that the La Nina phenomenon has returned. It is expected that the La Nina phenomenon will maintain a certain intensity throughout the winter and will weaken after entering the spring.

The so-called La Nina phenomenon refers to the abnormal cooling of the sea water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It is mainly due to the southeast trade wind blowing the hot sea water on the surface to the west of the Pacific Ocean, resulting in higher sea level in the West than in the East, higher sea temperature and lower atmospheric pressure. At the same time, the bottom sea water in the eastern part turned up, resulting in the cooling of the sea water in the East Pacific Ocean.

Due to the rising temperature and lower pressure in the Western Pacific near the equator, it will be easier to attract high-pressure cold air from the north to move southward and pull down the temperature, thus forming a cold winter effect in China. In this regard, the Japan Meteorological Agency also said in its long-term climate forecast that the cold air masses over Asia may be easier to go south this year, and the cold climate is expected to increase this year.

Specifically, China's central meteorological station also issued a blue warning of cold wave on October 15. The strong cold air affected a wide range, and many places will have "cliff" cooling. It is expected that the strong cold air will sweep the central and eastern China all the way down, and the temperature in most areas will drop by 6-10 ℃. The southern part of the northeast region, the eastern part of North China, the eastern part of the Huanghuai River, the Yangtze Huaihe River and the Huaihe River In the northeast of the south of the Yangtze River, the temperature drops by 12-14 ℃ and reaches above 14 ℃ locally.

On the temperature of major cities, the lowest temperature in many places in Beijing fell below 0 ℃ for the first time in the morning of October 17, and the lowest temperature in the same period in mid October since 1969 appeared at the observatory. On the same day, the lowest temperature in Seoul will also drop to 1 degree Celsius, the lowest record in mid October in nearly 64 years.

Historically, the latest cold winter occurred from the end of 2017 to the beginning of 2018, when the cold winter weather significantly stimulated the sales of the clothing industry. In November 2017, the above quota wholesale and retail data of clothing, shoes, hats and knitwear categories were + 9.5% year-on-year, 1.5% higher than that in October; Clothing increased by 10.20% year-on-year, 1.3 percentage points higher than that in October. From the perspective of the company, the local brand taipingbird achieved a net profit of 303 million (+ 60.52%) in the fourth quarter of 2017, which exceeded the market expectation; From September 2017 to November 2017, UNIQLO's revenue increased by 16.7% year-on-year, and its net profit increased by 14.9% year-on-year. Its biggest driving force came from the unexpected growth of UNIQLO in mainland China and South Korea.

In the third quarter of this year, the textile and clothing industry was affected by the epidemic situation and warmer weather, and the consumer's demand for clothing in changing seasons was suppressed. The base number in 2020 was higher, and the situation of textile and clothing terminal retail was weak. However, the warm weather is only a delay in the demand for clothing in the new season, rather than the disappearance of the demand. According to the weather forecast, the fourth quarter of this year will usher in more cold current, and the accumulated clothing demand is expected to gradually release, which is expected to drive the performance of the clothing and textile industry to rebound.