Market Analysis: Various Factors Restrict Each Other; Zheng Mian'S Narrow Range Shocks

On Thursday, Zheng Mian's main contract fluctuated in a narrow range and closed at 17125 yuan/ton. ICE cotton fell, and the focus of the market now turns to the weekly export sales report to be released by the USDA in the evening. Many domestic factors restrict each other, focusing on the turnover of dumping and storage, downstream demand, new cotton output and price, etc.

Many domestic factors restrict each other. Xinhu Futures said that at this stage, there are many and short factors intertwined. The quota of sliding standard tax has been issued one after another when the policy of dumping and storing is increased. The certainty of supply increment is high. Although the downstream has improved seasonally, there is still a big gap compared with the same period of previous years. The fabric factory is running well, but the purchase and sales of the yarn factory are still upside down and gradually reduced. Most of the market has the consensus that the peak season is not prosperous this year. Based on the overcapacity of Xinjiang ginning plants and the year-on-year decrease of Xinjiang cotton output, the rush harvest expectation can not be verified and the purchase price of cotton wool is high at this stage. Based on the difference between the price of hand picked cotton and machine picked cotton in previous years, the opening price of machine picked cotton this year is more than 8 yuan/kg, further stimulating and strengthening the market's expectation of high opening price and rush harvest.

As for the focus of the market, Huarong Rongda Futures said that Zheng Mian is currently hovering at the 17000 integer level, and short-term focus on the weather in the production area and downstream consumption changes. New Lake Futures said that although the recent bad news has continued and the turnover of selling and storing has declined, the rush to collect can not be falsified, or there is still a pattern of bargain hunting and long selling of funds, or the operation of wide range shocks is dominant. In the long run, the dumping and storage policy may be extended to the listing of new cotton, and the import increase appears. The cotton yarn channel inventory is high, and the downstream operation is not smooth. There may be a large space below after the opening of the weighing machine.