Market Analysis: The External Market Trend Boosts Zheng Mian'S Rebound Space Is Limited

The external market trend was boosted, and Zheng Mian rebounded sharply. In terms of spot goods, the latest cotton price index at 328 level was 14965 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In terms of spot goods, in 2023/24, most of the quotations of Northern Xinjiang Machinery Procurement Co., Ltd. in 3129/29B/Miscellaneous 3.5 were CF01+1200 and above, and the basis difference of Hami with the same quality was CF01+400 and above, all of which were self raised by the Xinjiang warehouse.

The overall performance of the pure cotton yarn market is relatively flat, with no obvious change. The trading atmosphere of cotton yarn is general, most prices are stable, and some prices have risen, but the actual transaction is difficult. The market lacks confidence in the future market. The trading atmosphere in the pure cotton grey cloth market has weakened, and the orders are still small and scattered, while the prices of conventional varieties are weak, and some textile mills reflect that there may be sales in the future.

From the perspective of the overseas market, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50BP, and the dollar index fell week on week. With the position of American Cotton at the historical level, the game range of American Cotton moved up. However, in the case of continuous absence of Chinese buyers, the weekly export contract performance of American Cotton was average, and after the short-term positive release, it may maintain a volatile trend.

USDA: By the week of September 12, 2024/25, 24200 tons of American upland cotton had been contracted weekly, a weekly decrease of 8%, 23% lower than the average level of the previous four weeks; Vietnam signed 11700 tons, Pakistan signed 5500 tons; In 2025/26, 2400 tons of American cotton will be signed weekly; In 2024/25, 29500 tons of American cotton were shipped weekly, an increase of 9%, 13% lower than the average level of the previous four weeks, including 9100 tons from Pakistan and 4000 tons from Vietnam.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture, as of September 17, 2024, 34% of the cotton producing areas in the United States were affected by drought, 41% last week and 41% in the same period last year.

In the domestic market, boosted by the external market trend during the festival, the mainstream purchase price of hand picked cotton seed cotton has rebounded, and the purchase price of machine picked cotton seed cotton is about 6 yuan/kg, higher than the previous expectation, but the current purchase volume is small. There is little change in downstream demand as a whole. Textile enterprises maintain the status of "buy and use" and have weak confidence in the follow-up. Zheng Mian follows the fluctuation of the external market in the short term, with limited rebound space.

The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that China's yarn output in August was 1.882 million tons, down 0.5% year on year. China's cloth production in August was 2.65 billion meters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. China's chemical fiber output in August was 6.596 million tons, up 0.9% year on year. China's yarn output from January to August totaled 14.584 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. From January to August, China's cloth production accumulated to 21.31 billion meters, up 3% year on year. The output of chemical fiber in China from January to August totaled 52.037 million tons, up 10.6% year on year.