Market Observation: Focus On The Trends Of Yarn Import And Export In The First Ten Months In China

Since this year, China's foreign trade has withstood the pressure and demonstrated strong resilience. The total value of China's foreign trade import and export in the first 10 months was 36 trillion yuan, up 5.2% year on year. The cultivation of new drivers of foreign trade has accelerated, the international market share has continued to increase, and the contribution rate of China's exports to global export growth ranks first. The overall development of China's foreign trade has maintained a good momentum of steady growth in quality and quantity. From the perspective of intermediate trade:

Double growth of yarn and fabric exports from January to October

From the perspective of overall export of yarn and fabric, from January to October 2024, China's export of intermediate goods reached US $67.8 billion, up 4.1% year on year, mainly driven by fabric. In terms of specific products, yarn exports reached US $11.7 billion, up 0.5% year on year, and fabric exports reached US $56.1 billion, up 4.9% year on year.

From January to October, imports of intermediate goods continued to decline

From the perspective of imports, China's imports of intermediate goods continued to decline. From January to October, yarn and fabric imports reached US $6.57 billion, down 9.1% year on year. From the perspective of specific products, the import of yarn was USD 4.35 billion, down 11.8% year on year, and the import of fabric was USD 2.22 billion, down 3.3% year on year.

In October, the export of intermediate goods rose sharply, while the import continued to decline

In terms of exports, China's exports of intermediate goods in October were 7.27 billion US dollars, up 18.1% year on year, including 1.23 billion yarn exports, up 23.7% year on year, and 6.04 billion fabric exports, up 17% year on year.

From the perspective of import, in October, China imported intermediate goods of 650 million US dollars, down 22% year on year, including imported yarn of 410 million US dollars, down 29.4% year on year. Imported fabrics amounted to US $240 million, down 5.1% year on year.

Trump Announces Tariff Increase in China, Canada and Mexico

During the U.S. presidential election in 2024, Trump took tariffs as the core principle of his economic program. Recently, Trump also said on social media that he would sign an administrative order on the first day of taking office to impose 25% tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada, and 10% tariffs on Chinese products. After the imposition of tariffs in 2018, Mexico and Canada have become important "transit places" for Chinese goods to be exported to the United States. Chinese enterprises have also invested in Mexico. Trump's imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico should also be aimed at preventing Chinese goods from being exported to the United States through Canada and Mexico, thus excluding China from the North American supply chain, For example, Mexican President Simbaum said that the government has asked Mexican enterprises to replace Chinese made parts with locally made parts.

After assuming office, if the U.S. prioritizes its position to promote the return of manufacturing industry and impose tariffs on China, we will predict that before the implementation of the policy, foreign trade in textiles and clothing will compete for exports, and exports to the United States may grow rapidly in the first half of 2025; After the implementation of the policy, textile and clothing exports to the United States are expected to decline by 40-50% in the short term; In the long run, China US trade will be further decoupled, and the supply chain will accelerate its transfer overseas.

China's export to ASEAN maintained a double-digit growth

China's yarn and fabric exports to ASEAN, the largest market, maintained a double-digit growth.

This is mainly because the moderate destocking trend in the United States continues. Both the retail sales of clothing and apparel and the sales of clothing and apparel fabrics of wholesalers in the United States are at the highest level in nearly six years. It is expected that this trend will continue in 2025, which will play a leading role in China's export of intermediate goods.

From January to October, yarn and fabric exports to ASEAN continued to grow

ASEAN is China's largest yarn export market, accounting for more than 20% of China's total exports. From January to October, China's textile and clothing exports to ASEAN reached US $43.04 billion, up 6.4% year on year. The export of intermediate yarn and fabric reached US $22.6 billion, up 11.2% year on year. Among them, yarn export reached 2.61 billion US dollars, up 18.5% year on year; Exports of fabrics reached 19.99 billion US dollars, up 10.4% year on year. From the perspective of commodity structure, the export to ASEAN is mainly chemical fiber yarn, accounting for more than 75%, and the export of cotton yarn accounts for 12%.

The yarn export to ASEAN in October was 260 million dollars, up 20.6% year on year. It is mainly because the US market has entered the replenishment cycle, and the EU has also driven the growth of orders for intermediate goods such as yarn and fabric.

Vietnam: From January to October, China exported US $1.22 billion of yarn to Vietnam, up 22.1% year on year. In October, China exported US $130 million of yarn to Vietnam, up 29.3% year on year.

The recovery of demand for clothing and other manufactured goods in the United States and Europe has driven Vietnam's demand for intermediate goods in China. From January to August 2024, Vietnam's exports of textile and clothing products to the United States increased by 8.6%, to Japan by 6.4%, and to the EU by 8.8%.

Cambodia: According to the latest report issued by the Ministry of Finance and Economics (MEF), Cambodia's economy is expected to achieve 6% growth in 2024, and the garment processing industry will achieve 7.9% growth. Cambodia is now the second largest intermediate export country of China to ASEAN. From January to October, China's yarn export to Cambodia was 360 million dollars, up 35.6% year on year.

Myanmar: From January to October, China exported 81 million dollars of yarn to Myanmar, down 19.4% year on year; In October, China exported 6.153 million dollars of yarn to Myanmar, down 21% year on year. Affected by the political situation and European and American sanctions, China's export of intermediate goods to Myanmar has declined.

China's yarn exports to Pakistan increased significantly

From January to October, yarn exports to India reached US $790 million, down 36.8% year on year; In October, the yarn export to India was US $90 million, up 6.2% year on year.

From January to October, the yarn export to Pakistan was 880 million dollars, up 44.2% year on year; In October, the yarn export to Pakistan was 120 million US dollars, up 98.4% year on year. Pakistan's demand for China's high count yarn increased.

From January to October, the export of yarn to Bangladesh was US $1.04 billion, up 9.4% year on year; In October, the export of yarn to Bangladesh was 80 million dollars, up 2.1% year on year.

Yarn exports to the Middle East, North America and Europe declined

Middle East (21 countries): In October, Middle East countries accounted for 14.3% of China's yarn exports. From January to October, China's yarn exports to Middle East countries reached 1.7 billion US dollars, down 2.0%. Among the major exporters to the Middle East, Turkey's yarn exports declined by 17.3%; Exports to Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Morocco increased by 10.4%, 24.2% and 3.8% respectively.

(Note: 21 countries in the Middle East: Turkey, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Morocco, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Tunisia, Israel, Iraq, Oman, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Sudan, Bahrain, Palestine)

America: From January to October, China's yarn exports to North America fell 19.5% year on year. The export of yarn to Latin America increased by 4.8% year on year, of which the export to Brazil, Colombia, Peru and other major export countries increased by 12.4%, 7.8% and 17.5% respectively, while the export to Mexico decreased by 7.0%. The opening of Qiankai Port jointly built by China and Peru has shortened the one-way shipping time between China and Peru to 23 days, saving at least 20% of logistics costs.

Europe: From January to October, China's yarn exports to Europe fell 9.5% year on year. Among the top ten countries and regions, Portugal and France grew by 15.2% and 10.4% respectively, while the other eight countries declined. The biggest drop was in Britain, down 24.3% year on year, followed by Poland and the Netherlands, down 23.3% and 21.4% respectively.

The export volume of yarn decreased, and the export unit price increased slightly

From January to October, the export of yarn was 5.085 million tons, down 0.8% year on year; The unit price was 2.30 USD/kg, up 1.3% year on year. The decline in the number of yarn exports narrowed, and the export unit price increased slightly.

In terms of specific products, the export of cotton yarn from January to October 2024 will be 243000 tons, an increase of 23%; The export volume was 980 million US dollars, up 21.8%. The export of chemical fiber yarn was 4.799 million tons, down 1.7%; The export volume was 97.63 billion US dollars, up 0.4%. The export of silk yarn was 2573 kg, up 5.7%; The export volume was US $1.3, down 3.6% year on year; The export of wool, animal hair and yarn was 19000 tons, down 10%; The export volume was 550 million US dollars, down 27.4% year on year.

Export growth of Jiangsu, Shandong and Guangdong among major provinces and cities

Coastal provinces and cities are the main exporters of yarn. The top five provinces and cities are Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong and Guangdong, accounting for 80% in total. All the five provinces and cities increased, except Zhejiang and Fujian. The export of Jiangsu Province was 2.71 billion US dollars, up 12.5% year on year, that of Shandong Province was 680 million US dollars, up 15.4% year on year, and that of Guangdong Province was 530 million US dollars, up 10.7% year on year. The export volume of Zhejiang and Fujian was US $4.52 billion and US $1.08 billion respectively, with a decrease of 5.3% and 4% respectively.

Imports fell sharply in October

In October, China imported US $410 million of yarn, a year-on-year decrease of 29.4%. The main sources of yarn imports in China all declined, including Vietnam, India, Pakistan and Uzbekistan, which declined significantly, respectively by 14%, 78.7%, 53.5% and 73.6%. Mainly due to the sharp decline in cotton yarn imports, cotton yarn fell 36.9% year on year.

From the perspective of major products, the import of cotton yarn from January to October 2024 was 2.97 billion US dollars, down 17.7% year on year, and the import volume was 1.244 million tons, down 9.8% year on year; The import of chemical fiber was US $1.19 billion, up 3.4% year on year; The import of silk yarn, wool and animal yarn was US $2.929 million and US $110 million respectively, up 47% and 14.4% year on year. China's yarn import is dominated by cotton yarn, accounting for 70% of the total yarn import.

From the perspective of import sources, the top five sources of imported cotton yarn are all from Asia, accounting for 90% of the total. From January to October 2024, China's imports of cotton yarn from the top five sources of cotton yarn, except Uzbekistan and Malaysia, declined. The imports of cotton yarn from Vietnam were 757000 tons, up 4.9% year on year, accounting for 60.9% of the total imports of cotton yarn. The import amount reached 1.58 billion, down 7.3% year on year, accounting for 53.2% of the total imports. China's cotton yarn imports from Uzbekistan and Malaysia increased by 21.4% and 13.6% respectively, while those from Pakistan and India decreased by 33% and 57.9% respectively.