Market Dynamics: Orders In Domestic Peak Season Are Less Than Expected, And Zheng Mian Returns To The Weak Shock

The final closing price of the 2505 contract, the main contract of Zheng Mian, rose 0.52% from the previous trading day to 13645 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

Zheng Mian futures rose today and returned to 13600. There is limited upward space and lack of upward drive. Fundamentals show no signs of improvement. Zheng Mian is expected to continue weak shocks. Follow up to pay attention to the marginal influence of external market trend, economic trend and domestic policy trend.

According to Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, there will be 12291 (- 17) cotton warehouse receipts on March 19, 2025, including 9070 (- 26) registered warehouse receipts and 3221 (+9) effective forecasts.

ICE American Cotton fell 0.76% overnight to close at 66.45 cents/lb. American cotton fell overnight. Although the export was strong in the data, and the planting area and willingness were reduced, the overall profit was positive, but the general decline in the peripheral markets dragged American cotton.

The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) said in a report that the cotton planting area in Brazil is expected to be 2091974 hectares this year, 3.2% higher than the estimated value last month and 0.2% higher than last year. The expected output is 9027745 tons, 0.2% higher than that of last month, 1.8% higher than that of last year.

According to the China Cotton Notary and Inspection Network, as of March 18, 2025, there were 1095 cotton processing enterprises in the cotton year of 2024 processing cotton and conducting notarial inspection in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. 29937698 bales of cotton were inspected nationwide, totaling 6.7603 million tons, an increase of 6300 tons over the previous day, with a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, of which 29431579 bales were inspected in Xinjiang, 6646800 tons in total, 5700 tons more than the previous day; The inspection volume in the mainland was 340524 bales, totaling 76000 tons.

BIMCO (Baltic Sea International Shipping Association) made public comments on the US 301 Act to take action against China. BIMCO used detailed data to explain that the built Chinese ships would not withdraw from the global fleet due to the proposed port charges, because this would lead to a shortage of global shipping capacity, unable to meet the global transport demand, and ultimately lead to a sharp rise in shipping costs. On the contrary, the shipping industry will look for ways to avoid costs, which will significantly increase the cost of shipping to and from the United States.

According to the General Administration of Customs, China will import cotton yarn (20235, - 80.00, -0.39%) 110000 tons, unchanged year-on-year, with an increase of 2.9%. From January to February 2025, the cumulative import of cotton yarn will be 210000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30000 tons, or 12.3%.

The weakening of US economic expectations has driven the US dollar to decline rapidly. The US dollar has fallen rapidly from 107.6 to around 103 since February 28. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is about to begin. It is almost impossible to cut interest rates. The trend of the US interest rate policy is also the focus of the current market.

Domestic peak season orders were less than expected, Zheng Mian returned to the weak shock, Zheng Mian's periodic market start still needs to wait, Zheng Mian's rise lacks support. Pay attention to whether the downstream and order conditions are improved.

On the whole, it is expected that Zheng Mian will be shocked in the short term, and the domestic policy and consumption peak season will be followed.