Systemic Risk Increases: Cotton Prices Are Expected To Continue To Shake Up.
A few days ago, the NDRC announced the new year's throwing and storing arrangements again. The announcement basically met the expectations, but the NDRC emphasized again that the sale date of March 6th was a slight reminder to the upstream ginning factory.
Recently, the ginning factory also began to increase sales force. Xinjiang cotton's current price is loose, the adjustment range is 100-150 yuan / ton, and the "double 29" hand picking platform pick up price is 15900 yuan / ton, the individual price is 16000 yuan / ton, the 3128B class price is 15600-15700 yuan / ton.
In contrast to the reserve cotton rotation policy this year and next year, considering the large scale of local spinning in Xinjiang this year, the quantity of Xinjiang textile enterprises that can supply the mainland can be reduced.
Textile enterprises
It is estimated that the stocking time will be longer. Therefore, from the supply and demand of cotton, there are not many substantive changes in this round of reserve cotton. Therefore, it is estimated that next year's reserve cotton production will not be too much pressure on the market.
Xinjiang cotton
There was a slight easing in the pportation of Xinjiang.
Domestic market
Last Friday, cotton fell at ICE low level, and ICE cotton contract closed 71.21 in March, down 0.51 (0.71%).
In November 25th, after the Thanksgiving Day, the market sentiment had not yet recovered, and the turnover was light. The futures contract of ICE futures dropped sharply in March. After that, the US cotton exports did not decrease, which helped cotton prices recover most of the land lost.
Akesu, Bachu and other places, cotton enterprises said that although in recent days Zheng wide oscillation, but the cotton spot market within the territory has been "no surprise", cotton enterprises adjust the amplitude of only 100-150 yuan / ton, "resistance, fall support" is the industry's common view.
28, 29, the southern Xinjiang market "double 29B/A" hand picked cotton platform gross weight pick up 15800-16000 yuan / ton, "double 28B/A" gross weight pick up price 15500-15700 yuan / ton, North Xinjiang "double 29/ double 30"
Machine picked cotton
The quotation for platform picking is generally over 15800 yuan / ton.
India Market
The delivery price of the local S-6 ginning plant in India has been stable for 4 consecutive days. It remained at 39250 rupees / candi (72.85 cents / pound) for 28 days, and Punjab's J-34 was reduced to 4110 rupees / Moore (72.70 cents / pound).
At present, there are 19 thousand and 600 tons of cotton lint on sale locally, including 5 thousand and 100 tons in Gujarat and 6 thousand and 800 tons in Maharashtra.
Pakistan Market
Affected by the export of India and Pakistan, cotton prices in Pakistan continued to rise on the 28 day, and the price of the ginning factory was 6300-6500 rupees / mod, which increased by 100 rupee / mod on Friday, and 4500-5500 rupees / Moore.
It is understood that, in Pakistan, some shipments of India cotton are currently unable to clear customs, the local textile enterprises are anxious to wait for the results; India side is on Pakistan's "agricultural products" export ban.
Combined with the above factors, cotton growers and cotton ginning plants in the upper reaches of Pakistan will boldly increase the price of new flowers while India's cotton exports are supplied with a "chain breaking" mechanism.
According to the Minister of food safety and research of Pakistan, Pakistan will not allow the import of duty-free cotton in order to protect the interests of its own cotton farmers. The import tax of cotton will only be adjusted only after all the new flowers of Pakistan real estate are sold.
The relevant rules and regulations will be promulgated within two months after the Pakistan breeder rights legislation is established.
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