In March, China'S Manufacturing PMI Rose To 52%.

Core reading

In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 52%, up 16.3 percentage points from last month, and the overall economy expanded from last month.

In March, the 21 manufacturing industries PMI picked up in varying degrees, showing the overall improvement of market supply and demand, the gradual emergence of policy effects, and the rapid recovery of new kinetic energy. China's overall efforts to promote the prevention and control of new crown pneumonia and economic and social development have achieved positive results.

In March 31st, the China Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released by the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing, showed that manufacturing PMI was 52%, up 16.3 percentage points from last month; the non manufacturing business activity index was 52.3%, up 22.7 percentage points from last month; the comprehensive PMI output index was 53%, up 24.1 percentage points from last month.

"In March, China's overall efforts to promote the prevention and control of new crown pneumonia and economic and social development achieved positive results, and the resumption of work and production accelerated significantly. China's purchasing managers' index fell sharply last month. Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Investigation Center, said.

In March, more than half of the enterprises' production and business conditions improved.

PMI is a monthly ratio index reflecting the economic trend, which can sensitively reflect the short-term changes in the economy. Generally speaking, 50% is regarded as the dividing line of prosperity and drought. When PMI is above 50%, it reflects the overall expansion of the economy from the previous month; below 50% reflects the overall contraction of the economy from the previous month.

"The PMI index of manufacturing industry in March is 52%, which can be intuitively understood that more than half of the enterprises in March have improved their production and operation conditions than in February." Zhao Qinghe explained.

In March, PMI of 21 manufacturing industries rose to varying degrees, showing four main characteristics.

The supply and demand of the market has improved, and the purchase of enterprises has increased. In March, the manufacturing production index and the new orders index were 54.1% and 52% respectively, up 26.3 and 22.7 percentage points from last month. "Production index is 2.1 percentage points higher than the new order index, indicating that manufacturing capacity has recovered. The purchasing volume index was 52.7%, up 23.4 percentage points from last month, and the activity of purchasing activities was more active than that of last month. Zhao Qinghe said.

Iron and steel business platform - looking for steel net transaction data can support this recovery. "In February, the volume of platform steel trade was about 880 thousand tons, only 30% of the average level last year. But in March, there was an explosive growth. " Gong Yingxin, the party secretary and senior vice president of the steel network, said that in March, with the phased and important results of the epidemic prevention and control, the downstream manufacturing and construction industries were restarting rapidly. The average daily volume of steel on the steel network was about 160 thousand tons, about 4 times the volume of February transactions, and the total volume of the platform has been restored to the average level last year.

The policy effect is gradually showing and enterprises are expected to pick up. The manufacturing industry activity index is 54.4%, up 12.6 percentage points from February. Among them, food and alcoholic beverage refining tea, medicine, special equipment, automobile, computer communications and electronic equipment manufacturing industry were higher than the average level.

The new kinetic energy recovered faster and the PMI of high technology manufacturing industry was higher than that of the whole. From the key areas, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries is 55.8%, 54.5% and 52%, of which the PMI of high technology manufacturing is 3.8 percentage points higher than that of the manufacturing industry.

"Since the resumption of work, our orders have increased by about 30% over the same period, and the export orders for delivery in March reached US $4 million 500 thousand." Yan Hong, Limited by Share Ltd's chairman, Yan Hong Jia, has not been idle recently. In March, the two phase of the total investment of 1 billion yuan in protective film, solar backplane and lithium battery aluminum plastic film project was officially launched. "The global market share of aluminum plastic film is 90% in Japan. Now the uncertainty of overseas epidemic is increasing, which is the occasion for us to take advantage of the substitution of import, and the future development prospect is worth it." Look forward to it! "

Enterprises of different sizes have recovered and the recovery of large enterprises is relatively fast. The PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 52.6%, 51.5% and 50.9% respectively, up 16.3, 16 and 16.8 percentage points from last month.

In addition, the non manufacturing business activity index also hit bottom. Among them, the construction industry accelerated recovery, the supply and demand has been released; the service industry generally recovered, in the 21 industries surveyed, except for the securities industry, other industries have picked up to varying degrees, including transportation, retail, banking and other industries business activity index is relatively high.

When PMI changes continuously for 3 months or more, the trend of economic operation can be reflected.

PMI fell to 28.9% in February this year. Why can it rebound in March?

A low base is the primary factor. "PMI reflects the economic change this month, which has a great relationship with the base of last month." The head of the State Statistics Bureau's Service Industry Survey Center said that since the beginning of this year, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has seriously affected China's economy, especially in February, the purchasing managers' index has dropped to the lowest point in history, and economic activities have contracted sharply in the short run. In March, the PMI and non manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index of the manufacturing industry in February dropped sharply. The data showed that the production and operation situation of the enterprises in March had obvious positive changes compared with February.

PMI rose to more than 50% in March, can it mean that the economy has returned to normal level?

"This does not mean that the actual production and operation of enterprises has been restored to the level before the epidemic." The head of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center told reporters that under normal circumstances, when PMI changes for 3 months or more, it can reflect the trend of economic operation. Only one month data up to the ups and downs, it can not be judged that China's economy has completely recovered to normal level. Whether we can achieve a trend of improvement, we need to continue to observe changes.

In addition, the PMI index is a monthly index, which is easy to be affected by factors such as working days, seasons, cardinal numbers and so on. Compared with the year-on-year indicators, the data amplitude is larger, which is more suitable for reflecting changes in the short-term economic situation. The year-on-year indicators generally reflect changes in the current period compared with the same period last year, and are less affected by seasonal factors. The data fluctuation is relatively smooth, which is more suitable for reflecting long-term trends, but lacks sensitivity to short-term changes.

Zhao Qinghe also said that although the manufacturing industry PMI rebounded sharply in March, the survey results showed that the pressure of production and operation remained relatively large. In March, the proportion of enterprises that reflected tight funds and insufficient market demand were 41.7% and 52.3% respectively, up 2.6 and 4.1 percentage points from last month.

Industrial chain recovery faces new challenges

"At the beginning of March, 300 new workers were also prepared to return the orders they had dropped. I didn't expect the epidemic to spread rapidly in foreign countries. In mid March, the notice of cancellation or delayed orders was gradually received. He Jiating, the head of Jiangxi Yifeng Zhongjie shoes industry Co., Ltd., was worried that the orders of the enterprises were mainly exported to Europe and the United States, and the export orders in the next few months were reduced by four or five. The loss of only one branch was nearly 4 million yuan per month.

"Can we make appropriate delay in the light of the actual situation in the near future in order to help enterprises tide over difficulties?" He Jiating suggested.

According to the survey data of the National Bureau of statistics, the new export orders index and import index of China's manufacturing industry in March were 46.4% and 48.4% respectively.

In addition, the recovery of small businesses needs to be strengthened. Although the PMI of small businesses has rebounded sharply to the expansion section, it is lower than the whole manufacturing sector, and the new order index is 49.7%, which is in the contraction area, indicating that the market demand pressure of small enterprises is greater.

"At present, domestic and international epidemic prevention and control and the economic situation are still undergoing major new changes. The pressure of China's epidemic input has increased, and economic development, especially the recovery of the industrial chain, is facing new challenges. The trend of purchasing managers' index needs to be continuously concerned." Zhao Qinghe said.